Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Signal Iduna Park Sat, 11 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund BVB
0 Winner 1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Robert Andrich - 42'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The result saw Bayer 04 Leverkusen take the points. Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Aytekin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Osmers

4th Official

C. Leicher

1st Assistant

M. Thomsen

2nd Assistant

Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
VS
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
2.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: W
Hamburger SV Rank: W
FC Augsburg Rank: W
FC Köln Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: D
FC Bayern München Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: D
Hamburger SV Rank: W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: D
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Borussia Dortmund
47.74%
Draw
24.33%
Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen
27.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Borussia Dortmund
+47.42%
Draw
+16.95%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
-64.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.24
29.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Power Score
34.24
29.82
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Borussia Dortmund Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Borussia Dortmund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.02
27.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.45
33.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Borussia Dortmund +0.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen -0.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Borussia Dortmund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Borussia Dortmund Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Borussia Dortmund Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Borussia Dortmund
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Borussia Dortmund Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Borussia Dortmund 0.20
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Borussia Dortmund Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Borussia Dortmund 0.03
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.00
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BVB had peak pressure around 23'.
  • BVB started the game with stronger pressure.
BVB Pressure B04 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BVB reached the top pressure at 23' (74.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Borussia Dortmund BVB Home
41 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Away
Match Record
20
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
20
Goals
80
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
80
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:05:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck
Germany
4 N. Schlotterbeck
R. Bensebaini
Algeria
5 R. Bensebaini
J. Ryerson
Substitution
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
M. Sabitzer
Substitution
Austria
20 M. Sabitzer
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
7 J. Bellingham
J. Brandt
Germany
10 J. Brandt
D. Svensson
Substitution
Sweden
24 D. Svensson
F. Soares Silva
Substitution
Portugal
21 F. Soares Silva
S. Guirassy
Guinea
9 S. Guirassy
Pitch
M. Flekken
Netherlands
1 M. Flekken
E. Tapsoba
Burkina Faso
12 E. Tapsoba
L. Badé
France
5 L. Badé
R. Andrich
Germany
8 R. Andrich
A. Grimaldo García
Spain
20 A. Grimaldo García
A. García Serrano
Spain
24 A. García Serrano
E. Palacios
Argentina
25 E. Palacios
M. Amare Culbreath
Substitution
Germany
42 M. Amare Culbreath
N. Tella
Substitution
Nigeria
23 N. Tella
I. Maza
Substitution
Algeria
30 I. Maza
C. Kofane
Substitution
35 C. Kofane

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Signal Iduna Park
Capacity :
81365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Harm Osmers
Christian Leicher
Deniz Aytekin
Martin Thomsen

Statistics

Possession
BVB
52%
B04
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 11
70 Dangerous attacks 38
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 5
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 10
6 Goal Kicks 11
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
15 Throwins 17
10 Successful Headers 5
4 Successful Dribbles 4
70 Ball Safe 92
10 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

115 Attacks 70
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

11 Key Passes 9
91 Successful Passes Percentage 89
27 Long Passes 42
558 Passes 518
505 Successful Passes 462
14 Successful Long Passes 23
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

