Beşiktaş vs Galatasaray Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Beşiktaş Park Sat, 7 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Beşiktaş BES
0 Winner 1
Galatasaray GAL
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 5:00 PM
|
Goal
Victor Osimhen - 39'
|
Red Card Leroy Sané 62'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Beşiktaş 0–1 Galatasaray. The result saw Galatasaray take the points. Galatasaray showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 60%–40%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Galatasaray showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Ergün

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Kayatepe

4th Official

A. Usta

1st Assistant

M. Savranlar

2nd Assistant

Beşiktaş A. Yalçın
A. Yalçın
VS
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
1.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.35
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: W
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: W
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Konyaspor Rank: W
Eyüpspor Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rizespor Rank: W
Kayserispor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: D
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
Antalyaspor Rank: W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 7 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Beşiktaş
37.7%
Draw
26.32%
Away Galatasaray
35.98%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.33
81.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Beşiktaş
Galatasaray
Power Score
61.33
81.33
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Beşiktaş — Opponent-weighted form score
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Beşiktaş Galatasaray

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Beşiktaş

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Beşiktaş ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.75
33.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.13
43.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Beşiktaş +1.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Galatasaray -1.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Beşiktaş
Galatasaray
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Beşiktaş ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Beşiktaş Galatasaray
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Beşiktaş Galatasaray
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Beşiktaş
Galatasaray
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Beşiktaş BES Home
11 matches
Galatasaray GAL Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
1
Draws
1
6
Losses
4
Goals
15
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
15
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:11:21+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium :
Beşiktaş Park
Capacity :
42590
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe
Ozan Ergün
Anıl Usta
Mustafa Savranlar

Statistics

Possession
BES
58%
GAL
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
24 Shots 12
45 Dangerous attacks 25
60 Possession 40
8 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 7
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Throwins 16
1 Injuries 1
8 Successful Headers 13
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
6 Goal Kicks 12
5 Dribble Attempts 15
3 Successful Dribbles 3
45 Ball Safe 40
1 Goal Attempts 3
0 Assists 1
2 Substitutions 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 79
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

430 Successful Passes 267
14 Successful Long Passes 27
17 Key Passes 7
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
510 Passes 345
42 Long Passes 68
84 Successful Passes Percentage 77

Defensive

20 Tackles 5
3 Saves 7
4 Interceptions 10

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 13
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Wilfried Singo
Foul / 10th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Kaan Ayhan → Lucas Torreira
7th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Yunus Akgün → Roland Sallai
6th Substitution
Event
Junior Olaitan
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
89'
84'
Event
Roland Sallai
Time wasting / 8th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Wilfried Singo → Mario Lemina
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Eren Elmalı → Barış Alper Yılmaz
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Uğurcan Çakır
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Mario Lemina
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Cengiz Ünder → Vaclav Cerny
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Mustafa Hekimoğlu → Kristjan Asllani
2nd Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Sacha Boey → Gabriel Sara
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Leroy Sané
Foul / 1st Redcard
61'
Event
Leroy Sané
Card adjusted
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Victor Osimhen
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Amir Murillo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
31'
Event
Orkun Kökçü
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
28'
Event
Leroy Sané
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
6'
Event
Victor Osimhen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Galatasaray exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Beşiktaş vs Galatasaray preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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