Blackburn Rovers vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Ewood Park Sat, 21 Mar - 12:30 PM
Championship
Blackburn Rovers BBR
0 – 0
Middlesbrough MID
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 12:30 PM
Round 39 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Blackburn Rovers and Middlesbrough has finished, ending in a 0-0 draw after both sides failed to score in either half. Heading into the fixture, Middlesbrough were the clear favorites with a 50.7% implied probability of victory, compared to Blackburn's 22.9% and a 26.4% chance of a draw. Ultimately, the outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as the favored away team failed to secure the anticipated win. Middlesbrough dictated the flow of the game, controlling an overwhelming 72% of possession and restricting the hosts to just 28%. The away side also created the better opportunities, amassing 1.51 expected goals (xG) to Blackburn's 0.49. However, the final result was consistent neither with this clear xG advantage nor with the pre-match market. Despite the visitors' statistical dominance in chance creation and ball control, the overall efficiency shift remained in line with standard expectations. The match also proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card to unexpectedly alter the balance of play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Middlesbrough showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Blackburn Rovers M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Watford Rank: 69 D
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 68 D
Wrexham Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 72 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
Stoke City Rank: 67 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 W
Southampton Rank: 75 W
Derby County Rank: 71 L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 14 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Blackburn Rovers
22.85%
Draw
26.42%
Away Middlesbrough
50.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.84
74.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Blackburn Rovers
Middlesbrough
Power Score
66.84
74.06
League Position
19
2
Global Rank
282
127

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Blackburn Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Blackburn Rovers Middlesbrough

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Blackburn Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Middlesbrough

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Blackburn Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Middlesbrough
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.86
21.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.46
22.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Blackburn Rovers +0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Middlesbrough -0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Blackburn Rovers
Middlesbrough
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Blackburn Rovers
vs
Middlesbrough
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Blackburn Rovers Middlesbrough
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Blackburn Rovers Middlesbrough
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Blackburn Rovers
Middlesbrough
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Blackburn Rovers BBR Home
41 matches
Middlesbrough MID Away
Match Record
18
Wins
9
14
Draws
14
9
Losses
18
Goals
39
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
39
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
B. Tóth
Hungary
22 B. Tóth
T. Atcheson
England
38 T. Atcheson
S. McLoughlin
Republic of Ireland
15 (C) S. McLoughlin
E. Cashin
Republic of Ireland
20 E. Cashin
R. Alebiousu
Nigeria
2 R. Alebiousu
T. Gardner-Hickman
England
5 T. Gardner-Hickman
A. Forshaw
England
28 A. Forshaw
Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
Substitution
Portugal
4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
R. Morishita
Japan
25 R. Morishita
M. Baradji
Substitution
France
24 M. Baradji
M. Jörgensen
Substitution
Denmark
29 M. Jörgensen
Pitch
S. Brynn
England
31 S. Brynn
A. Malanda
France
29 A. Malanda
D. Fry
England
6 (C) D. Fry
L. Ayling
Substitution
England
12 L. Ayling
M. Targett
Substitution
England
3 M. Targett
A. Morris
United States
18 A. Morris
R. McGree
Australia
8 R. McGree
C. Brittain
England
2 C. Brittain
T. Conway
Scotland
9 T. Conway
A. Browne
Republic of Ireland
16 A. Browne
D. Strelec
Substitution
Slovakia
13 D. Strelec

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Ewood Park
Capacity :
31367
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oliver Langford
Hugh Gilroy
Robert Hyde
David Webb

Statistics

Possession
BBR
34%
MID
66%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 3
28 Dangerous attacks 69
28 Possession 72
3 Corners 11
8 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 3
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
13 Throwins 20
79 Ball Safe 84
14 Dribble Attempts 24
7 Successful Dribbles 8
3 Goal Attempts 9
15 Successful Headers 16
3 Substitutions 3
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 142
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 87
66 Long Passes 36
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
20 Successful Long Passes 16
278 Passes 700
202 Successful Passes 606
2 Key Passes 8

Defensive

19 Tackles 9
8 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 1

Build-up

0 Accurate Crosses 3
10 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
7 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Oliver Langford

Starting XI ▼

22
Balázs Tóth
Balázs Tóth Goalkeeper
7.22
15
Sean McLoughlin
Sean McLoughlin (C) Defender
7.2
20
Eiran Cashin
Eiran Cashin Defender
6.96
38
Tom Atcheson
Tom Atcheson Defender
7.1
2
Ryan Alebiosu
Ryan Alebiosu Midfielder
6.83
4
Yuri Ribeiro
Yuri Ribeiro Midfielder
6.69
3
Harry Pickering
Harry Pickering
Defender64'
6.57
5
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Taylor Gardner-Hickman Midfielder
6.94
28
Adam Forshaw
Adam Forshaw Midfielder
7.09
24
Moussa Baradji
Moussa Baradji Attacker
6.12
10
Todd Cantwell
Todd Cantwell
Midfielder64'
6.66
25
Ryoya Morishita
Ryoya Morishita Attacker
6.78
29
Mathias Jørgensen
Mathias Jørgensen Attacker
6.34
23
Yuki Ohashi
Yuki Ohashi
Attacker75'
6.47
Referee : Oliver Langford

