Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The American Express Community Stadium Tue, 21 Apr - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
3 Winner 0
Chelsea CHE
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Danny Welbeck - 90+1'
Jack Hinshelwood - 56'
Ferdi Kadıoğlu - 3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Brighton & Hove Albion claimed a 3-0 victory over Chelsea at home, leading 1-0 at halftime and extending their advantage with two second-half goals. The hosts controlled 54% possession, reflecting their status as the stronger team. Chelsea managed 46% possession but failed to score, as Brighton's defense held firm without any red cards disrupting play. The result showed minimal structural deviation of 2.1%, with the outcome aligning with pre-match market expectations. Efficiency remained in line with projections, and no second-half adjustments or knockout elements influenced the match. This performance underscores Brighton's dominance in a straightforward win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1% favoring Brighton & Hove Albion.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Pawson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Betts

1st Assistant

R. Ricardo

4th Official

E. Smart

2nd Assistant

Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
VS
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: D
Burnley Rank: W
Liverpool Rank: W
Sunderland Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester United Rank: L
Manchester City Rank: L
Everton Rank: L
Newcastle United Rank: L
Aston Villa Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brighton & Hove Albion
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Chelsea
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.59
22.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
Power Score
28.59
22.64
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Brighton & Hove Albion Opponent-weighted form score
Chelsea Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Brighton & Hove Albion

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brighton & Hove Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.78
16.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.20
32.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brighton & Hove Albion +1.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Chelsea -1.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brighton & Hove Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Brighton & Hove Albion
vs
Chelsea
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BHA had peak pressure around 19'.
  • BHA started the game with stronger pressure.
BHA Pressure CHE Pressure
Pressure Index: BHA reached the top pressure at 19' (89.06).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Home
19 matches
Chelsea CHE Away
Match Record
5
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
5
Goals
24
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
24
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:03:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands
1 B. Verbruggen
M. Wieffer
Substitution
Netherlands
27 M. Wieffer
J. van Hecke
Netherlands
6 J. van Hecke
O. Boscagli
France
21 O. Boscagli
F. Kadıoğlu
Türkiye
24 F. Kadıoğlu
P. Groß
Germany
30 P. Groß
C. Noom Quomah
Cameroon
17 C. Noom Quomah
Y. Minteh
Substitution
Gambia
11 Y. Minteh
J. Hinshelwood
Substitution
England
13 J. Hinshelwood
K. Mitoma
Substitution
Japan
22 K. Mitoma
G. Rutter
Substitution
France
10 G. Rutter
Pitch
R. Lynch Sanchez
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
J. Hato
Netherlands
21 J. Hato
T. Chalobah
England
23 T. Chalobah
W. Fofana
Substitution
France
29 W. Fofana
M. Gusto
Substitution
France
27 M. Gusto
M. Cucurella
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
M. Caicedo Corozo
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
R. Lavia
Substitution
Belgium
45 R. Lavia
P. Lomba Neto
Portugal
7 P. Lomba Neto
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 E. Fernández
L. Delap
Substitution
England
9 L. Delap

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The American Express Community Stadium
Capacity :
31876
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Craig Pawson
Lee Betts
Ruebyn Ricardo
Edward Smart

Statistics

Possession
BHA
54%
CHE
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
13 Shots 3
54 Dangerous attacks 29
54 Possession 46
6 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
3 Goal Kicks 9
17 Throwins 18
7 Dribble Attempts 12
11 Successful Headers 10
11 Goal Attempts 2
81 Ball Safe 85
3 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 4
2 Assists 0

Attacking

100 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 84
527 Passes 456
56 Long Passes 43
454 Successful Passes 382
12 Key Passes 4
24 Successful Long Passes 14
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

32 Duels Won 37
0 Saves 4
7 Interceptions 8
14 Tackles 7

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 4
15 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI

