Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara Sun, 3 May - 10:30 AM
Serie A
Bologna BOL
0 – 0
Cagliari CAG
Full Time Sun, 3 May 10:30 AM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Bologna welcomed Cagliari to the Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A action, resulting in a hard-fought 0-0 draw. The home side dominated proceedings with 65% possession, creating numerous chances but failing to convert against a stubborn Cagliari defense. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting a cautious opening period where both teams probed without breakthrough. In the second half, Bologna intensified pressure, yet Cagliari's organized backline and goalkeeper held firm, frustrating the stronger team's efforts. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a full complement of players throughout. This stalemate represents a moderate structural deviation for Bologna, who entered as favorites but couldn't capitalize on their superiority. Cagliari's resilience earned a valuable point on the road, underscoring defensive solidity over offensive output.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bologna showed moderate 8.2% structural deviation as the stronger team in a 0-0 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment with outcome undetermined.
  • Market alignment: Match result aligned fully with pre-game market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to game structure or flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. Crezzini

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Fontemurato

1st Assistant

S. Biffi

2nd Assistant

S. Galipò

4th Official

Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
VS
Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Roma Rank: 83 L
Juventus Rank: 85 L
Lecce Rank: 68 W
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Lazio Rank: 81 L
Sassuolo Rank: 76 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 85 W
Inter Rank: 90 L
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Sassuolo Rank: 76 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Pisa Rank: 63 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 7 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bologna
4.93%
Draw
91.84%
Away Cagliari
3.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Bologna
-0.03%
Draw
+0.42%
Cagliari
-0.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.75
70.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bologna
Cagliari
Power Score
77.75
70.81
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
83
189

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bologna Cagliari

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bologna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cagliari

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bologna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cagliari
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.77
25.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.57
23.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bologna -0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
Cagliari +0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bologna
Cagliari
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bologna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cagliari
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bologna Cagliari
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bologna Cagliari
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bologna
Cagliari
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bologna
vs
Cagliari
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bologna Cagliari
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bologna 0.27
Cagliari 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bologna Cagliari
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bologna 0.00
Cagliari 0.00
Bologna
Cagliari
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOL had peak pressure around 32'.
  • CAG started the game with stronger pressure.
BOL Pressure CAG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOL reached the top pressure at 32' (67.41).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bologna BOL Home
31 matches
Cagliari CAG Away
Match Record
14
Wins
10
7
Draws
7
10
Losses
14
Goals
41
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
41
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:01:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-5-1
Pitch
M. Pessina
Italy
25 M. Pessina
L. De Silvestri
Substitution
Italy
29 L. De Silvestri
E. Fauske Helland
Norway
5 E. Fauske Helland
J. Lucumí Bonilla
Colombia
26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
J. Miranda González
Spain
33 J. Miranda González
R. Freuler
Switzerland
8 R. Freuler
N. Moro
Croatia
6 N. Moro
F. Bernardeschi
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Bernardeschi
S. Sohm
Substitution
Switzerland
23 S. Sohm
B. Domínguez
Substitution
Argentina
30 B. Domínguez
J. Odgaard
Substitution
Denmark
21 J. Odgaard
Pitch
E. Caprile
Italy
1 E. Caprile
A. Obert
Slovakia
33 A. Obert
A. Dossena
Italy
22 A. Dossena
Y. Mina González
Colombia
26 Y. Mina González
J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
Portugal
32 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
M. Folorunsho
Italy
90 M. Folorunsho
A. Deiola
Substitution
Italy
14 A. Deiola
G. Gaetano
Italy
10 G. Gaetano
M. Adopo
Substitution
France
8 M. Adopo
M. Palestra
Italy
2 M. Palestra
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Capacity :
36532
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Valerio Crezzini
Domenico Fontemurato
Simone Biffi
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
BOL
62%
CAG
38%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
49 Dangerous attacks 19
65 Possession 35
7 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Successful Headers 12
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
17 Throwins 15
21 Dribble Attempts 15
13 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 3
3 Goal Kicks 10
0 Injuries 1
63 Ball Safe 68
10 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

126 Attacks 48
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

492 Passes 273
413 Successful Passes 198
21 Successful Long Passes 19
84 Successful Passes Percentage 73
49 Long Passes 55
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
12 Key Passes 7

