Brest vs Le Havre Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Francis-Le Ble Sun, 8 Mar - 4:15 PM
Ligue 1
Brest B29
2 Winner 0
Le Havre LEH
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
Ludovic Ajorque - 71'
Romain Del Castillo - 45+2'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Brest 1–0 Le Havre. The result saw Brest take the points. Brest showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 41%–59%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brest showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Bastien

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Berthomieu

2nd Assistant

D. Bovolenta

4th Official

H. Zakrani

1st Assistant

Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
VS
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: D
Lorient Rank: W
Nice Rank: D
Toulouse Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Nantes Rank: L
Toulouse Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: W
Lens Rank: L
Monaco Rank: D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brest
49.65%
Draw
27.95%
Away Le Havre
22.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48
34.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brest
Le Havre
Power Score
48
34.67
League Position
9
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brest Le Havre

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Le Havre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Le Havre
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.61
28.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.56
30.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brest +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Le Havre -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brest
Le Havre
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Le Havre
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brest Le Havre
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brest Le Havre
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brest
Le Havre
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brest B29 Home
5 matches
Le Havre LEH Away
Match Record
4
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
4
Goals
6
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
6
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:16:13+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Capacity :
15097
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Aurélien Berthomieu
D. Bovolenta
Benoît Bastien
Hicham Zakrani

Statistics

Possession
B29
43%
LEH
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
31 Dangerous attacks 57
41 Possession 59
1 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

58 Ball Safe 53
6 Successful Dribbles 8
27 Throwins 14
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
15 Dribble Attempts 20
5 Goal Attempts 2
12 Goal Kicks 7
10 Successful Headers 23
2 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
6 Substitutions 5

Attacking

97 Attacks 113
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

7 Key Passes 11
251 Successful Passes 407
75 Successful Passes Percentage 84
334 Passes 485
46 Long Passes 42
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
19 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

9 Interceptions 11
22 Tackles 15
0 Saves 1

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
13 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

