Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Signal Iduna Park Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund BVB
3 Winner 2
Eintracht Frankfurt SGE
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Samuele Inácio - 72'
Nico Schlotterbeck - 45+1'
Serhou Guirassy - 42'
Goal
|
Goal
Jonathan Burkardt - 87'
Can Uzun - 2'

CONTEXT

Borussia Dortmund claimed a 3-2 home victory against Eintracht Frankfurt in a competitive Bundesliga match. Dortmund established a 2-1 lead by halftime, leveraging 56% possession to control proceedings. Frankfurt responded in the second half, scoring once to close the deficit, but Dortmund's defense held firm to secure the win. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Dortmund's result aligned with expectations despite a significant 45.3% structural deviation in their favor. No red cards occurred, maintaining match flow without disruptions. Efficiency metrics for both sides stayed in line with projections. Possession dominance aided Dortmund's chance creation, though Frankfurt's resilience kept the score tight until the end. This outcome underscores Dortmund's tactical edge in high-stakes fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a significant 45.3% structural deviation favoring Borussia Dortmund.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards caused no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Ittrich

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Thielert

1st Assistant

Germany

T. Gorniak

2nd Assistant

Germany

T. Bauer

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 17.77
Yellow cards / match 3.26
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
VS
Eintracht Frankfurt A. Riera Ortega
A. Riera Ortega
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hamburger SV Rank: 75 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
FC Köln Rank: 76 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 L
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 12 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Borussia Dortmund
54.67%
Draw
22.39%
Away Eintracht Frankfurt
22.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Borussia Dortmund
-40.05%
Draw
+17.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt
+22.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.86
79.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
Power Score
89.86
79.9
League Position
2
8
Global Rank
14
60

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Eintracht Frankfurt — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Eintracht Frankfurt

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Borussia Dortmund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Eintracht Frankfurt
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.25
23.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.75
26.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Borussia Dortmund +0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt -0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Borussia Dortmund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Eintracht Frankfurt
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Borussia Dortmund
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Borussia Dortmund 0.38
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Borussia Dortmund 0.07
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.09
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SGE had peak pressure around 93'.
  • SGE started the game with stronger pressure.
BVB Pressure SGE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SGE reached the top pressure at 93' (89.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Borussia Dortmund BVB Home
39 matches
Eintracht Frankfurt SGE Away
Match Record
19
Wins
8
12
Draws
12
8
Losses
19
Goals
82
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
82
+34
Goal Difference
-34

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:01:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
L. Reggiani
Substitution
Italy
49 L. Reggiani
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck
Germany
4 N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
M. Sabitzer
Substitution
Austria
20 M. Sabitzer
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
7 J. Bellingham
M. Beier
Germany
14 M. Beier
J. Brandt
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Brandt
S. Inacio
Italy
40 S. Inacio
S. Guirassy
Substitution
Guinea
9 S. Guirassy
Pitch
M. Zetterer
Germany
23 M. Zetterer
N. Brown
Germany
21 N. Brown
A. Theate
Belgium
3 A. Theate
R. Koch
Germany
4 R. Koch
A. Amenda
Switzerland
5 A. Amenda
M. Dahoud
Substitution
Germany
18 M. Dahoud
E. Skhiri
Tunisia
15 E. Skhiri
F. Chaïbi
Substitution
Algeria
8 F. Chaïbi
C. Uzun
Substitution
Türkiye
42 C. Uzun
R. Doan
Substitution
Japan
20 R. Doan
A. Muinga
Substitution
France
25 A. Muinga

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Signal Iduna Park
Capacity :
81365
Attendance :
81365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sascha Thielert
Thomas Gorniak
Tom Bauer
Patrick Ittrich

Statistics

Possession
BVB
54%
SGE
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 4
34 Dangerous attacks 29
56 Possession 44
6 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

3 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 7
8 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
21 Throwins 19
14 Successful Headers 7
12 Dribble Attempts 21
1 Successful Dribbles 10
0 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 6
81 Ball Safe 76
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

110 Attacks 80
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

541 Passes 432
87 Successful Passes Percentage 86
469 Successful Passes 371
43 Long Passes 55
11 Key Passes 8
23 Successful Long Passes 23
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

3 Interceptions 15
21 Tackles 21
2 Saves 5
45 Duels Won 51

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 4
8 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