20 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 5
3 Saves 0

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 11
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
5 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender
5
Ramy Bensebaini
Ramy Bensebaini Defender
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
6
Salih Özcan
Salih Özcan
Midfielder76'
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt Midfielder
20
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
17
Carney Chukwuemeka
Carney Chukwuemeka
Midfielder64'
24
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson Midfielder
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier
Attacker59'
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Midfielder
42
Almugera Kabar
Almugera Kabar
Defender75'
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy Attacker
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva Attacker
40
Samuele Inácio
Samuele Inácio
Attacker64'
Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
5
Loïc Badé
Loïc Badé Defender
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Defender
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Defender
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Midfielder
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Midfielder
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Midfielder
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Midfielder
21
Lucas Vázquez
Lucas Vázquez
Defender74'
23
Nathan Tella
Nathan Tella Attacker
19
Ernest Poku
Ernest Poku
Attacker74'
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Attacker
10
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman
Midfielder90+2'
35
Christian Kofane
Christian Kofane Attacker
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick
Attacker54'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Malik Tillman → Ibrahim Maza
9th Substitution
Event
Salih Özcan → Jobe Bellingham
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Almugera Kabar → Julian Ryerson
7th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Lucas Vázquez → Montrell Culbreath
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Ernest Poku → Nathan Tella
5th Substitution
Event
Carney Chukwuemeka → Marcel Sabitzer
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Samuele Inácio → Fábio Silva
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Maximilian Beier
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Maximilian Beier → Daniel Svensson
2nd Substitution
59'
54'
Event
Patrik Schick → Christian Kofane
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Serhou Guirassy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
42'
Event
Robert Andrich
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Ramy Bensebaini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Malik Tillman replaces Ibrahim Maza.
90
Attempt Attempt
Julian Brandt from Borussia Dortmund had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box but missing the target.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Borussia Dortmund 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after a concession by Robert Andrich.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ernest Poku's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Aleix García provided the assist.
87
Corner Corner
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempts a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund makes a save in the top right corner. The assist comes from Alejandro Grimaldo, who provided the cross.
86
Corner Corner
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win a corner after Almugera Kabar concedes.
83
Attempt Attempt
Almugera Kabar of Borussia Dortmund missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Julian Brandt's cross.
82
Attempt Attempt
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, assisted by Carney Chukwuemeka.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Ramy Bensebaini from Borussia Dortmund took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Salih Özcan replaces Jobe Bellingham.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Salih Özcan replaces Jobe Bellingham.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Ernest Poku replaces Nathan Tella.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Lucas Vázquez replaces Montrell Culbreath.
73
Update Update
Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
Samuele Inácio from Borussia Dortmund won a free kick on the right wing.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Edmond Tapsoba of Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
70
Update Update
Nathan Tella of Bayer 04 Leverkusen is flagged for offside.
68
Corner Corner
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win a corner after Ramy Bensebaini concedes.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Serhou Guirassy from Borussia Dortmund shot with his right foot from outside the box but missed to the left. The assist was by Samuele Inácio.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Samuele Inácio replaces Fábio Silva.
64
Attempt Attempt
Robert Andrich's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Carney Chukwuemeka replaces Marcel Sabitzer.
63
Update Update
Maximilian Beier of Borussia Dortmund commits a foul.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maximilian Beier - Borussia Dortmund - receive yellow card for a foul.
63
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen won a free kick in the attacking area.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after being conceded by Gregor Kobel.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after being conceded by Gregor Kobel.
59
Update Update
Fábio Silva of Borussia Dortmund is flagged for offside.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Maximilian Beier replaces Daniel Svensson.
57
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy from Borussia Dortmund misses a chance as his header from the center of the box goes over the bar. The assist came from Julian Ryerson's cross.
56
Update Update
Marcel Sabitzer fouled a Borussia Dortmund player.
56
Update Update
Aleix García of Bayer 04 Leverkusen won a free kick in the attacking area.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Patrik Schick replaces Christian Kofane.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Julian Brandt of Borussia Dortmund took a right-footed shot from outside the box following a free kick.
52
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in the attacking area.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Robert Andrich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
47
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Robert Andrich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen heads the ball from the center of the box but it goes over the bar. The assist came from Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a cross after a corner.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after being conceded by Ramy Bensebaini.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Borussia Dortmund trailing Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-0.
45
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy fouled Borussia Dortmund.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Borussia Dortmund 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.
43
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Fábio Silva - Borussia Dortmund - shot with right foot from the centre of the box is blocked. Assist - Serhou Guirassy.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes the lead 1-0 against Borussia Dortmund with a right-footed shot from outside the box by Robert Andrich.
39
Update Update
Foul by Loïc Badé against Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Alejandro Grimaldo concedes.
39
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Julian Brandt from Borussia Dortmund took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
34
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo of Bayer 04 Leverkusen misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the left. Exequiel Palacios provided the assist.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Jobe Bellingham concedes.
32
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Christian Kofane of Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund. The assist comes from Exequiel Palacios.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
30
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Aleix García from Bayer 04 Leverkusen shot with his right foot from outside the box but missed to the left. Exequiel Palacios provided the assist.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after a concession by Edmond Tapsoba.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Loïc Badé concedes.
21
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Marcel Sabitzer from Borussia Dortmund took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
20
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Tella's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ibrahim Maza provided the assist.
20
Update Update
Nathan Tella of Bayer 04 Leverkusen commits a handball.
17
Attempt Attempt
Julian Brandt from Borussia Dortmund misses a chance as his right-footed shot from the center of the box goes high, assisted by Waldemar Anton with a header.
17
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Svensson's shot for Borussia Dortmund from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Marcel Sabitzer's cross.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Christian Kofane of Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
9
Update Update
Offside called against Borussia Dortmund. Julian Brandt is offside.
9
Update Update
Jobe Bellingham of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Edmond Tapsoba from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Marcel Sabitzer of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ramy Bensebaini of Borussia Dortmund receives a yellow card for a foul.
5
Update Update
Ramy Bensebaini of Borussia Dortmund commits a foul.
5
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen won a free kick in an attacking position.
3
Corner Corner
Nico Schlotterbeck of Borussia Dortmund misses a header from the right side of the six-yard box, sending the ball high. The assist came from Daniel Svensson, who delivered a cross after a corner.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after Exequiel Palacios concedes.
2
Attempt Attempt
Ramy Bensebaini's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Bayer 04 Leverkusen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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