Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Benfica SLB
2 – 2
Sporting Braga SCB
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Vangelis Pavlidis - 90+5' (P)
Rafa Silva - 46'
Goal
|
Goal
Gorby - 88'
Pau Víctor - 48'

CONTEXT

Benfica and Sporting Braga played out a 2-2 draw in the Primeira Liga, with the scoreline level at 0-0 at halftime. Benfica, the stronger team, dominated possession with 52% compared to Braga's 48%, yet failed to convert their advantage into a victory. The match featured no red cards and no notable second-half adjustments, maintaining a balanced structure throughout. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation, as Benfica underperformed relative to pre-match expectations where they held a clear edge. Efficiency for both sides remained in line with typical patterns, despite the lack of xG data to quantify chance quality. Braga's defensive resilience and clinical finishing in both halves neutralized Benfica's pressure, resulting in a fair reflection of the contest's competitiveness. The draw underscores Braga's ability to compete against superior opposition on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 2-2 draw showed a significant 80.8% deviation from expectations favoring Benfica.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both Benfica and Sporting Braga.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The draw did not align with pre-match market expectations dominated by Benfica.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to unavailable data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie influenced the 2-2 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Alves Jesus

1st Assistant

Portugal

F. Oliveira Melo

4th Official

Portugal

L. Gomes Maia

2nd Assistant

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Benfica José Mourinho
José Mourinho
VS
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
2.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
Sporting CP Rank: 89 W
Nacional Rank: 64 W
Casa Pia Rank: 63 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estoril Rank: 67 D
Santa Clara Rank: 65 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Famalicão Rank: 72 D
Arouca Rank: 67 W
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 7 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Benfica
67.39%
Draw
19.23%
Away Sporting Braga
13.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Benfica
+62.43%
Draw
-71.33%
Sporting Braga
+8.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.39
81.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Benfica
Sporting Braga
Power Score
87.39
81.23
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
22
55

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Benfica — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Benfica Sporting Braga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Benfica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Benfica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.98
14.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.38
52.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Benfica — Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Braga — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Benfica
Sporting Braga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Benfica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Benfica Sporting Braga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Benfica Sporting Braga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Benfica
Sporting Braga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Benfica
vs
Sporting Braga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Benfica Sporting Braga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Benfica 0.34
Sporting Braga 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Benfica Sporting Braga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Benfica 0.05
Sporting Braga 0.03
Benfica
Sporting Braga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SLB had peak pressure around 67'.
  • SLB started the game with stronger pressure.
SLB Pressure SCB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SLB reached the top pressure at 67' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Benfica SLB Home
43 matches
Sporting Braga SCB Away
Match Record
25
Wins
11
7
Draws
7
11
Losses
25
Goals
78
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
78
+33
Goal Difference
-33

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Trubin
Ukraine
1 A. Trubin
A. Dedić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
17 A. Dedić
T. Araújo
Portugal
44 T. Araújo
A. Tavares Silva
Portugal
4 A. Tavares Silva
S. Dahl
Sweden
26 S. Dahl
F. Aursnes
Norway
8 F. Aursnes
L. Barreiro Martins
Substitution
Luxembourg
18 L. Barreiro Martins
G. Prestianni Gross
Argentina
25 G. Prestianni Gross
R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
Portugal
27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
A. Schjelderup
Norway
21 A. Schjelderup
F. Ivanović
Substitution
Croatia
9 F. Ivanović
Pitch
L. Horníček
Czech Republic
1 L. Horníček
L. Cruz Lelo
Substitution
Portugal
5 L. Cruz Lelo
V. Carvalho Vieira
Brazil
6 V. Carvalho Vieira
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
14 G. Lagerbielke
G. Martínez Aguilera
Substitution
Spain
77 G. Martínez Aguilera
D. Tıknaz
Türkiye
34 D. Tıknaz
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
Portugal
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
V. Gómez Perea
Spain
2 V. Gómez Perea
Pau Victor
Spain
18 Pau Victor
G. Baptiste
France
29 G. Baptiste
F. Navarro Aliaga
Substitution
Spain
39 F. Navarro Aliaga

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Capacity :
68100
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bruno Miguel Alves Jesus
Fábio Oliveira Melo
Luciano António Gomes Maia
Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Statistics

Possession
SLB
54%
SCB
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 2
71 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
8 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

66 Ball Safe 73
28 Throwins 21
5 Goal Kicks 12
24 Dribble Attempts 22
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
19 Successful Headers 8
15 Successful Dribbles 10
0 Assists 2
2 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 1
15 Goal Attempts 3
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

115 Attacks 93
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

385 Successful Passes 354
40 Long Passes 48
24 Successful Long Passes 17
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
82 Successful Passes Percentage 80
469 Passes 443
19 Key Passes 5

Defensive

8 Interceptions 10
17 Tackles 16
0 Saves 6
62 Duels Won 40

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 4
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

