Bologna vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Europa League
Aston Villa AVLSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
In the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie, Aston Villa defeated Bologna 3-1 in a finished match that began with the aggregate score at 0-0. Aston Villa led 1-0 at halftime and added two second-half goals while the home side scored once. The away team was identified as the stronger side and recorded the victory despite trailing in possession 42 percent to 58 percent. No red cards occurred in the contest.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation benefited Aston Villa in the first leg.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations for the match.
- xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to missing data.
- Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to unavailable data.
- Event impact: Aston Villa built a strong aggregate lead with their first-leg away win.
- Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to distort the match result.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
S. Schärer
Other match officials
S. De Almeida
1st Assistant
J. Erni
2nd Assistant
A. Kanagasingam
4th Official


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Bologna
Aston VillaMovement
Changes since opening
Bologna
Aston VillaTeam Power Ranking
i
78.61
91.39
Bologna
Aston VillaForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Bologna
Aston Villa

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Bologna ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Bologna ⚠ Proxy
Bologna Aston Villa
Bologna Aston Villa
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Bologna
Bologna Aston Villa


Bologna Aston Villa


Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-10T00:01:43+00:00
STARTING XI
Bologna
Aston Villa




















































General Information
Next Match

Bologna
vs

Lecce
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 4:00 PM
Venue: Home

Aston Villa
vs

Nottingham Forest
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Venue: Away
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
BolognaManager ▼

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Substitutes ▼




Bench ▼






Aston VillaManager ▼

Starting XI ▼














Substitutes ▼



Bench ▼








Events
CONCLUSION
Bologna vs Aston Villa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Match Commentary