Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Signal Iduna Park Sat, 14 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund BVB
2 Winner 0
FC Augsburg FCA
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:30 PM
Luca Reggiani - 59'
Karim Adeyemi - 13'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Borussia Dortmund securing a 2-0 full-time victory over FC Augsburg. The home side established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at half-time before doubling their tally in the second half to comfortably seal the win. Going into the contest, Borussia Dortmund were the clear favorites, holding a 63.2% implied probability of winning according to the pre-match market. FC Augsburg sat at just 16.3% for an away win, with a draw valued at 20.5%. The final outcome was completely market aligned. However, the data highlights a significant deviation level of 36.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Borussia Dortmund showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Dankert

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Wessel

2nd Assistant

R. Rohde

1st Assistant

T. Bauer

4th Official

Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
VS
FC Augsburg M. Baum
M. Baum
2.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heidenheim Rank: 70 W
FC Union Berlin Rank: 76 W
St. Pauli Rank: 73 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 84 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 76 W
Heidenheim Rank: 70 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 79 L
St. Pauli Rank: 73 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 7 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Borussia Dortmund
63.21%
Draw
20.48%
Away FC Augsburg
16.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.39
75.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Borussia Dortmund
FC Augsburg
Power Score
89.39
75.44
League Position
2
10
Global Rank
15
87

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Augsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Augsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Borussia Dortmund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.31
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
31.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Borussia Dortmund +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Augsburg -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Dortmund
FC Augsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Borussia Dortmund
vs
FC Augsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Borussia Dortmund
FC Augsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Borussia Dortmund BVB Home
11 matches
FC Augsburg FCA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
6
Goals
21
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
21
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:57:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
L. Reggiani
Italy
49 L. Reggiani
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck
Germany
4 (C) N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
M. Sabitzer
Substitution
Austria
20 M. Sabitzer
J. Bellingham
England
7 J. Bellingham
F. Nmecha
Substitution
Germany
8 F. Nmecha
D. Svensson
Substitution
Sweden
24 D. Svensson
K. Adeyemi
Substitution
Germany
27 K. Adeyemi
M. Beier
Substitution
Germany
14 M. Beier
Pitch
F. Dahmen
Germany
1 F. Dahmen
C. Zesiger
Switzerland
16 C. Zesiger
K. Schlotterbeck
Germany
31 (C) K. Schlotterbeck
A. Largura Chaves
Brazil
34 A. Largura Chaves
D. Giannoulis
Substitution
Greece
13 D. Giannoulis
H. Massengo
Substitution
France
4 H. Massengo
K. Jakić
Substitution
Croatia
17 K. Jakić
R. Fellhauer
Germany
19 R. Fellhauer
A. Claude Maurice
Substitution
France
20 A. Claude Maurice
F. Rieder
Switzerland
32 F. Rieder
R. Duarte Ribeiro
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Duarte Ribeiro

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium :
Signal Iduna Park
Capacity :
81365
Attendance :
81365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bastian Dankert
Robert Edgar Wessel
René Rohde
Tom Bauer

Statistics

Possession
BVB
61%
FCA
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 7
62 Dangerous attacks 16
61 Possession 39
12 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 7

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 5
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
81 Ball Safe 73
11 Throwins 18
18 Successful Headers 8
13 Goal Attempts 5
1 Assists 0
2 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Dribble Attempts 9
8 Goal Kicks 9
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

126 Attacks 57
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
15 Key Passes 5
500 Successful Passes 297
50 Long Passes 51
576 Passes 385
87 Successful Passes Percentage 77
20 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

49 Duels Won 30
15 Tackles 12
3 Saves 3
14 Interceptions 10

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 6
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
7.3
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
7.1
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck (C) Defender
7.72
49
Luca Reggiani
Luca Reggiani Defender
8.29
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
7.44
8
Felix Nmecha
Felix Nmecha Midfielder
6.77
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt
Midfielder86'
7.03
20
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
7.12
17
Carney Chukwuemeka
Carney Chukwuemeka
Midfielder86'
24
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson Midfielder
6.7
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva
Attacker74'
6.49
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Midfielder
7.78
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier Attacker
6.53
2
Yan Couto
Yan Couto
Defender86'
27
Karim Adeyemi
Karim Adeyemi Attacker
7.34
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy
Attacker90'
6.39
Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

