Brest vs Lens Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Francis-Le Ble Fri, 24 Apr - 6:45 PM
Ligue 1
Brest B29
3 3
Lens LEN
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Junior Dina Ebimbe - 42'
Lucas Tousart - 24'
Daouda Guindo - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Allan Saint-Maximin - 90+4'
Abdallah Sima - 64'
Florian Thauvin - 60'

CONTEXT

In a captivating Ligue 1 clash, Brest stunned Lens by racing to a 3-0 halftime lead despite possessing the ball just 35% of the time. Lens, deemed the stronger team, controlled 65% possession but struggled early against Brest's sharp counterattacks and defensive solidity. The second half transformed dramatically as Lens mounted a fierce comeback, scoring three goals to salvage a 3-3 draw. No red cards disrupted play, allowing both sides to showcase their strengths. Brest's early dominance defied expectations, while Lens's resilience highlighted their quality. This high-scoring affair ended level, reflecting football's unpredictability and both teams' determination.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 76.7% favored Lens.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as draw contradicted Lens favoritism.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Frappart

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Torregrossa

1st Assistant

A. Auger

2nd Assistant

A. Souifi

4th Official

Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
VS
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.19
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: D
Rennes Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: L
Monaco Rank: L
Le Havre Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Toulouse Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Angers SCO Rank: W
Lorient Rank: L
Metz Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brest
18.4%
Draw
23.34%
Away Lens
58.26%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brest
+15.16%
Draw
-66.19%
Lens
+51.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.11
30.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brest
Lens
Power Score
21.11
30.03
League Position
10
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Brest Opponent-weighted form score
Lens Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brest Lens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Brest

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Lens

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.57
44.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.69
20.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brest -2.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Lens +2.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brest
Lens
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brest Lens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brest Lens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brest
Lens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Brest
vs
Lens
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brest Lens
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brest Lens
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Brest
Lens
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEN had peak pressure around 23'.
  • LEN started the game with stronger pressure.
B29 Pressure LEN Pressure
Pressure Index: LEN reached the top pressure at 23' (79.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brest B29 Home
13 matches
Lens LEN Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
4
Goals
20
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
20
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:01:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Coudert
France
30 G. Coudert
K. Lala
France
77 K. Lala
B. Chardonnet
France
5 B. Chardonnet
S. Coulibaly
France
44 S. Coulibaly
D. Guindo
Substitution
Mali
27 D. Guindo
J. Chotard
France
13 J. Chotard
R. Del Castillo
Substitution
France
10 R. Del Castillo
L. Tousart
Substitution
France
24 L. Tousart
H. Magnetti
France
8 H. Magnetti
E. Dina Ebimbe
Substitution
France
7 E. Dina Ebimbe
L. Ajorque
France
19 L. Ajorque
Pitch
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
A. Masuaku
Substitution
DR Congo
27 A. Masuaku
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
A. Thomasson
France
28 A. Thomasson
M. Sangare
Mali
8 M. Sangare
R. Aguilar
Substitution
France
2 R. Aguilar
W. Saïd
Substitution
France
22 W. Saïd
F. Sotoca
Substitution
France
7 F. Sotoca
A. Sima
Substitution
Senegal
19 A. Sima

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 24, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Capacity :
15097
Attendance :
14550
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Steven Torregrossa
Alexis Auger
Azzedine Souifi
Stéphanie Frappart

Statistics

Possession
B29
39%
LEN
61%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 5
3 Shots 7
24 Dangerous attacks 81
35 Possession 65
0 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 9
20 Goal Kicks 3
17 Successful Headers 14
15 Dribble Attempts 15
18 Throwins 21
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
3 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 4
4 Goal Attempts 19
93 Ball Safe 84
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

71 Attacks 115
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 86
335 Passes 591
250 Successful Passes 511
59 Long Passes 56
30 Successful Long Passes 37
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
6 Key Passes 22

