Birmingham City vs Wrexham Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Andrew's Stadium Sun, 12 Apr - 11:00 AM
Championship
Birmingham City BRC
2 Winner 0
Wrexham WXH
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 42 Regular Season
Christoph Klarer - 71'
Carlos Vicente - 48'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match is now finished, with Birmingham City recording a 2-0 victory over Wrexham. The sides went in level at 0-0 after a goalless first half, but the hosts produced two second-half goals to claim all three points. Pre-match forecasts gave Birmingham City roughly a 45 percent chance of success, with Wrexham slightly behind at 28 percent and the draw at 27.5 percent. The outcome marked a significant deviation in favor of Birmingham City, who prevailed despite Wrexham being viewed as the stronger side entering the fixture. Possession favored the visitors 55 percent to 45 percent, yet they were unable to convert that territorial edge into chances. No xG data is available to measure expected goals or alignment with the final scoreline. No red cards were issued and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout. Overall the result proved consistent with the pre-match projection once play unfolded, underlining how the home side capitalized on their opportunities while Wrexham could not. (168 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Birmingham City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Webb

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Woodward

1st Assistant

A. Nelson

2nd Assistant

T. Nield

4th Official

Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
VS
Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.69
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield United Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Watford Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: W
Hull City Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Birmingham City
44.91%
Draw
27.53%
Away Wrexham
27.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Birmingham City
-52.98%
Draw
+25.61%
Wrexham
+27.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.04
25.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Birmingham City
Wrexham
Power Score
20.04
25.98
League Position
15
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Birmingham City Wrexham

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Birmingham City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wrexham
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.56
9.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.64
37.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Birmingham City +2.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Wrexham -2.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Birmingham City
Wrexham
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Birmingham City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wrexham
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Birmingham City Wrexham
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Birmingham City Wrexham
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Birmingham City
Wrexham
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Birmingham City
vs
Wrexham
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Birmingham City Wrexham
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Birmingham City 0.39
Wrexham 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Birmingham City Wrexham
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Birmingham City 0.00
Wrexham 0.05
Birmingham City
Wrexham
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRC had peak pressure around 51'.
  • BRC started the game with stronger pressure.
BRC Pressure WXH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRC reached the top pressure at 51' (95.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Birmingham City BRC Home
2 matches
Wrexham WXH Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
5
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:02:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Beadle
England
25 J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
Nigeria
26 B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
Germany
5 P. Neumann
C. Klarer
Austria
4 C. Klarer
K. Wagner
Germany
31 K. Wagner
T. Iwata
Substitution
Japan
24 T. Iwata
J. Solis Romero
Substitution
Colombia
14 J. Solis Romero
C. Vicente Robles
Spain
23 C. Vicente Robles
J. Stansfield
Substitution
England
28 J. Stansfield
I. Osman
Substitution
Ghana
17 I. Osman
A. Priske
Denmark
29 A. Priske
Pitch
A. Okonkwo
England
1 A. Okonkwo
C. Doyle
England
2 C. Doyle
D. Scarr
England
24 D. Scarr
M. Cleworth
Wales
4 M. Cleworth
G. Thomason
England
14 G. Thomason
G. Dobson
England
15 G. Dobson
M. James
Substitution
England
37 M. James
I. Kabore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
12 I. Kabore
L. O'Brien
England
27 L. O'Brien
O. Rathbone
Substitution
England
20 O. Rathbone
K. Moore
Substitution
Wales
19 K. Moore

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
St. Andrew's Stadium
Capacity :
29409
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Richard Woodward
Alistair Nelson
Tom Nield
David Webb

Statistics

Possession
BRC
48%
WXH
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
15 Shots 4
38 Dangerous attacks 26
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 4
5 Successful Dribbles 6
32 Successful Headers 34
4 Goal Kicks 11
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
23 Throwins 25
17 Dribble Attempts 14
12 Goal Attempts 2
2 Injuries 3
103 Ball Safe 119

Attacking

107 Attacks 115
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

85 Long Passes 83
29 Successful Long Passes 32
229 Successful Passes 309
348 Passes 434
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
66 Successful Passes Percentage 71
13 Key Passes 3

Defensive

14 Tackles 15
0 Saves 6
8 Interceptions 6

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 7
9 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
5 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : David Webb

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer Defender
5
Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann Defender
26
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Bright Osayi-Samuel Defender
31
Kai Wagner
Kai Wagner Defender
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís Midfielder
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik
Midfielder46'
17
Ibrahim Osman
Ibrahim Osman Midfielder
10
Demarai Gray
Demarai Gray
Attacker78'
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente Midfielder
24
Tomoki Iwata
Tomoki Iwata Midfielder
7
Tommy Doyle
Tommy Doyle
Midfielder85'
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Midfielder
2
Ethan Laird
Ethan Laird
Defender88'
29
August Priske
August Priske Attacker
Referee : David Webb

