Blackburn Rovers vs Leicester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Ewood Park Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Blackburn Rovers BBR
0 Winner 1
Leicester City LEI
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
|
Goal
Stephy Mavididi - 78'

CONTEXT

Blackburn Rovers welcomed Leicester City to Ewood Park in a Championship encounter that concluded 0-1 for the visitors. Billed as the stronger team, Blackburn shared 50% possession evenly but failed to break the deadlock, with halftime locked at 0-0. Leicester City, defying pre-match perceptions, secured a minimal deviation victory of 5.8%, aligning closely with structural expectations. No red cards marred the contest, ensuring a fluid match without distortions. Efficiency metrics stayed in line, while the absence of xG data leaves shot quality analysis pending. Leicester's second-half composure proved decisive in this balanced affair, as no major adjustments altered the tactical flow. The result highlights Leicester's road resilience against a favored host, boosting their momentum in a competitive league.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 5.8% structural deviation favored Leicester City over stronger Blackburn Rovers.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from missing match data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments significantly impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Doughty

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Webb

4th Official

S. Massey

2nd Assistant

R. Woodward

1st Assistant

Blackburn Rovers M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
Leicester City G. Rowett
G. Rowett
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield United Rank: 71 W
Coventry City Rank: 76 D
Southampton Rank: 77 L
Stoke City Rank: 67 D
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 68 D
Birmingham City Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 75 D
Hull City Rank: 70 D
Portsmouth Rank: 67 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 54 D
Preston North End Rank: 66 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Blackburn Rovers
0.19%
Draw
5.65%
Away Leicester City
94.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Blackburn Rovers
-0.05%
Draw
-1.67%
Leicester City
+1.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.38
61.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Blackburn Rovers
Leicester City
Power Score
68.38
61.32
League Position
20
23
Global Rank
244
281

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Blackburn Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Leicester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Blackburn Rovers Leicester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Blackburn Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leicester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Blackburn Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leicester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.10
48.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.00
28.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Blackburn Rovers -2.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Leicester City +2.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Blackburn Rovers
Leicester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Blackburn Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leicester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Blackburn Rovers Leicester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Blackburn Rovers Leicester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Blackburn Rovers
Leicester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Blackburn Rovers
vs
Leicester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Blackburn Rovers Leicester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Blackburn Rovers 0.29
Leicester City 0.55
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Blackburn Rovers Leicester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Blackburn Rovers 0.03
Leicester City 0.00
Blackburn Rovers
Leicester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEI had peak pressure around 29'.
  • BBR started the game with stronger pressure.
BBR Pressure LEI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEI reached the top pressure at 29' (91.16).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Blackburn Rovers BBR Home
12 matches
Leicester City LEI Away
Match Record
5
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
13
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:01:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Tóth
Hungary
22 B. Tóth
T. Atcheson
England
38 T. Atcheson
S. McLoughlin
Republic of Ireland
15 S. McLoughlin
E. Cashin
Republic of Ireland
20 E. Cashin
R. Alebiousu
Substitution
Nigeria
2 R. Alebiousu
K. Montgomery
Substitution
Scotland
31 K. Montgomery
A. Forshaw
Substitution
England
28 A. Forshaw
M. Baradji
Substitution
France
24 M. Baradji
Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
Substitution
Portugal
4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
R. Morishita
Japan
25 R. Morishita
Y. Ohashi
Japan
23 Y. Ohashi
Pitch
J. Stolarczyk
Poland
1 J. Stolarczyk
L. Thomas
England
33 L. Thomas
J. Vestergaard
Denmark
23 J. Vestergaard
H. Souttar
Substitution
Australia
15 H. Souttar
R. Barbosa Pereira
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Barbosa Pereira
H. Winks
England
8 H. Winks
H. Choudhury
England
17 H. Choudhury
S. Mavididi
England
10 S. Mavididi
L. Page
Substitution
England
25 L. Page
J. Monga
Substitution
28 J. Monga
P. Daka
Substitution
Zambia
20 P. Daka

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Ewood Park
Capacity :
31367
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Webb
Leigh Doughty
Sian Massey
Richard Woodward

Statistics

Possession
BBR
49%
LEI
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 4
7 Shots 6
41 Dangerous attacks 40
50 Possession 50
9 Corners 11
6 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
49 Ball Safe 49
9 Goal Attempts 13
23 Throwins 22
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
13 Successful Headers 14
7 Goal Kicks 10
15 Dribble Attempts 5
4 Successful Dribbles 4

Attacking

100 Attacks 83
3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 84
25 Successful Long Passes 12
54 Long Passes 33
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
359 Successful Passes 372
451 Passes 442
8 Key Passes 10

Defensive

13 Interceptions 13
33 Duels Won 39
11 Tackles 14
8 Saves 4

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 20
2 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Leigh Doughty