Defensive

17 Interceptions 11
11 Tackles 14
49 Duels Won 43
4 Saves 0

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 14
6 Total Crosses 32

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Stéphanie Frappart

Starting XI

30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
6.86
5
Brendan Chardonnet
Brendan Chardonnet Defender
7.05
27
Daouda Guindo
Daouda Guindo Defender
6.52
12
Luck Zogbé
Luck Zogbé
Defender88'
6.75
44
Soumaïla Coulibaly
Soumaïla Coulibaly Defender
6.7
77
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala Defender
6.71
7
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Junior Dina Ebimbe Midfielder
6.6
17
Mama Baldé
Mama Baldé
Attacker67'
6.75
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti Midfielder
6.82
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
6.97
99
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup
Attacker89'
6.49
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
6.88
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart Midfielder
6.58
4
Junior Diaz
Junior Diaz
Defender80'
6.94
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
7.18
Referee : Stéphanie Frappart

Starting XI

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
6.9
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.16
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
6.94
27
Arthur Masuaku
Arthur Masuaku Defender
6.93
6
Samson Baidoo
Samson Baidoo
Defender53'
7.09
2
Ruben Aguilar
Ruben Aguilar Midfielder
6.97
23
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid
Defender52'
6.79
8
Mamadou Sangaré
Mamadou Sangaré Midfielder
7.21
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Midfielder
7.09
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson Midfielder
7.25
7
Florian Sotoca
Florian Sotoca Attacker
6.63
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin
Attacker52'
7.32
19
Abdallah Sima
Abdallah Sima Attacker
6.71
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard
Attacker64'
6.89
22
Wesley Saïd
Wesley Saïd Attacker
7.15
9
Allan Saint-Maximin
Allan Saint-Maximin
Attacker53'
6.97