Starting XI ▼

1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Defender
24
Dan Scarr
Dan Scarr Defender
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré Midfielder
7
D. Keillor-Dunn
D. Keillor-Dunn
Midfielder86'
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
15
George Dobson
George Dobson Midfielder
37
Matty James
Matty James Midfielder
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead
Attacker63'
19
Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore Attacker
28
Sam Smith
Sam Smith
Attacker74'
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone Attacker
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass
Midfielder63'
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ethan Laird → Jay Stansfield
8th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
D. Keillor-Dunn → Issa Kaboré
7th Substitution
Event
Tommy Doyle → Tomoki Iwata
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Demarai Gray → Ibrahim Osman
5th Substitution
78'
74'
Event
Sam Smith → Kieffer Moore
4th Substitution
Event
Christoph Klarer
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
63'
Event
Nathan Broadhead → Matty James
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Josh Windass → Ollie Rathbone
3rd Substitution
Event
Carlos Vicente
Header / 1st Goal
48'
Event
Seung-ho Paik → Jhon Solís
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Max Cleworth
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jhon Solís
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Tommy Doyle from Birmingham City won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by August Priske for Birmingham City.
90
Update Update
Callum Doyle from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Birmingham City. Demarai Gray takes a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes just left of the target. The assist was provided by Tommy Doyle.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Birmingham City leading Wrexham 2-0.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis O'Brien of Wrexham.
90
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved by Wrexham's goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
89
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to James Beadle from Birmingham City.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Ethan Laird replaces Jay Stansfield.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Davis Keillor-Dunn replaces Issa Kaboré.
85
Update Update
Offside called against Birmingham City. August Priske is offside.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Tommy Doyle replaces Tomoki Iwata.
84
Update Update
Jay Stansfield from Birmingham City won a free kick in an attacking position.
84
Update Update
Foul by Lewis O'Brien - Wrexham.
83
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Paik Seung-Ho concedes.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Smith of Wrexham.
81
Update Update
James Beadle from Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
80
Corner Corner
Wrexham have been awarded a corner after Christoph Klarer conceded it.
79
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham won a free kick on the right wing.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Demarai Gray replaces Ibrahim Osman due to injury.
78
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ibrahim Osman of Birmingham City.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Birmingham City. Jay Stansfield's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is close, but it misses. The assist came from Kai Wagner's cross.
74
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Callum Doyle concedes.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Sam Smith replaces Kieffer Moore.
74
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Callum Doyle concedes.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Jay Stansfield for Birmingham City.
73
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead of Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Birmingham City leads 2-0 against Wrexham. Christoph Klarer scores for Birmingham City with a left-footed shot from close range after a corner.
70
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Max Cleworth concedes.
68
Update Update
Carlos Vicente of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by George Thomason of Wrexham.
65
Update Update
Offside called against Birmingham City. August Priske is offside.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Nathan Broadhead replaces Matty James.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Josh Windass replaces Oliver Rathbone.
61
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Birmingham City. Jay Stansfield shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high. The assist was provided by Kai Wagner.
60
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Lewis O'Brien is in an offside position.
57
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Phil Neumann of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
54
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Rathbone's shot for Wrexham from outside the box is blocked. George Dobson provided the assist.
50
Update Update
Carlos Vicente of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Matty James for Wrexham.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Birmingham City leads 1-0 against Wrexham. Carlos Vicente scores with a header from the center of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Kai Wagner's cross.
45
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Fouled by Oliver Rathbone - Wrexham
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Birmingham City and Wrexham.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Birmingham City win a corner after Matty James concedes.
45
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman is called offside for Birmingham City.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Birmingham City and Wrexham tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but Arthur Okonkwo, the Wrexham goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Paik Seung-Ho replaces Jhon Solís.
44
Update Update
Max Cleworth is caught offside for Wrexham.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Christoph Klarer for Birmingham City.
42
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham won a free kick in an attacking position.
41
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Kai Wagner concedes.
41
Update Update
August Priske of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
41
Update Update
Callum Doyle fouled a Wrexham player.
40
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Rathbone's shot for Wrexham is blocked. He attempted a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the right, assisted by Issa Kaboré.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by August Priske of Birmingham City.
39
Update Update
Callum Doyle from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kieffer Moore from Wrexham.
34
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Tomoki Iwata.
34
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kieffer Moore from Wrexham.
31
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Oliver Rathbone concedes.
29
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Callum Doyle from Wrexham took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
27
Update Update
Max Cleworth from Wrexham committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City won a free kick on the left wing.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Max Cleworth from Wrexham receives a yellow card for a foul.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jhon Solís of Birmingham City receives a yellow card for a foul.
25
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Jhon Solís of Birmingham City.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Oliver Rathbone - Wrexham - shot with left foot from outside the box.
20
Update Update
Foul by August Priske for Birmingham City.
20
Update Update
Callum Doyle - Wrexham - won a free kick in defence.
19
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it's saved on the left side.
18
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high. The assist came from Kai Wagner, who provided a header.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by George Dobson for Wrexham.
15
Update Update
August Priske of Birmingham City won a free kick on the left wing.
14
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Max Cleworth concedes.
14
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. August Priske - Birmingham City - shot with the head from the centre of the box is saved by goalkeeper in the centre of the goal by Arthur Okonkwo - Wrexham Assist - Kai Wagner with a cross.
11
Update Update
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
11
Update Update
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Issa Kaboré from Wrexham.
9
Update Update
Birmingham City is called offside. August Priske is in an offside position.
9
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kai Wagner of Birmingham City.
7
Update Update
Christoph Klarer of Birmingham City is caught offside.
6
Update Update
Kai Wagner from Birmingham City won a free kick on the left wing.
6
Update Update
Issa Kaboré fouled a player from Wrexham.
5
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Jhon Solís of Birmingham City heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Arthur Okonkwo of Wrexham. The assist came from Kai Wagner, who delivered the cross.
4
Corner Corner
Birmingham City win a corner after Dan Scarr concedes.
4
Attempt Attempt
Tomoki Iwata's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jhon Solís provided the assist.
3
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City heads the ball from the left side of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo in the center of the goal. The assist came from Carlos Vicente, who delivered a cross.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomoki Iwata for Birmingham City.
1
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Birmingham City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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