14 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Patrick Ittrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender
49
Luca Reggiani
Luca Reggiani Defender
25
Niklas Süle
Niklas Süle
Defender88'
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
8
Felix Nmecha
Felix Nmecha
Midfielder74'
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier Midfielder
20
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
6
Salih Özcan
Salih Özcan
Midfielder78'
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Midfielder
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy Attacker
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva
Attacker78'
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt Attacker
27
Karim Adeyemi
Karim Adeyemi
Attacker74'
40
Samuele Inácio
Samuele Inácio Attacker
Referee : Patrick Ittrich

Starting XI ▼

23
Michael Zetterer
Michael Zetterer Goalkeeper
3
Arthur Theate
Arthur Theate Defender
4
Robin Koch
Robin Koch Defender
5
Aurèle Amenda
Aurèle Amenda Defender
21
Nathaniel Brown
Nathaniel Brown Defender
8
Farès Chaïbi
Farès Chaïbi Midfielder
19
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
Attacker57'
15
Ellyes Skhiri
Ellyes Skhiri Midfielder
18
Mahmoud Dahoud
Mahmoud Dahoud Midfielder
27
Mario Götze
Mario Götze
Midfielder57'
20
Ritsu Doan
Ritsu Doan Midfielder
9
Jonathan Burkardt
Jonathan Burkardt
Attacker82'
42
Can Uzun
Can Uzun Midfielder
29
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
Attacker77'
25
Arnaud Kalimuendo
Arnaud Kalimuendo Attacker
7
Ansgar Knauff
Ansgar Knauff
Attacker77'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gregor Kobel
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Samuele Inácio
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Niklas Süle → Luca Reggiani
10th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Jonathan Burkardt
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
Event
Jonathan Burkardt → Ritsu Doan
9th Substitution
Event
Fábio Silva → Serhou Guirassy
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Salih Özcan → Marcel Sabitzer
7th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Ansgar Knauff → Arnaud Kalimuendo
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab → Can Uzun
5th Substitution
Event
Karim Adeyemi → Julian Brandt
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Felix Nmecha → Jobe Bellingham
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Samuele Inácio
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
72'
57'
Event
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya → Farès Chaïbi
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Mario Götze → Mahmoud Dahoud
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Nico Schlotterbeck
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
45+1'
Event
Serhou Guirassy
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
42'
Event
Luca Reggiani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
2'
Event
Can Uzun
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuele Inacio receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gregor Kobel receives a yellow card.
88
Attempt Attempt
Jean Matteo Bahoya takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Niklas Sule comes on for Luca Reggiani.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jonathan Michael Burkardt scores, making it 3-2.
87
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Michael Burkardt scores with a left-footed shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ansgar Knauff takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Jonathan Michael Burkardt is on, and Ritsu Doan is off.
78
Update Update
Salih Ozcan comes on for Marcel Sabitzer.
78
Update Update
Fabio Silva comes on for Sehrou Guirassy.
77
Update Update
Ansgar Knauff comes on for Arnaud Kalimuendo.
77
Update Update
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab is on, and Can Yilmaz Uzun is off.
74
Update Update
Karim Adeyemi comes on for Julian Brandt.
74
Update Update
Felix Nmecha replaces Jobe Bellingham.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Samuele Inacio scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Maximilian Beier.
72
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Inacio takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
71
Attempt Attempt
Julian Ryerson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Julian Ryerson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Can Yilmaz Uzun takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Jean Matteo Bahoya takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Julian Ryerson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Update Update
Mario Gotze comes on for Mahmoud Dahoud.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Jean Matteo Bahoya comes on for Fares Chaibi.
56
Update Update
Julian Brandt's header attempt misses the target.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nico Schlotterbeck scores with a left-footed shot.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sehrou Guirassy equalizes the score to 1-1.
42
Attempt Attempt
Sehrou Guirassy takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
39
Attempt Attempt
Ritsu Doan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Can Yilmaz Uzun takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Beier takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Julian Brandt takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Jobe Bellingham takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Reggiani receives a yellow card.
19
Attempt Attempt
Fares Chaibi's right-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Luca Reggiani attempts a header but misses the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Inacio takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Sabitzer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Can Yilmaz Uzun takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Patrick Ittrich.

CONCLUSION

Borussia Dortmund's 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt validated their status as the stronger side, with 56% possession converting into a narrow victory. The significant structural deviation highlights performance exceeding baseline models, while market alignment confirms predictive consistency. Absent xG data limits chance quality insights, but efficiency in line suggests reliable execution. Halftime 2-1 lead proved decisive amid Frankfurt's second-half push. No red cards or adjustments preserved structural integrity. This result strengthens Dortmund's league standing, emphasizing home resilience and possession efficacy for future challenges.

Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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