Brentford vs Wolverhampton Wanderers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Gtech Community Stadium Mon, 16 Mar - 8:00 PM
Premier League
Brentford BRE
2 – 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL
Full Time Mon, 16 Mar 8:00 PM
Igor Thiago - 37'
Michael Kayode - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Tolu Arokodare - 77'
Adam Armstrong - 44'

CONTEXT

The match between Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers has officially finished, resulting in a 2-2 draw. Brentford took an early advantage, heading into halftime with a 2-1 lead, but Wolves ultimately fought back in the second half to level the score. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, particularly for the favored Brentford side. The pre-match market heavily backed the home team to win with a 60.7% probability, giving the draw just a 22.3% chance and a Wolves victory a mere 16.9%. Consequently, the final draw did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Play on the pitch was highly competitive and balanced. Wolverhampton Wanderers edged possession slightly, holding 51% of the ball compared to Brentford's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the quality of scoring opportunities created by either side. However, overall efficiency shifts remained in line with general performance expectations. Additionally, the match concluded without any red cards, ensuring that major disciplinary events did not impact the final outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brentford showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Attwell

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Robinson

4th Official

C. Hatzidakis

1st Assistant

T. Wood

2nd Assistant

Brentford K. Andrews
K. Andrews
VS
Wolverhampton Wanderers R. Edwards
R. Edwards
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.41
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: 92 W
Aston Villa Rank: 94 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 86 L
Chelsea Rank: 94 L
Sunderland Rank: 83 W
Everton Rank: 88 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 86 D
Chelsea Rank: 94 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 L
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Newcastle United Rank: 92 D
Everton Rank: 88 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brentford
60.74%
Draw
22.34%
Away Wolverhampton Wanderers
16.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.32
67.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brentford
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Power Score
72.32
67.11
League Position
7
20
Global Rank
18
53

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brentford — Opponent-weighted form score
Wolverhampton Wanderers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brentford Wolverhampton Wanderers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brentford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brentford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wolverhampton Wanderers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.80
30.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.98
24.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brentford -0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brentford
Wolverhampton Wanderers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brentford
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brentford Wolverhampton Wanderers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brentford Wolverhampton Wanderers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Brentford
Wolverhampton Wanderers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brentford BRE Home
19 matches
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
4
Draws
4
8
Losses
7
Goals
30
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
30
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T12:55:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
C. Kelleher
Republic of Ireland
1 C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
Italy
33 M. Kayode
S. van den Berg
Netherlands
4 S. van den Berg
N. Collins
Republic of Ireland
22 (C) N. Collins
K. Lewis-Potter
England
23 K. Lewis-Potter
J. Henderson
England
6 J. Henderson
Dango Ouattara
Substitution
Burkina Faso
19 Dango Ouattara
M. Jensen
Denmark
8 M. Jensen
M. Damsgaard
Substitution
Denmark
24 M. Damsgaard
K. Schade
Substitution
Germany
7 K. Schade
Thiago
Brazil
9 Thiago
Pitch
J. Malheiro de Sá
Portugal
1 (C) J. Malheiro de Sá
L. Krejčí
Czech Republic
37 L. Krejčí
S. Bueno Sciutto
Uruguay
4 S. Bueno Sciutto
Y. Mosquera
Colombia
15 Y. Mosquera
H. Bueno
Spain
3 H. Bueno
Gomes
Brazil
8 Gomes
A. Trindade da Costa Neto
Brazil
7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
J. Tchatchoua
Belgium
38 J. Tchatchoua
M. Mané
Substitution
England
36 M. Mané
J. Bellegarde
Substitution
France
27 J. Bellegarde
A. Armstrong
Substitution
England
9 A. Armstrong

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 16, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
Gtech Community Stadium
Capacity :
17250
Attendance :
17155
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stuart Attwell
Tim Robinson
Constantine Hatzidakis
Tim Wood

Statistics

Possession
BRE
49%
WOL
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 6
43 Dangerous attacks 56
49 Possession 51
1 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

16 Throwins 26
5 Dribble Attempts 16
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
21 Successful Headers 9
7 Goal Kicks 13
2 Successful Dribbles 6
2 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 2
3 Substitutions 3
67 Ball Safe 72
10 Goal Attempts 8
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 88
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 80
416 Passes 417
318 Successful Passes 334
61 Long Passes 62
9 Key Passes 12
25 Successful Long Passes 28
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

