Birmingham City vs Bristol City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Andrew's Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Birmingham City BRC
2 Winner 1
Bristol City BSC
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season
Jhon Solís - 29'
Phil Neumann - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Tomi Horvat - 82' (P)

CONTEXT

Birmingham City defeated Bristol City 2-1 in a competitive Championship encounter at St. Andrew's. The hosts surged ahead with two first-half goals, leading 2-0 at halftime and setting the tone early. Despite Bristol City controlling 56% of possession compared to Birmingham's 44%, the visitors struggled to convert chances effectively. Birmingham's defense stood resolute in the second half, conceding just once as Bristol mounted pressure. No red cards were issued, allowing uninterrupted play throughout. Identified as the stronger side pre-match, Birmingham City justified their status with a gritty performance, maintaining control despite lower ball possession. The minimal 4.4% deviation underscored a result closely aligned with structural expectations, highlighting efficient execution under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal 4.4% structural deviation favoring Birmingham City.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered match dynamics significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion in proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Jones

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Greenhalgh

1st Assistant

R. West

2nd Assistant

L. Doughty

4th Official

Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
VS
Bristol City R. Hodgson
R. Hodgson
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: W
Hull City Rank: D
Wrexham Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Birmingham City
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Bristol City
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.36
22.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Birmingham City
Bristol City
Power Score
24.36
22.9
League Position
10
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Birmingham City Bristol City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bristol City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Birmingham City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.93
19.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.46
31.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Birmingham City +1.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Bristol City -1.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Birmingham City
Bristol City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Birmingham City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Birmingham City Bristol City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Birmingham City Bristol City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Birmingham City
Bristol City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Birmingham City
vs
Bristol City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Birmingham City Bristol City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Birmingham City 0.18
Bristol City 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Birmingham City Bristol City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Birmingham City 0.03
Bristol City 0.03
Birmingham City
Bristol City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRC had peak pressure around 60'.
  • BRC started the game with stronger pressure.
BRC Pressure BSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRC reached the top pressure at 60' (72.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Birmingham City BRC Home
25 matches
Bristol City BSC Away
Match Record
16
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
16
Goals
38
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
38
+16
Goal Difference
-16

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:04:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Beadle
England
25 J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
Substitution
Nigeria
26 B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
Germany
5 P. Neumann
C. Klarer
Austria
4 C. Klarer
K. Wagner
Germany
31 K. Wagner
S. Paik
South Korea
8 S. Paik
J. Solis Romero
Substitution
Colombia
14 J. Solis Romero
C. Vicente Robles
Spain
23 C. Vicente Robles
J. Stansfield
Substitution
England
28 J. Stansfield
D. Gray
Substitution
Jamaica
10 D. Gray
A. Priske
Denmark
29 A. Priske
Pitch
R. Vítek
Czech Republic
23 R. Vítek
C. Pring
Substitution
England
3 C. Pring
V. Borges dos Santos Neto
Brazil
21 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
N. Eile
Sweden
38 N. Eile
R. McCrorie
Scotland
2 R. McCrorie
S. Morsy
Substitution
Egypt
40 S. Morsy
J. Knight
Republic of Ireland
12 J. Knight
S. Twine
England
10 S. Twine
T. Horvat
Slovenia
14 T. Horvat
S. Bell
Substitution
England
20 S. Bell
D. Burgzorg
Substitution
Netherlands
11 D. Burgzorg

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium :
St. Andrew's Stadium
Capacity :
29409
Attendance :
27210
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Robert Jones
Nick Greenhalgh
Richard West
Leigh Doughty

Statistics

Possession
BRC
47%
BSC
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 5
61 Dangerous attacks 38
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
22 Throwins 16
1 Assists 0
6 Goal Kicks 11
17 Successful Headers 24
10 Dribble Attempts 14
63 Ball Safe 74
2 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 5
6 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

108 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 77
263 Successful Passes 373
366 Passes 482
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
59 Long Passes 73
19 Successful Long Passes 24
7 Key Passes 3