Defensive

19 Tackles 19
6 Interceptions 8
66 Duels Won 50
2 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 4
15 Total Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

25
Massimo Pessina
Massimo Pessina Goalkeeper
6.88
5
Eivind Helland
Eivind Helland Defender
6.65
26
Jhon Lucumí
Jhon Lucumí Defender
6.83
29
Lorenzo De Silvestri
Lorenzo De Silvestri Defender
6.59
20
Nadir Zortea
Nadir Zortea
Defender85'
6.65
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Defender
7.09
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro Midfielder
7.02
8
Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler Midfielder
6.8
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi Midfielder
6.86
19
Lewis Ferguson
Lewis Ferguson
Midfielder78'
6.73
23
Simon Sohm
Simon Sohm Midfielder
6.69
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe
Attacker46'
6.8
30
Benja Domínguez
Benja Domínguez Midfielder
6.5
7
Riccardo Orsolini
Riccardo Orsolini
Attacker63'
6.97
21
Jens Odgaard
Jens Odgaard Attacker
6.74
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro
Attacker63'
6.88
Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

1
Elia Caprile
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper
6.91
22
Alberto Dossena
Alberto Dossena Defender
6.81
26
Yerry Mina
Yerry Mina Defender
6.89
32
Zé Pedro
Zé Pedro Defender
6.6
33
Adam Obert
Adam Obert Defender
6.83
2
Marco Palestra
Marco Palestra Midfielder
6.95
8
Michel Adopo
Michel Adopo Midfielder
6.68
28
Gabriele Zappa
Gabriele Zappa
Defender89'
6.59
10
Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder
6.82
14
Alessandro Deiola
Alessandro Deiola Midfielder
6.73
25
Ibrahim Sulemana
Ibrahim Sulemana
Midfielder42'
6.63
90
Michael Folorunsho
Michael Folorunsho Midfielder
6.57
94
Sebastiano Esposito
Sebastiano Esposito Attacker
7.18
31
Paul Mendy
Paul Mendy
Attacker73'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Santiago Castro
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
89'
Event
Gabriele Zappa → Michel Adopo
8th Substitution
Event
Nadir Zortea → Lorenzo De Silvestri  
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Lewis Ferguson → Federico Bernardeschi
6th Substitution
78'
73'
Event
Paul Mendy  → Sebastiano Esposito
5th Substitution
Event
Eivind Helland
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Santiago Castro → Jens Odgaard
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Riccardo Orsolini → Benja Domínguez
4th Substitution
63'
52'
Event
Michel Adopo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jonathan Rowe → Simon Sohm
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Ibrahim Sulemana → Alessandro Deiola
1st Substitution
5'
Event
Var

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Thomas Castro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Thomas Castro receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Moro takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Update Update
Gabriele Zappa is on, and Ndary Adopo is off.
87
Attempt Attempt
Yerry Fernando Mina Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Nadir Zortea comes on for Lorenzo De Silvestri.
81
Attempt Attempt
Michael Folorunsho takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Figueiredo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Lewis Ferguson replaces Federico Bernardeschi.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Rowe's header is saved.
73
Update Update
Paul Mendy is on, and Sebastiano Esposito is off.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eivind Fauske Helland receives a yellow card.
67
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Thomas Castro's left-footed shot is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jhon Janer Lucumi attempts a header but misses the shot.
63
Update Update
Riccardo Orsolini comes on for Benjamin Dominguez.
63
Update Update
Santiago Thomas Castro comes on for Jens Odgaard.
59
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Moro takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ndary Adopo.
46
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe replaces Simon Sohm.
45
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi attempted a header but missed the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Esposito takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Sulemana takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Update Update
Alberto Dossena's header is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Simon Sohm takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Michael Folorunsho takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana comes on for Alessandro Deiola.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jens Odgaard's left-footed shot is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Dominguez takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw leaves Bologna rueing missed opportunities despite clear dominance in possession and territory. Cagliari's disciplined approach neutralized the home side's attacks, securing a point through sheer defensive grit. This outcome highlights Bologna's need for sharper finishing to match their control, while Cagliari can take confidence from frustrating a superior opponent. With no disruptions from red cards or major events, the result stands as a fair reflection of Cagliari's game plan execution. Both teams move on, but Bologna's moderate deviation underscores efficiency gaps in converting pressure into goals.

Bologna vs Cagliari preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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