15 Tackles 7
11 Interceptions 7
48 Duels Won 35
2 Saves 1

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 26
7 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Stuart Attwell

Starting XI ▼

1
Caoimhín Kelleher
Caoimhín Kelleher Goalkeeper
6.52
4
Sepp van den Berg
Sepp van den Berg Defender
7.43
22
Nathan Collins
Nathan Collins (C) Defender
6.4
23
Keane Lewis-Potter
Keane Lewis-Potter Defender
7.09
33
Michael Kayode
Michael Kayode Defender
7.72
6
Jordan Henderson
Jordan Henderson Midfielder
6.73
7
Kevin Schade
Kevin Schade Midfielder
6.46
18
Yegor Yarmolyuk
Yegor Yarmolyuk
Midfielder68'
6.52
8
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen Midfielder
6.74
19
Dango Ouattara
Dango Ouattara Midfielder
7.79
11
Reiss Nelson
Reiss Nelson
Attacker85'
6.29
24
Mikkel Damsgaard
Mikkel Damsgaard Midfielder
7.01
20
Kristoffer Ajer
Kristoffer Ajer
Defender72'
6.25
9
Igor Thiago
Igor Thiago Attacker
6.53
Referee : Stuart Attwell

Starting XI ▼

1
José Sá
José Sá (C) Goalkeeper
6.6
4
Santiago Bueno
Santiago Bueno Defender
6.64
15
Yerson Mosquera
Yerson Mosquera Defender
6.71
37
Ladislav Krejci
Ladislav Krejci Defender
6
3
Hugo Bueno
Hugo Bueno Midfielder
6.74
7
André
André Midfielder
6.75
8
João Gomes
João Gomes Midfielder
7.21
38
Jackson Tchatchoua
Jackson Tchatchoua Midfielder
7.02
9
Adam Armstrong
Adam Armstrong Attacker
6.75
21
Rodrigo Gomes
Rodrigo Gomes
Defender87'
27
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Attacker
7.11
14
Tolu Arokodare
Tolu Arokodare
Attacker74'
7.15
36
Mateus Mané
Mateus Mané Attacker
6.49
47
Angel Gomes
Angel Gomes
Midfielder46'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
José Sá
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Angel Gomes
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Rodrigo Gomes → Adam Armstrong
6th Substitution
Event
Reiss Nelson → Dango Ouattara
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Kristoffer Ajer
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
77'
Event
Tolu Arokodare
Header / 4th Goal
74'
Event
Tolu Arokodare → Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
4th Substitution
Event
Kristoffer Ajer → Mikkel Damsgaard
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Yegor Yarmolyuk → Kevin Schade
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Nathan Collins
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Angel Gomes → Mateus Mané
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Ladislav Krejci
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Adam Armstrong
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Igor Thiago
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
37'
24'
Event
Adam Armstrong
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Michael Kayode
Header / 1st Goal
22'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Reiss Nelson from Brentford attempted a header from the middle of the box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Jordan Henderson.
90
Update Update
Mathias Jensen from Brentford earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Yerson Mosquera committed a foul for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
90
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
José Sá from Wolverhampton Wanderers has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Hugo Bueno from Wolverhampton Wanderers committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! André from Wolverhampton Wanderers took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The chance was set up by Yerson Mosquera following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Jordan Henderson allowed the ball to go out.
89
Update Update
Angel Gomes committed a foul against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
89
Update Update
Mathias Jensen from Brentford was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Angel Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Kristoffer Ajer allowed the ball to go out.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: Rodrigo Gomes is coming on to replace Adam Armstrong.
87
Update Update
João Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford committed a foul.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Reiss Nelson comes on to replace Dango Ouattara.
82
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare committed a foul against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
80
Update Update
Close opportunity! Keane Lewis-Potter of Brentford heads the ball from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Yehor Yarmoliuk, who delivered a great cross.
79
Update Update
Tolu Arokodare of Wolverhampton Wanderers strikes the crossbar with a header from the middle of the penalty area.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristoffer Ajer of Brentford has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
77
Update Update
Jackson Tchatchoua from Wolverhampton Wanderers earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
77
Update Update
Kristoffer Ajer from Brentford committed a foul.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Brentford 2, Wolverhampton Wanderers 2. Tolu Arokodare of Wolverhampton Wanderers heads the ball into the right corner from just a few meters out. The assist came from João Gomes.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Michael Kayode allowed the ball to go out.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: Tolu Arokodare comes on to replace Jean-Ricner Bellegarde.
74
Update Update
Mathias Jensen from Brentford committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde of Wolverhampton Wanderers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Kristoffer Ajer comes on to replace Mikkel Damsgaard due to an injury.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
70
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Mikkel Damsgaard from Brentford.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Yehor Yarmoliuk comes on to replace Kevin Schade.
68
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Sepp van den Berg of Brentford attempted a header from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Michael Kayode.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Kevin Schade allowed the ball to go out.
62
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Update Update
Jordan Henderson committed a foul against Brentford.