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Kenny Lala
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Allan Saint-Maximin
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90+4'
Event
Odsonne Édouard
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Pathé Mboup Romain Del Castillo
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Luck Zogbé Daouda Guindo
8th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Junior Diaz Lucas Tousart
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Junior Dina Ebimbe
7th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Mama Baldé Junior Dina Ebimbe
6th Substitution
67'
64'
Event
Abdallah Sima
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
64'
Event
Odsonne Édouard Abdallah Sima
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Florian Thauvin
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
55'
55'
Event
Mamadou Sangaré
2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Samson Baidoo  Arthur Masuaku
3rd Substitution
53'
Event
Allan Saint-Maximin Wesley Saïd 
4th Substitution
52'
Event
Florian Thauvin Florian Sotoca
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Saud Abdulhamid Ruben Aguilar
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
Event
Lucas Tousart
Header / 2nd Goal
24'
Event
Daouda Guindo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Brest wins a corner after Mamadou Sangaré concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Odsonne Édouard's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a concession by Grégoire Coudert.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Pathé Mboup.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Grégoire Coudert from Brest receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Florian Thauvin of Lens.
90
Update Update
Mama Baldé from Brest wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Grégoire Coudert concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul by Kenny Lala for Brest.
90
Update Update
Allan Saint-Maximin of Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kenny Lala from Brest receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Allan Saint-Maximin scores for Lens with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom right corner. The match is tied at 3-3.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Allan Saint-Maximin of Lens receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 3-3 between Brest and Lens.
90
Corner Corner
Odsonne Édouard's header from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the bottom right corner by Grégoire Coudert. The attempt was assisted by Allan Saint-Maximin's cross.
90
Attempt Attempt
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box that goes too high.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Pathé Mboup comes on for Romain Del Castillo.
89
Update Update
Florian Thauvin of Lens is caught offside.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Luck Zogbé comes on for Daouda Guindo due to an injury.
88
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Daouda Guindo from Brest.
87
Attempt Attempt
Odsonne Édouard from Lens hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Samson Baidoo of Lens.
85
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque of Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Junior Diaz comes on for Lucas Tousart.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Junior Diaz comes on for Lucas Tousart.
77
Corner Corner
Lens win a corner after Daouda Guindo concedes.
77
Corner Corner
Lens win a corner after Daouda Guindo concedes.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Grégoire Coudert concedes.
76
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Grégoire Coudert concedes.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Ismaëlo Ganiou of Lens.
76
Update Update
Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Romain Del Castillo from Brest.
74
Corner Corner
Lens win a corner after Brendan Chardonnet concedes.
72
Update Update
Foul by Ludovic Ajorque against Brest.
72
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
71
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson from Lens misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
68
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
68
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Mama Baldé comes on for Junior Dina Ebimbe.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
66
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque wins a free kick for Brest in the attacking half.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Odsonne Édouard comes on for Abdallah Sima.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Abdallah Sima scores for Lens with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Saud Abdulhamid's cross. The score is now Brest 3, Lens 2.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Odsonne Édouard comes on for Abdallah Sima.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Abdallah Sima scores for Lens with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Saud Abdulhamid's cross. The score is now Brest 3, Lens 2.
62
Update Update
Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdallah Sima of Lens.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Florian Thauvin scores for Lens with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the top right corner. The match score is now Brest 3, Lens 1.
56
Update Update
Daouda Guindo from Brest is caught offside.
55
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Malang Sarr for Lens.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrien Thomasson from Lens receives a yellow card.
54
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque of Brest misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it just a bit too high. He was assisted by Daouda Guindo's cross.
53
Update Update
Allan Saint-Maximin comes on for Wesley Saïd for Lens.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Samson Baidoo comes on for Arthur Masuaku due to an injury.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Saud Abdulhamid comes on for Ruben Aguilar.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Florian Thauvin comes on for Florian Sotoca.
50
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Romain Del Castillo from Brest.
50
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Arthur Masuaku from Lens.
48
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson from Lens misses with a header from the center of the box.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Brest 3, Lens 0.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Brest leading 3-0 against Lens.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
44
Update Update
Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brest 3, Lens 0. Junior Dina Ebimbe scores for Brest with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Ludovic Ajorque.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high, assisted by Mamadou Sangaré.
38
Corner Corner
Lens win a corner after Joris Chotard concedes.
38
Corner Corner
Abdallah Sima from Lens misses a header from the center of the box after a corner.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdallah Sima of Lens.
37
Update Update
Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest wins a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Sangaré's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Florian Sotoca provided the assist.
35
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Brendan Chardonnet concedes.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Ludovic Ajorque against Brest.
28
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson from Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
28
Update Update
Foul by Ludovic Ajorque against Brest.
28
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson of Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
26
Update Update
Foul by Lucas Tousart against Brest.
26
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson from Lens wins a free kick in the attacking half.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brest leads 2-0 against Lens as Lucas Tousart scores with a header from the center of the box.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Ludovic Ajorque for Brest.
23
Update Update
Foul by Ludovic Ajorque against Brest.
21
Update Update
Malang Sarr from Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
21
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Adrien Thomasson from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
18
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens wins a free kick in the defensive half.
13
Update Update
Florian Sotoca from Lens is caught offside.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Dina Ebimbe of Brest.
12
Update Update
Foul by Soumaïla Coulibaly of Brest.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Joris Chotard concedes.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Malang Sarr for Lens.
9
Update Update
Foul by Malang Sarr for Lens.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brest leads 1-0 with Daouda Guindo scoring from outside the box with a left-footed shot.
6
Update Update
Abdallah Sima of Lens is caught offside.
6
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens is flagged for offside.
5
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest.
4
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima from Lens misses a right-footed shot from the right side of the box after a fast break.

CONCLUSION

Brest's blistering 3-0 halftime lead masked their possession disadvantage, but Lens's 65% control fueled a second-half turnaround to a 3-3 draw. As the stronger side, Lens overcame early setbacks without red card interruptions, aligning with efficiency norms yet showing significant deviation from expected victory. The result underscores Brest's counterattacking threat and Lens's recovery power in a balanced contest. Both teams earned a deserved point, highlighting resilience and quality that thrilled spectators. This outcome maintains league intrigue, with implications for future positioning.

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