1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
6.86
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
7.08
21
Olivier Boscagli
Olivier Boscagli Defender
6.89
24
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender
6.82
27
Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer Defender
6.93
34
Joël Veltman
Joël Veltman
Defender46'
6.78
11
Yankuba Minteh
Yankuba Minteh Midfielder
6.93
29
Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper
Defender77'
6.68
13
Jack Hinshelwood
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder
6.69
33
Matt O'Riley
Matt O'Riley
Midfielder90+2'
6.77
17
Carlos Baleba
Carlos Baleba Midfielder
6.58
22
Kaoru Mitoma
Kaoru Mitoma Midfielder
6.74
26
Yasin Ayari
Yasin Ayari
Midfielder82'
6.9
30
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß Midfielder
7.24
10
Georginio Rutter
Georginio Rutter Attacker
6.8
18
Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck
Attacker83'
6.8
Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
6.84
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
6.53
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
6.96
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
6.81
34
Josh Acheampong
Josh Acheampong
Defender90+2'
6.47
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6.98
49
Alejandro Garnacho
Alejandro Garnacho
Attacker46'
6.85
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Midfielder
6.89
7
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
6.97
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
7.07
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
6.64
14
Dário Essugo
Dário Essugo
Midfielder73'
6.5
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Attacker
7.26
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap Attacker
6.63
38
Marc Guiu
Marc Guiu
Attacker72'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matt O'Riley Jack Hinshelwood
9th Substitution
90+2'
90+2'
Event
Josh Acheampong Malo Gusto
8th Substitution
Event
Danny Welbeck
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
Event
Danny Welbeck Georginio Rutter
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Yasin Ayari Kaoru Mitoma
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Maxim De Cuyper Yankuba Minteh
5th Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Dário Essugo Roméo Lavia
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Marc Guiu Liam Delap
3rd Substitution
Event
Yankuba Minteh
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Jack Hinshelwood
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
Event
Joël Veltman Mats Wieffer
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Alejandro Garnacho Wesley Fofana
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Wesley Fofana
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Offside called against Chelsea. Marc Guiu is offside.
90
Update Update
Marc Cucurella of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion lead Chelsea 3-0. Danny Welbeck scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Josh Acheampong replaces Malo Gusto.
90
Update Update
Yasin Ayari from Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Brighton and Hove Albion winning 3-0 against Chelsea.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Josh Acheampong replaces Malo Gusto.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Matt O'Riley replaces Jack Hinshelwood.
89
Attempt Attempt
Moisés Caicedo's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Trevoh Chalobah.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Danny Welbeck replaces Georginio Rutter.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Yasin Ayari replaces Kaoru Mitoma.
82
Update Update
Offside called against Chelsea. Alejandro Garnacho is offside.
80
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Jan Paul van Hecke concedes.
80
Attempt Attempt
Marc Guiu's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Maxim De Cuyper replaces Yankuba Minteh.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Garnacho had a missed chance for Chelsea, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist was provided by Enzo Fernández.
75
Update Update
Offside called against Chelsea. Alejandro Garnacho is offside.
73
Update Update
Malo Gusto of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Dário Essugo replaces Roméo Lavia.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton and Hove Albion.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Marc Guiu replaces Liam Delap.
71
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Groß from Brighton and Hove Albion has his right-footed shot from the center of the box blocked.
70
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Joël Veltman concedes.
70
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Alejandro Garnacho's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Malo Gusto provided the assist.
67
Corner Corner
Brighton and Hove Albion win a corner after Robert Sánchez concedes.
67
Corner Corner
Jan Paul van Hecke of Brighton and Hove Albion had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the six-yard box just wide. The assist came from Pascal Groß, who delivered a cross following a corner.
66
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Ferdi Kadioglu of Brighton and Hove Albion takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Robert Sánchez of Chelsea. The assist comes from Kaoru Mitoma.
65
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Ferdi Kadioglu of Brighton and Hove Albion has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Robert Sánchez of Chelsea. The assist came from Kaoru Mitoma.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Groß of Brighton and Hove Albion.
63
Update Update
Liam Delap of Chelsea won a free kick on the right wing.
62
Corner Corner
Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton and Hove Albion missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box after a corner.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brighton and Hove Albion after Jorrel Hato concedes.
60
Update Update
Malo Gusto of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
60
Update Update
Foul by Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion.
60
Update Update
Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in defense.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Malo Gusto of Chelsea.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yankuba Minteh from Brighton and Hove Albion receives a yellow card for a foul.
58
Update Update
Marc Cucurella of Chelsea won a free kick in an attacking position.
58
Update Update
Yankuba Minteh from Brighton and Hove Albion commits a foul.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion lead Chelsea 2-0. Jack Hinshelwood scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Kaoru Mitoma from Brighton and Hove Albion shot with his left foot from the left side of the box.
50
Update Update
Enzo Fernández of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Roméo Lavia of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Roméo Lavia from Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Carlos Baleba of Brighton and Hove Albion.
49
Update Update
Joël Veltman of Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick on the right wing.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Garnacho against Chelsea.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Carlos Baleba of Brighton and Hove Albion.
48
Update Update
Roméo Lavia of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Roméo Lavia from Chelsea took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Brighton and Hove Albion leading Chelsea 1-0.
45
Update Update
Georginio Rutter of Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
Wesley Fofana of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
Fouled by Wesley Fofana of Chelsea.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Georginio Rutter of Brighton and Hove Albion.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wesley Fofana of Chelsea receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Joël Veltman replaces Mats Wieffer.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match score at Brighton and Hove Albion 1, Chelsea 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Alejandro Garnacho replaces Wesley Fofana.
42
Corner Corner
Chelsea wins a corner after Pascal Groß concedes.
41
Attempt Attempt
Trevoh Chalobah's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
40
Corner Corner
Chelsea wins a corner after Olivier Boscagli concedes.
38
Corner Corner
Brighton and Hove Albion win a corner after Marc Cucurella concedes.
31
Update Update
Olivier Boscagli from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in defense.
30
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
30
Update Update
Fouled by Pascal Groß of Brighton and Hove Albion.
27
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
27
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
24
Corner Corner
Chelsea wins a corner after Jan Paul van Hecke concedes.
23
Corner Corner
Brighton and Hove Albion win a corner, conceded by Wesley Fofana.
22
Attempt Attempt
Yankuba Minteh's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Georginio Rutter.
18
Attempt Attempt
Jack Hinshelwood's shot for Brighton and Hove Albion from the center of the box is blocked. Carlos Baleba provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
16
Attempt Attempt
Georginio Rutter had a missed chance for Brighton and Hove Albion, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but it went high and wide to the left. Pascal Groß provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
15
Corner Corner
Brighton and Hove Albion win a corner after Robert Sánchez concedes.
15
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Jan Paul van Hecke of Brighton and Hove Albion heads the ball from the center of the box, but Robert Sánchez of Chelsea saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Pascal Groß with a cross.
12
Update Update
Pedro Neto of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Georginio Rutter fouled a player from Brighton and Hove Albion.
11
Attempt Attempt
Georginio Rutter's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Kaoru Mitoma.
9
Update Update
Ferdi Kadioglu from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in defense.
7
Update Update
Offside called against Chelsea. Liam Delap is offside.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton and Hove Albion.
6
Update Update
Malo Gusto of Chelsea won a free kick in defense.
3
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Kaoru Mitoma from Brighton and Hove Albion has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Robert Sánchez from Chelsea. The assist came from Pascal Groß with a cross.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion lead Chelsea 1-0. Ferdi Kadioglu scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box after a corner.
3
Corner Corner
Brighton and Hove Albion win a corner, conceded by Robert Sánchez.

CONCLUSION

Brighton & Hove Albion's 3-0 triumph over Chelsea validated their pre-match stronger team status, with a controlled display featuring 54% possession and a solid defensive record. The minimal 2.1% structural deviation and full market alignment highlight a predictable outcome driven by home efficiency. Absent xG data limits deeper chance analysis, but the absence of red cards and events ensured an undistorted contest. This result positions Brighton favorably, demonstrating tactical discipline across both halves.

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