15 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luck Zogbé → Bradley Locko
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Hamidou Makalou → Romain Del Castillo
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Pathé Mboup → Ludovic Ajorque
9th Substitution
90+2'
81'
Event
Yassine Kechta → Arouna Sangante
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Reda Khadra → Sofiane Boufal
7th Substitution
Event
Lucas Tousart → Kamory Doumbia
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Brendan Chardonnet
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Ludovic Ajorque
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Ludovic Ajorque
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Rémy Labeau Lascary → Junior Dina Ebimbe
4th Substitution
70'
64'
Event
Ally Samatta → Kenny Quetant
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Enzo Koffi Vinette → Yanis Zouaoui
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Stephan Zagadou → Gautier Lloris
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Romain Del Castillo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
45+2'
Event
Kamory Doumbia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
21'
Event
Yanis Zouaoui
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Lucas Tousart from Brest.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Hamidou Makalou replaces Romain Del Castillo.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Pathé Mboup replaces Ludovic Ajorque.
90
Update Update
That's a wrap! The match has concluded with Brest securing a 2-0 victory over Le Havre.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Brest leading Le Havre 2-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Issa Soumaré from Le Havre heads the ball from the center of the box, and it narrowly misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Pathé Mboup from Brest attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it narrowly went off target. The assist came from Rémy Labeau Lascary.
90
Update Update
Yassine Kechta from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Luck Zogbé comes on to replace Bradley Locko.
89
Update Update
Reda Khadra from Le Havre committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Bradley Locko from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The cross was delivered by Enzo Koffi.
88
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest earned a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Update Update
Simon Ebonog from Le Havre committed a foul.
88
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that just went wide. The assist came from Issa Soumaré after a quick counterattack.
85
Update Update
Hugo Magnetti from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Reda Khadra from Le Havre committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Simon Ebonog from Le Havre was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Lucas Tousart committed a foul against Brest.
84
Update Update
Enzo Koffi from Le Havre committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Lucas Tousart from Brest has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
83
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Reda Khadra.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Reda Khadra comes on to replace Sofiane Boufal.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Yassine Kechta comes on to replace Arouna Sangante.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Lucas Tousart replaces Kamory Doumbia.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brendan Chardonnet from Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
78
Update Update
Brendan Chardonnet from Brest committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Enzo Koffi from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
77
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
77
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
75
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
75
Update Update
Stephan Zagadou from Le Havre committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Bradley Locko from Brest has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
73
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ludovic Ajorque of Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
73
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Arouna Sangante from Le Havre.
73
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque committed a foul against a Brest player.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brest leads 2-0 against Le Havre. Ludovic Ajorque scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Kamory Doumbia.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kamory Doumbia from Brest fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rémy Labeau Lascary.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Rémy Labeau Lascary comes on to replace Junior Dina Ebimbe.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Le Havre after Junior Diaz allowed the ball to go out.
68
Update Update
Offside call against Brest. Junior Dina Ebimbe has been caught offside.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Kamory Doumbia from Brest attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area...
66
Update Update
Kamory Doumbia from Brest earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
66
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre committed a foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Mbwana Samatta replaces Kenny Quetant.
64
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Enzo Koffi is coming on to replace Yanis Zouaoui.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Stephan Zagadou comes on to replace Gautier Lloris, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Issa Soumaré from Le Havre attempted a header from the middle of the box, but it narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Yanis Zouaoui, who delivered a cross into the area.
62
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Gautier Lloris from Le Havre.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Issa Soumaré from Le Havre took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Arouna Sangante.
59
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert.
58
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre earned a free kick in an offensive position.
57
Update Update
Kenny Quetant from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Update Update
Kenny Lala from Brest committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Gautier Lloris from Le Havre committed a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Kenny Quetant from Le Havre took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar.
55
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque from Brest has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
53
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Ayumu Seko from Le Havre committed a foul.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Brendan Chardonnet from Brest fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Romain Del Castillo, who delivered a cross.
52
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Hugo Magnetti from Brest took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide. The assist came from Kamory Doumbia following a corner kick.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Ayumu Seko allowed the ball to go out.
47
Update Update
Simon Ebonog from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
47
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Brest leading Le Havre 1-0.
45
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Goal! Brest takes the lead 1-0 against Le Havre. Romain Del Castillo scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, finding the bottom right corner of the net. The assist comes from Kenny Lala.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Brest leading Le Havre by a score of 1-0.
45
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre committed a foul.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brest takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Le Havre. Romain Del Castillo finds the net with a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, placing the ball perfectly into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Kenny Lala.
45
Update Update
Junior Diaz from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Le Havre after a defensive play by Bradley Locko.
44
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left of the goal.
44
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
42
Update Update
Kenny Quetant from Le Havre committed a foul.
42
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Simon Ebonog from Le Havre takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rassoul Ndiaye.
41
Update Update
Brendan Chardonnet from Brest was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
40
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque committed a foul against Brest.
40
Update Update
Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre committed a foul.
39
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
39
Update Update
Bradley Locko from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kamory Doumbia of Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
38
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre.
37
Update Update
Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre earned a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Kamory Doumbia from Brest committed a foul.
35
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Romain Del Castillo from Brest took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
33
Update Update
Bradley Locko from Brest has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
33
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Hugo Magnetti from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Rassoul Ndiaye from Le Havre committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
23
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Rassoul Ndiaye from Le Havre attempted a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Yanis Zouaoui.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yanis Zouaoui from Le Havre has been shown a yellow card.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Arouna Sangante.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Le Havre after a foul by Bradley Locko.
16
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque committed a foul against Brest.
12
Update Update
Yanis Zouaoui from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Ayumu Seko from Le Havre took a right-footed shot from a long way out on the right side, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Lucas Gourna-Douath.
7
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Kenny Lala from Brest took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target following a free kick.
6
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
6
Update Update
Romain Del Castillo from Brest has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
3
Update Update
Simon Ebonog from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Brest exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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