Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The American Express Community Stadium Sun, 24 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
0 Winner 3
Manchester United MUN
Full Time Sun, 24 May 3:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
|
Goal
Bryan Mbeumo - 44'
Patrick Dorgu - 33'

CONTEXT

Brighton and Hove Albion hosted Manchester United in a match that ended 0-3. Manchester United led 0-2 at halftime. Brighton held 52 percent possession while Manchester United had 48 percent. No red cards occurred for either team. Manchester United entered as the stronger side and claimed the win. Pre-match indicators reflected a 73.7 percent deviation with Manchester United as the deviation team. The outcome proved inconsistent with market alignment. Efficiency stayed in line with projections even though expected goals figures remained unavailable throughout the analysis.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester United produced a significant 73.7 percent structural deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be assessed because data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The 0-3 result showed no alignment with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals expectations were available in the provided match data.
  • Event impact: Manchester United's three goals formed the decisive event impact on the final score.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion to match dynamics or outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Barrott

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Bennett

1st Assistant

England

B. Antrobus

2nd Assistant

England

R. Ricardo

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.42
Yellow cards / match 3.51
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
VS
Manchester United M. Carrick
M. Carrick
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leeds United Rank: 87 L
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Newcastle United Rank: 88 L
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 D
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 W
Sunderland Rank: 81 D
Liverpool Rank: 93 W
Brentford Rank: 88 W
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Leeds United Rank: 88 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 1 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brighton & Hove Albion
50.95%
Draw
22.75%
Away Manchester United
26.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brighton & Hove Albion
+50.46%
Draw
+20.84%
Manchester United
-71.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.24
92.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United
Power Score
73.24
92.07
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
13
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brighton & Hove Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brighton & Hove Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brighton & Hove Albion
vs
Manchester United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.00
Manchester United 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.00
Manchester United 0.00
Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MUN had peak pressure around 62'.
  • BHA started the game with stronger pressure.
BHA Pressure MUN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MUN reached the top pressure at 62' (88.32).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Home
21 matches
Manchester United MUN Away
Match Record
9
Wins
11
1
Draws
1
11
Losses
9
Goals
28
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
28
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T14:30:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands
1 B. Verbruggen
M. Wieffer
Netherlands
27 M. Wieffer
J. van Hecke
Netherlands
6 J. van Hecke
L. Dunk
England
5 L. Dunk
F. Kadıoğlu
Türkiye
24 F. Kadıoğlu
J. Milner
Substitution
England
20 J. Milner
P. Groß
Germany
30 P. Groß
D. Gómez Amarilla
Substitution
Paraguay
25 D. Gómez Amarilla
J. Hinshelwood
Substitution
England
13 J. Hinshelwood
M. De Cuyper
Substitution
Belgium
29 M. De Cuyper
D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Substitution
England
18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Pitch
S. Lammens
Belgium
31 S. Lammens
L. Shaw
Substitution
England
23 L. Shaw
L. Martínez
Argentina
6 L. Martínez
H. Maguire
England
5 H. Maguire
N. Mazraoui
Substitution
Morocco
3 N. Mazraoui
M. Mount
Substitution
England
7 M. Mount
K. Mainoo
England
37 K. Mainoo
P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
Substitution
Denmark
13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
B. Fernandes
Portugal
8 B. Fernandes
A. Traoré
Ivory Coast
16 A. Traoré
B. Mbeumo
Substitution
Cameroon
19 B. Mbeumo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 24, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The American Express Community Stadium
Capacity :
31876
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Samuel Barrott
Simon Bennett
Black Antrobus
Ruebyn Ricardo

Statistics

Possession
BHA
51%
MUN
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 1
56 Dangerous attacks 43
52 Possession 48
0 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Attempts 0
34 Ball Safe 32
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
11 Successful Headers 3
2 Successful Dribbles 7
16 Throwins 12
9 Goal Kicks 15
10 Dribble Attempts 15
0 Assists 3

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
97 Attacks 69

Possession

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
18 Successful Long Passes 28
397 Successful Passes 369
463 Passes 446
37 Long Passes 61
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