1
Finn Dahmen
Finn Dahmen Goalkeeper
6.76
16
Cédric Zesiger
Cédric Zesiger Defender
6.58
31
Keven Schlotterbeck
Keven Schlotterbeck (C) Defender
7.13
34
Arthur Chaves
Arthur Chaves Defender
6.09
4
Han-Noah Massengo
Han-Noah Massengo Midfielder
6.31
8
Elvis Rexhbecaj
Elvis Rexhbecaj
Midfielder60'
6.64
13
Dimitrios Giannoulis
Dimitrios Giannoulis Midfielder
6.68
38
Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch
Attacker68'
6.4
17
Kristijan Jakic
Kristijan Jakic Midfielder
6.27
27
Marius Wolf
Marius Wolf
Midfielder80'
6.68
19
Robin Fellhauer
Robin Fellhauer Midfielder
6.46
20
Alexis Claude-Maurice
Alexis Claude-Maurice Attacker
6.22
30
Anton Kade
Anton Kade
Midfielder60'
6.94
21
Rodrigo Ribeiro
Rodrigo Ribeiro Attacker
6.5
36
Mert Kömür
Mert Kömür
Midfielder80'
6.34
32
Fabian Rieder
Fabian Rieder Attacker
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Serhou Guirassy → Karim Adeyemi
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Yan Couto → Maximilian Beier
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Julian Brandt → Felix Nmecha
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Carney Chukwuemeka → Marcel Sabitzer
8th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Marius Wolf → Kristijan Jakic
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Mert Kömür → Rodrigo Ribeiro
5th Substitution
Event
Fábio Silva → Daniel Svensson
4th Substitution
74'
68'
Event
Michael Gregoritsch → Dimitrios Giannoulis
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Elvis Rexhbecaj → Han-Noah Massengo
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Anton Kade → Alexis Claude-Maurice
1st Substitution
Event
Luca Reggiani
Header / 2nd Goal
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Karim Adeyemi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund, following a save by Finn Dahmen.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Serhou Guirassy replaces Karim Adeyemi.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Anton Kade of FC Augsburg attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Robin Fellhauer, who delivered a cross.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Serhou Guirassy from Borussia Dortmund takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
90
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Anton Kade from FC Augsburg takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund makes a fantastic save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist for this play comes from Keven Schlotterbeck.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund had a header from close range but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Julian Ryerson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Borussia Dortmund securing a 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Augsburg after Yan Couto allowed the ball to go out.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jobe Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Luca Reggiani.
88
Attempt Attempt
Fábio Silva from Borussia Dortmund had a shot from the center of the box with his right foot, but it was blocked. The assist came from Karim Adeyemi.
87
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Anton Kade from FC Augsburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Julian Brandt comes on to replace Felix Nmecha.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Carney Chukwuemeka replaces Marcel Sabitzer.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Yan Couto replaces Maximilian Beier.
86
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Augsburg after Luca Reggiani allowed the ball to go out.
84
Corner Corner
Opportunity missed! Maximilian Beier of Borussia Dortmund attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Nico Schlotterbeck following a corner kick.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Finn Dahmen allowed the ball to go out.
83
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Borussia Dortmund, following a save by Finn Dahmen.
82
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Karim Adeyemi from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box. However, Finn Dahmen, the goalkeeper for FC Augsburg, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Jobe Bellingham.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Robin Fellhauer from FC Augsburg attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went wide. The assist came from Marius Wolf.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Marius Wolf comes on to replace Kristijan Jakic.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Marius Wolf replaces Kristijan Jakic.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Fabian Rieder allowed the ball to go out.
76
Update Update
Arthur Chaves from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
76
Update Update
Karim Adeyemi from Borussia Dortmund has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Fábio Silva comes on to replace Daniel Svensson due to an injury.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Fábio Silva replaces Daniel Svensson due to an injury.
72
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Cédric Zesiger allowed the ball to go out of play.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Michael Gregoritsch comes on to replace Dimitrios Giannoulis.
67
Update Update
Robin Fellhauer from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick on the left flank.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Anton Kade is coming on to replace Alexis Claude-Maurice.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Elvis Rexhbeçaj comes on to replace Han-Noah Massengo.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Dortmund leads FC Augsburg 2-0. Luca Reggiani scores with a header from close range following a corner kick.
58
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Arthur Chaves allowed the ball to go out of play.
56
Update Update
The pause has concluded. They are set to resume play.
55
Update Update
Match interruption - Borussia Dortmund.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Rodrigo Ribeiro allowed the ball to go out.
51
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Keven Schlotterbeck allowed the ball to go out.
49
Update Update
Marcel Sabitzer of Borussia Dortmund has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Fouled by Han-Noah Massengo of FC Augsburg.
48
Update Update
Waldemar Anton of Borussia Dortmund has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Fabian Rieder committed a foul against FC Augsburg.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Borussia Dortmund leading FC Augsburg 1-0.
45
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Rodrigo Ribeiro is caught in an offside position.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after a deflection off Han-Noah Massengo.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Waldemar Anton of Borussia Dortmund attempted a header from a challenging angle on the left but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Daniel Svensson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Borussia Dortmund leading FC Augsburg 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Borussia Dortmund leading FC Augsburg 1-0.
44
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert.
41
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Fabian Rieder from FC Augsburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Gregor Kobel, the goalkeeper for Borussia Dortmund, makes a save right in the center of the goal.
40
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Fabian Rieder from FC Augsburg was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
40
Update Update
Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Han-Noah Massengo from FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Alexis Claude-Maurice of FC Augsburg took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Robin Fellhauer.
35
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Karim Adeyemi of Borussia Dortmund attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The chance was set up by Marcel Sabitzer, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Finn Dahmen allowed the ball to go out.
35
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Jobe Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved by Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg, who manages to stop the ball in the upper center of the goal. The assist comes from Maximilian Beier.
34
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Julian Ryerson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
33
Update Update
Karim Adeyemi of Borussia Dortmund strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from the middle of the penalty area.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after a play that resulted in a deflection off Arthur Chaves.
32
Update Update
Han-Noah Massengo from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Daniel Svensson from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Alexis Claude-Maurice from FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Finn Dahmen allowed the ball to go out.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Keven Schlotterbeck allowed the ball to go out.
29
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Beier of Borussia Dortmund strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area, assisted by Julian Ryerson.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Karim Adeyemi from Borussia Dortmund takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist comes from Waldemar Anton, who provided the ball with a header.
24
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Rodrigo Ribeiro has been caught in an offside position.
23
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Rodrigo Ribeiro from FC Augsburg attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the right after a quick counterattack.
22
Update Update
Arthur Chaves of FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Karim Adeyemi from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Kristijan Jakic from FC Augsburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Alexis Claude-Maurice has committed a foul against FC Augsburg.
19
Update Update
Jobe Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
17
Update Update
Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Maximilian Beier from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Dortmund takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against FC Augsburg. Karim Adeyemi scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
8
Update Update
Kristijan Jakic from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Jobe Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund earned a free kick in an offensive position.
5
Update Update
Offside call against FC Augsburg. Rodrigo Ribeiro is caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Borussia Dortmund exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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