Starting XI ▼

31
Sol Brynn
Sol Brynn Goalkeeper
6.9
6
Dael Fry
Dael Fry (C) Defender
7.69
12
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling Defender
7.18
23
Leo Castledine
Leo Castledine
Midfielder68'
6.44
29
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda Defender
7.49
2
Callum Brittain
Callum Brittain Midfielder
6.64
3
Matt Targett
Matt Targett Midfielder
6.87
24
Alex Bangura
Alex Bangura
Defender81'
6.46
8
Riley McGree
Riley McGree Midfielder
6.84
18
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris Midfielder
7.18
9
Tommy Conway
Tommy Conway Attacker
6.81
13
David Strelec
David Strelec Attacker
6.34
45
Jeremy Sarmiento
Jeremy Sarmiento
Midfielder81'
6.45
16
Alan Browne
Alan Browne Attacker
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Adilson Malanda
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Jeremy Sarmiento → David Strelec
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Alex Bangura → Matt Targett
5th Substitution
Event
Yuki Ohashi → Mathias Jørgensen
4th Substitution
75'
68'
Event
Leo Castledine → Luke Ayling
3rd Substitution
Event
Todd Cantwell → Moussa Baradji
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Harry Pickering → Yuri Ribeiro
2nd Substitution
64'
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Luke Ayling
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Sol Brynn from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Dael Fry's defensive error.
90
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score remaining Blackburn Rovers 0, Middlesbrough 0.
90
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough earned a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Todd Cantwell - Blackburn Rovers.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Ryan Alebiosu allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Adilson Malanda of Middlesbrough attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but couldn't find the target. The chance was set up by Callum Brittain, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
89
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adilson Malanda of Middlesbrough has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Update Update
Adilson Malanda from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
88
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers attempted a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side.
86
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alan Browne from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Adilson Malanda allowed the ball to go out.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Jeremy Sarmiento comes on to replace David Strelec.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Alex Bangura comes on to replace Matt Targett.
81
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tom Atcheson of Blackburn Rovers takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Adam Forshaw allowed the ball to go out.
77
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
76
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Tom Atcheson from Blackburn Rovers.
75
Update Update
Todd Cantwell committed a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
75
Update Update
Dael Fry from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in an offensive position.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Yuki Ohashi comes on to replace Mathias Jørgensen.
75
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Dael Fry of Middlesbrough attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was provided by Callum Brittain.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Sean McLoughlin's defensive play.
73
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Riley McGree from Middlesbrough attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Tommy Conway.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Leo Castledine replaces Luke Ayling.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Harry Pickering comes on to replace Yuri Ribeiro.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Todd Cantwell is coming on to replace Moussa Baradji.
63
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Moussa Baradji of Blackburn Rovers took a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, aiming for the left side of the goal. However, he narrowly missed, sending the ball to the left after a quick counterattack.
62
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Moussa Baradji has been flagged for being offside.
61
Update Update
Matt Targett committed a foul against a Middlesbrough player.
61
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Tommy Conway.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after a defensive play by Taylor Gardner-Hickman.
55
Update Update
Middlesbrough has been flagged for offside. Tommy Conway is caught beyond the last defender.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Taylor Gardner-Hickman of Blackburn Rovers takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Sean McLoughlin.
53
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Moussa Baradji has been caught offside.
52
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman of Blackburn Rovers was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
52
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Blackburn Rovers 0, Middlesbrough 0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Blackburn Rovers 0, Middlesbrough 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough has been awarded a corner after Balázs Tóth allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as David Strelec from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Tommy Conway.
45
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left. The assist came from Matt Targett following a corner kick.
44
Update Update
Offside call against Middlesbrough. Luke Ayling has been flagged for being in an offside position.
43
Update Update
Eiran Cashin committed a foul on a Blackburn Rovers player.
43
Update Update
Alan Browne from Middlesbrough was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
41
Update Update
Match interruption - Middlesbrough.
41
Update Update
Alan Browne committed a foul against Middlesbrough.
41
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
41
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Yuri Ribeiro from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Alan Browne committed a foul against Middlesbrough.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Sean McLoughlin allowed the ball to go out.
34
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort is underway. Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Sol Brynn of Middlesbrough makes a save in the bottom right corner.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Adilson Malanda allowed the ball to go out.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alan Browne from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Riley McGree.
32
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita from Blackburn Rovers earned a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Adilson Malanda from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Ryan Alebiosu commits a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
31
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Sean McLoughlin allowed the ball to go out.
26
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alan Browne from Middlesbrough attempted a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
26
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Aidan Morris.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luke Ayling of Middlesbrough has been shown a yellow card.
22
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Atcheson from Blackburn Rovers.
15
Update Update
Offside decision against Middlesbrough. Callum Brittain has been caught in an offside position.
13
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough took a right-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Riley McGree.
12
Update Update
Moussa Baradji from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in their defensive half.
12
Update Update
Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Atcheson of Blackburn Rovers.
10
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Balázs Tóth of Blackburn Rovers makes a save, denying the attempt in the bottom right corner.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after a play by Tom Atcheson resulted in a defensive error.
4
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough has been awarded a corner kick after Sean McLoughlin allowed the ball to go out of play.
2
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough has been awarded a corner after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
2
Update Update
Offside call against Middlesbrough. Adilson Malanda has been flagged for being offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Middlesbrough exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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