Starting XI ▼

22
Balázs Tóth
Balázs Tóth Goalkeeper
6.69
15
Sean McLoughlin
Sean McLoughlin Defender
6.95
20
Eiran Cashin
Eiran Cashin Defender
6.67
38
Tom Atcheson
Tom Atcheson Defender
6.75
2
Ryan Alebiosu
Ryan Alebiosu Midfielder
6.83
40
Matthew Litherland
Matthew Litherland
Defender71'
6.76
4
Yuri Ribeiro
Yuri Ribeiro Midfielder
6.68
10
Todd Cantwell
Todd Cantwell
Midfielder46'
7.1
24
Moussa Baradji
Moussa Baradji Midfielder
6.77
14
Dion De Neve
Dion De Neve
Defender77'
6.59
28
Adam Forshaw
Adam Forshaw Midfielder
6.78
29
Mathias Jørgensen
Mathias Jørgensen
Attacker71'
6.69
31
Kristi Montgomery
Kristi Montgomery Midfielder
6.56
5
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
Midfielder46'
6.72
23
Yuki Ohashi
Yuki Ohashi Attacker
6.8
25
Ryoya Morishita
Ryoya Morishita Attacker
6.93
Referee : Leigh Doughty

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakub Stolarczyk
Jakub Stolarczyk Goalkeeper
6.76
15
Harry Souttar
Harry Souttar Defender
7.87
62
Kevon Gray
Kevon Gray
Defender88'
21
Ricardo Pereira
Ricardo Pereira Defender
6.85
56
Olabade Aluko
Olabade Aluko
Defender73'
6.13
23
Jannik Vestergaard
Jannik Vestergaard Defender
7.02
33
Luke Thomas
Luke Thomas Defender
6.83
8
Harry Winks
Harry Winks Midfielder
6.93
10
Stephy Mavididi
Stephy Mavididi Midfielder
6.57
17
Hamza Choudhury
Hamza Choudhury Midfielder
6.75
25
Louis Page
Louis Page Midfielder
6.54
9
Jordan Ayew
Jordan Ayew
Attacker60'
6.81
28
Jeremy Monga
Jeremy Monga Midfielder
6.42
39
Silko Thomas
Silko Thomas
Attacker59'
6.58
20
Patson Daka
Patson Daka Attacker
6.71
6
Jordan James
Jordan James
Midfielder73'
7.05

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Kevon Gray → Harry Souttar
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Stephy Mavididi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Dion De Neve → Moussa Baradji
9th Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Jordan James → Patson Daka
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Olabade Aluko → Ricardo Pereira
7th Substitution
Event
Mathias Jørgensen → Adam Forshaw
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Matthew Litherland → Ryan Alebiosu
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Sean McLoughlin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
60'
Event
Jordan Ayew → Louis Page
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Silko Thomas → Jeremy Monga
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Ricardo Pereira
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Todd Cantwell → Yuri Ribeiro
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Taylor Gardner-Hickman → Kristi Montgomery
2nd Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jordan James takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Vestergaard takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
Jannik Vestergaard takes a header, but it misses the target.
88
Update Update
Kevon Gray replaces Harry Souttar.
78
Attempt Attempt
Stephy Mavididi takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Stephy Mavididi scores with a right-footed shot.
77
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Ayew takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Update Update
Dion De Neve comes on for Moussa Baradji.
73
Update Update
Jordan James replaces Patson Daka.
73
Update Update
Olabade Aluko is on, and Ricardo Domingos Barbosa Pereira is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Gardner-Hickman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Mathias Jorgensen comes on for Adam Forshaw.
71
Update Update
Matty Litherland comes on for Ryan Alebiosu.
68
Attempt Attempt
Silko Thomas takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Alebiosu takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Todd Cantwell takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Alebiosu takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean McLoughlin receives a yellow card.
60
Update Update
Jordan Ayew is on, and Louis Page is off.
59
Update Update
Silko Thomas is on, and Jeremy Monga is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Stephy Mavididi attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Gardner-Hickman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ricardo Domingos Barbosa Pereira.
52
Update Update
Yuki Ohashi's header attempt misses the target.
50
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Gardner-Hickman takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Yuki Ohashi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman is on, and Kristi Montgomery is off.
46
Update Update
Todd Cantwell replaces Yuri Oliveira Ribeiro.
46
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Baradji takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Patson Daka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Patson Daka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Adam Forshaw takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Adam Forshaw takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Adam Forshaw takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Baradji takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Update Update
Jannik Vestergaard takes a header, but it misses the target.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Vestergaard takes a shot with his head but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Vestergaard takes a header shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Hamza Choudhury takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Louis Page takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Hamza Choudhury takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Monga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Harry Winks takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Stephy Mavididi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Harry Souttar takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Hamza Choudhury takes a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leicester City exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Blackburn Rovers vs Leicester City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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