Defensive

13 Tackles 11
44 Duels Won 48
8 Interceptions 4
1 Saves 4

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
6.69
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer Defender
7
5
Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann Defender
6.9
26
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Bright Osayi-Samuel Defender
6.51
2
Ethan Laird
Ethan Laird
Defender70'
6.82
31
Kai Wagner
Kai Wagner Defender
7.1
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik Midfielder
6.96
10
Demarai Gray
Demarai Gray Midfielder
6.81
7
Tommy Doyle
Tommy Doyle
Midfielder70'
6.84
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís Midfielder
6.66
24
Tomoki Iwata
Tomoki Iwata
Midfielder60'
6.93
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente Midfielder
6.77
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Midfielder
6.71
20
Alex Cochrane
Alex Cochrane
Defender85'
6.91
29
August Priske
August Priske Attacker
6.65
Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Defender
6.84
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring Defender
6.58
16
Rob Dickie
Rob Dickie
Defender46'
6.94
21
Neto Borges
Neto Borges Defender
6.45
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
6.79
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Midfielder
7.11
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight Midfielder
6.79
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat Midfielder
6.91
20
Sam Bell
Sam Bell Midfielder
6.78
18
Emil Riis
Emil Riis
Attacker63'
6.74
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
6.73
4
Adam Randell
Adam Randell
Midfielder63'
6.93
11
Delano Burgzorg
Delano Burgzorg Attacker
6.73
30
Sinclair Armstrong
Sinclair Armstrong
Attacker77'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christoph Klarer
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Alex Cochrane → Jay Stansfield
8th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Tomi Horvat
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Jay Stansfield
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
77'
Event
Sinclair Armstrong → Delano Burgzorg
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Delano Burgzorg
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Tommy Doyle → Demarai Gray
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Ethan Laird → Bright Osayi-Samuel
6th Substitution
70'
63'
Event
Adam Randell → Sam Morsy
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Emil Riis → Sam Bell
3rd Substitution
Event
Tomoki Iwata → Jhon Solís
2nd Substitution
60'
46'
Event
Rob Dickie → Cameron Pring
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jhon Solís
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
29'
Event
Jhon Solís
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
Phil Neumann
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Rob Dickie of Bristol City.
90
Update Update
Sinclair Armstrong is caught offside for Bristol City.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Birmingham City winning 2-1 against Bristol City.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Christoph Klarer of Birmingham City.
90
Update Update
Sinclair Armstrong from Bristol City wins a free kick on the right wing.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christoph Klarer from Birmingham City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Update Update
Ross McCrorie of Bristol City misses a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it just to the right. The attempt was assisted by Tomi Horvat, who provided a cross after a set piece.
90
Update Update
Ethan Laird wins a free kick for Birmingham City in the defensive half.
87
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Neto Borges concedes.
86
Update Update
Sinclair Armstrong is caught offside for Bristol City.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Alex Cochrane comes on for Jay Stansfield.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Tomi Horvat scores for Bristol City with a left-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match remains 2-1.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jay Stansfield of Birmingham City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
80
Update Update
Bristol City awarded a penalty as Tomi Horvat is fouled in the penalty area.
80
Update Update
Jay Stansfield of Birmingham City concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Sinclair Armstrong of Bristol City.
78
Update Update
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City wins a free kick on the right wing.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Sinclair Armstrong comes on for Delano Burgzorg.
75
Update Update
Foul by Delano Burgzorg of Bristol City.
75
Update Update
Tomoki Iwata of Birmingham City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Delano Burgzorg from Bristol City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
72
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Neto Borges concedes.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Tommy Doyle comes on for Demarai Gray.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Ethan Laird comes on for Bright Osayi-Samuel.
67
Update Update
James Beadle of Birmingham City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Update Update
James Beadle from Birmingham City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
66
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after Phil Neumann concedes.
66
Attempt Attempt
Scott Twine's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
65
Update Update
Ross McCrorie from Bristol City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Jay Stansfield for Birmingham City.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Adam Randell comes on for Sam Morsy.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Emil Riis comes on for Sam Bell.
63
Update Update
Foul by Paik Seung-Ho for Birmingham City.
63
Update Update