61
Update Update
Jordan Henderson from Brentford was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde from Wolverhampton Wanderers committed a foul.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nathan Collins from Brentford has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Angel Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert.
60
Update Update
Angel Gomes committed a foul against a player from Wolverhampton Wanderers.
57
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong of Wolverhampton Wanderers strikes the left post with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, assisted by Jackson Tchatchoua.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jackson Tchatchoua from Wolverhampton Wanderers attempted a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brentford after Jean-Ricner Bellegarde allowed the ball to go out.
53
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Jackson Tchatchoua from Wolverhampton Wanderers takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
50
Update Update
Igor Thiago from Brentford committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Santiago Bueno of Wolverhampton Wanderers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
45
Update Update
João Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers committed a foul.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ladislav Krejcí of Wolverhampton Wanderers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Brentford leading Wolverhampton Wanderers by a score of 2-1.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Brentford leading Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1.
45
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Sepp van den Berg of Brentford heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but José Sá, the goalkeeper for Wolverhampton Wanderers, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Dango Ouattara, who delivered a well-placed cross.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wolverhampton Wanderers: Angel Gomes comes on to replace Mateus Mané.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Brentford 2, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brentford 2, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1. Adam Armstrong from Wolverhampton Wanderers scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Jean-Ricner Bellegarde.
43
Update Update
João Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Igor Thiago from Brentford committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Igor Thiago from Brentford strikes the crossbar with a header from close range.
39
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Ladislav Krejcí of Wolverhampton Wanderers attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Mateus Mané, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Michael Kayode allowed the ball to go out.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Missed opportunity. Mateus Mané of Wolverhampton Wanderers attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from André.
36
Update Update
Offside call against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Adam Armstrong has been caught offside.
36
Attempt Attempt
André from Wolverhampton Wanderers attempts a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully intercepted.
36
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Brentford leads 2-0 against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Igor Thiago scores for Brentford with a right-footed shot from close range.
36
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Jackson Tchatchoua of Wolverhampton Wanderers.
35
Update Update
Yerson Mosquera of Wolverhampton Wanderers was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
35
Update Update
Kevin Schade from Brentford committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde of Wolverhampton Wanderers was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
32
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford committed a foul.
31
Update Update
João Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers earned a free kick in an offensive position.
31
Update Update
Mathias Jensen from Brentford committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Nathan Collins committed a foul against Brentford.
30
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde from Wolverhampton Wanderers earned a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Offside call against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Jackson Tchatchoua has been flagged for being in an offside position.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Igor Thiago from Brentford attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
26
Update Update
Hugo Bueno from Wolverhampton Wanderers earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
26
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford committed a foul.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adam Armstrong of Wolverhampton Wanderers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
23
Update Update
Sepp van den Berg from Brentford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Adam Armstrong committed a foul against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brentford takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Michael Kayode scores with a header from the center of the penalty area.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Dango Ouattara allowed the ball to go out.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after Dango Ouattara allowed the ball to go out.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wolverhampton Wanderers after a defensive play by Keane Lewis-Potter.
11
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Mikkel Damsgaard from Brentford took a shot with his right foot from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Dango Ouattara.
10
Update Update
João Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers earned a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Kevin Schade from Brentford was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Jackson Tchatchoua from Wolverhampton Wanderers committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Brentford exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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