5 Saves 2
8 Interceptions 10
39 Duels Won 39
16 Tackles 18

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
20 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
6.82
5
Lewis Dunk
Lewis Dunk Defender
6.96
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
7.05
24
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender
6.86
27
Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer Defender
6.88
13
Jack Hinshelwood
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder
6.74
10
Georginio Rutter
Georginio Rutter
Attacker74'
6.79
20
James Milner
James Milner Midfielder
6.66
17
Carlos Baleba
Carlos Baleba
Midfielder59'
6.64
25
Diego Gómez
Diego Gómez Midfielder
6.79
7
Solly March
Solly March
Midfielder59'
6.39
29
Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper Midfielder
6.78
11
Yankuba Minteh
Yankuba Minteh
Attacker46'
6.93
30
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß Midfielder
7.24
18
Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck Attacker
6.83
19
Charalampos Kostoulas
Charalampos Kostoulas
Attacker59'
6.74
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

31
Senne Lammens
Senne Lammens Goalkeeper
6.75
3
Noussair Mazraoui
Noussair Mazraoui Defender
6.86
15
Leny Yoro
Leny Yoro
Defender74'
6.63
5
Harry Maguire
Harry Maguire Defender
6.79
6
Lisandro Martínez
Lisandro Martínez Defender
6.86
23
Luke Shaw
Luke Shaw Defender
6.77
12
Tyrell Malacia
Tyrell Malacia
Defender82'
6.18
7
Mason Mount
Mason Mount Midfielder
6.79
39
T. Fletcher
T. Fletcher
Midfielder74'
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder
7.75
13
Patrick Dorgu
Patrick Dorgu Midfielder
6.92
61
S. Lacey
S. Lacey
Attacker62'
6.69
16
Amad Diallo
Amad Diallo Midfielder
7
37
Kobbie Mainoo
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder
6.84
19
Bryan Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo Attacker
6.99
11
Joshua Zirkzee
Joshua Zirkzee
Attacker74'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Tyrell Malacia → Luke Shaw
10th Substitution
Event
Georginio Rutter → Jack Hinshelwood
7th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Leny Yoro → Noussair Mazraoui
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Joshua Zirkzee → Bryan Mbeumo
9th Substitution
74'
Event
T. Fletcher → Mason Mount
6th Substitution
62'
Event
S. Lacey → Patrick Dorgu
5th Substitution
Event
Solly March → Diego Gómez
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Charalampos Kostoulas → Danny Welbeck
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Carlos Baleba → James Milner
2nd Substitution
59'
50'
Event
Patrick Dorgu
Goal awarded
48'
Event
Bruno Fernandes
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Yankuba Minteh → Maxim De Cuyper
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Kobbie Mainoo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
Event
Bryan Mbeumo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Patrick Dorgu
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Leny Yoro's header hits the post.
87
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Gross takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Solomon March takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Tyrell Malacia comes on for Luke Shaw.
79
Attempt Attempt
Charalampos Kostoulas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Shea Lacey takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Leny Yoro replaces Noussair Mazraoui.
75
Update Update
Georginio Rutter comes on for Jack Hinshelwood.
74
Update Update
Joshua Zirkzee replaces Bryan Mbeumo.
74
Update Update
Tyler Fletcher replaces Mason Mount.
70
Attempt Attempt
Charalampos Kostoulas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Gross takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Update Update
Shea Lacey is on, and Patrick Dorgu is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Amad Diallo Traore takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Baleba takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
59
Update Update
Charalampos Kostoulas replaces Danny Welbeck.
59
Update Update
Solomon March comes on for Diego Gómez.
59
Update Update
Carlos Baleba replaces James Milner.
58
Attempt Attempt
Diego Gómez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Dorgu takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Kobbie Mainoo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Amad Diallo Traore takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Dorgu takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
50
Update Update
VAR decision confirms the goal for Patrick Dorgu.
46
Update Update
Yankuba Minteh comes on for Maxim de Cuyper.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kobbie Mainoo receives a yellow card.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bryan Mbeumo scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Amad Diallo Traore.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Mbeumo scores with a left-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Diego Gómez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Diego Gómez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Luke Shaw takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Update Update
Patrick Dorgu scores with a header.
20
Attempt Attempt
Maxim de Cuyper takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Ferdi Kadioglu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Diego Gómez takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Manchester United converted first-half opportunities into a 2-0 lead that Brighton could not overturn. Possession favored Brighton yet produced no goals against a compact away defense. The significant deviation from market indicators underscored the visitors' clinical execution. Absence of expected goals data left performance efficiency comparisons reliant on observed results alone. No red cards interrupted play or altered team structures. Second-half adjustments by Brighton failed to generate meaningful chances. The 0-3 scoreline confirmed Manchester United's control from the opening period through to the final whistle.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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