Jason Knight from Bristol City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Tomoki Iwata comes on for Jhon Solís.
56
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Paik Seung-Ho from Birmingham City.
54
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Radek Vítek concedes.
54
Attempt Attempt
Jay Stansfield's right-footed shot from over 35 yards is saved in the top center of the goal by Radek Vítek.
53
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg is caught offside for Bristol City.
52
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. August Priske of Birmingham City has a left-footed shot from the center of the box that goes close but misses to the left. The assist came from Kai Wagner's cross.
51
Attempt Attempt
August Priske from Birmingham City hits the left post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Jay Stansfield.
51
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Jay Stansfield's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Radek Vítek. The assist came from Christoph Klarer.
50
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Radek Vítek.
50
Corner Corner
Birmingham City win a corner after Radek Vítek concedes.
49
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Noah Eile concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Scott Twine of Bristol City.
45
Update Update
Bright Osayi-Samuel from Birmingham City wins a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Birmingham City leading 2-0 against Bristol City.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Rob Dickie comes on for Cameron Pring.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at Birmingham City 2, Bristol City 0.
43
Attempt Attempt
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City has a right-footed shot from the center of the box blocked. The attempt was assisted by Jay Stansfield.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by August Priske of Birmingham City.
43
Update Update
Ross McCrorie from Bristol City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
42
Attempt Attempt
Scott Twine from Bristol City misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it high and wide to the right.
39
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Neto Borges concedes.
39
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Neto Borges concedes.
38
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg of Bristol City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Christoph Klarer of Birmingham City.
36
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by August Priske of Birmingham City.
34
Attempt Attempt
Neto Borges of Bristol City has his left-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
34
Update Update
Foul by Scott Twine of Bristol City.
34
Update Update
Bright Osayi-Samuel of Birmingham City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Attempt Attempt
Tomi Horvat from Bristol City misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Ross McCrorie provided the assist with a cross.
31
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to August Priske of Birmingham City.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Birmingham City leads 2-0 against Bristol City as Jhon Solís scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Paik Seung-Ho for Birmingham City.
28
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg of Bristol City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
23
Attempt Attempt
Demarai Gray's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Christoph Klarer of Birmingham City.
22
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg from Bristol City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
19
Attempt Attempt
Demarai Gray from Birmingham City misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it close but to the left after a direct free kick.
18
Update Update
August Priske of Birmingham City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Noah Eile of Bristol City.
16
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after James Beadle concedes.
16
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after Kai Wagner concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after Phil Neumann concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after Christoph Klarer concedes.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City receives a yellow card for a foul.
14
Update Update
Tomi Horvat from Bristol City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Jhon Solís of Birmingham City.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Birmingham City leads 1-0 after Phil Neumann scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box following a set piece.
7
Update Update
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City wins a free kick on the right wing.
7
Update Update
Cameron Pring commits a foul for Bristol City.
5
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after James Beadle concedes.
5
Update Update
Birmingham City is called offside. August Priske is the player caught offside.
5
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Scott Twine from Bristol City has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by James Beadle from Birmingham City.
1
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City misses a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it to the left. The assist came from Jhon Solís.

CONCLUSION

Birmingham City's 2-1 triumph over Bristol City exemplified resilience and clinical finishing, particularly in the first half where they established a 2-0 lead. Holding off a possession-dominant Bristol side in the second period demonstrated defensive solidity and tactical discipline. With no red cards or disruptive events, the game reflected pure team quality, affirming Birmingham as the stronger outfit. This minimal-deviation result reinforces their form, setting a positive trajectory amid Championship challenges, while Bristol must address inefficiency in chance creation.

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