1
Anatoliy Trubin
Anatoliy Trubin Goalkeeper
4
António Silva
António Silva Defender
17
Amar Dedić
Amar Dedić Defender
26
Samuel Dahl
Samuel Dahl Defender
44
Tomás Araújo
Tomás Araújo Defender
8
Fredrik Aursnes
Fredrik Aursnes Midfielder
18
Leandro Barreiro
Leandro Barreiro Midfielder
11
Dodi Lukébakio
Dodi Lukébakio
Attacker76'
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup Midfielder
25
Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni Midfielder
27
Rafa Silva
Rafa Silva Midfielder
9
Franjo Ivanović
Franjo Ivanović Attacker
14
Vangelis Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis
Attacker61'
Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hornicek
Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper
5
Leonardo Lelo
Leonardo Lelo Defender
17
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo
Midfielder82'
6
Vítor Carvalho
Vítor Carvalho Defender
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
2
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez Midfielder
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Midfielder
34
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Demir Ege Tıknaz Midfielder
77
Gabri Martínez
Gabri Martínez Midfielder
20
Mario Dorgeles
Mario Dorgeles
Midfielder67'
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Attacker
29
Gorby
Gorby Attacker
39
Fran Navarro
Fran Navarro Attacker
10
Rodrigo Zalazar
Rodrigo Zalazar
Midfielder74'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Víctor Gómez
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Vangelis Pavlidis
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+5'
90+3'
Event
Vítor Carvalho
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Andreas Schjelderup
Penalty awarded
90+2'
88'
Event
Gorby
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Amar Dedić
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
82'
Event
Gabriel Moscardo → Leonardo Lelo
5th Substitution
Event
Dodi Lukébakio → Leandro Barreiro
4th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Rodrigo Zalazar → Fran Navarro
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Mario Dorgeles → Gabri Martínez
2nd Substitution
Event
Vangelis Pavlidis
Goal disallowed
65'
Event
Vangelis Pavlidis → Franjo Ivanović
1st Substitution
61'
57'
Event
Leonardo Lelo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Lukas Hornicek
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
48'
Event
Pau Víctor
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Rafa Silva
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
46'

Match Commentary

75
Update Update
Offside called against Sporting Braga. Rodrigo Zalazar is offside.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Rodrigo Zalazar replaces Fran Navarro.
73
Update Update
Foul by Tomás Araújo of Benfica.
73
Update Update
Pau Víctor won a free kick for Sporting Braga on the left wing.
73
Update Update
Pau Víctor from Sporting Braga won a free kick in defense.
71
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Prestianni from Benfica had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box but missing to the left. Leandro Barreiro provided the assist.
69
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after Fran Navarro concedes it.
69
Update Update
António Silva's header from close range is blocked after a cross from Fredrik Aursnes.
68
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup from Benfica won a free kick in an attacking position.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by João Moutinho for Sporting Braga.
68
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after Gustaf Lagerbielke concedes.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Mario Dorgeles replaces Gabri Martínez.
65
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal. The match remains 1-1 between Benfica and Sporting Braga.
64
Update Update
Goal overturned by VAR! Vangelis Pavlidis scores for Benfica, but the goal is disallowed after a VAR review.
63
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gianluca Prestianni from Benfica.
62
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Gianluca Prestianni provided the assist.
61
Update Update
Amar Dedic from Benfica won a free kick in defense.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis replaces Franjo Ivanovic.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Jean-Baptiste Gorby of Sporting Braga.
60
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Aursnes' shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Andreas Schjelderup.
59
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after Leonardo Lelo concedes.
59
Corner Corner
Tomás Araújo from Benfica missed a header from the center of the box. The chance was set up by Gianluca Prestianni's cross following a corner.
58
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Prestianni from Benfica had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but the ball went high. The assist came from Franjo Ivanovic.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leonardo Lelo of Sporting Braga receives a yellow card for a foul.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga receives a yellow card.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Leonardo Lelo of Sporting Braga.
56
Update Update
Rafa from Benfica won a free kick in the attacking area.
55
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Fredrik Aursnes.
55
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Fredrik Aursnes of Benfica takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, which is saved in the left corner by Lukás Hornícek of Sporting Braga. The assist comes from Franjo Ivanovic.
52
Update Update
Offside called against Benfica. Gianluca Prestianni is offside.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Pau Víctor scores for Sporting Braga with a header into the left corner, assisted by Víctor Gómez's cross.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Benfica leads 1-0 after Rafa scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between Benfica and Sporting Braga.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Benfica and Sporting Braga tied at 0-0.
45
Corner Corner
Leandro Barreiro from Benfica attempts an attack with a header from the center of the box, but Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga saves it in the top right corner.
42
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to João Moutinho of Sporting Braga.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomás Araújo of Benfica.
41
Update Update
Pau Víctor of Sporting Braga won a free kick in defense.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Víctor Gómez of Sporting Braga.
38
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup from Benfica won a free kick on the left wing.
35
Update Update
Franjo Ivanovic of Benfica won a free kick in an attacking position.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Vítor Carvalho of Sporting Braga.
34
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Rafa from Benfica takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Samuel Dahl.
32
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Prestianni's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
32
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after Vítor Carvalho concedes.
31
Attempt Attempt
Franjo Ivanovic's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rafa provided the assist.
30
Attempt Attempt
Gabri Martínez's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Pau Víctor.
25
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after Gustaf Lagerbielke concedes.
25
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Fredrik Aursnes provided the assist.
21
Update Update
Rafa won a free kick for Benfica in an attacking position.
20
Attempt Attempt
Franjo Ivanovic from Benfica had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. Gianluca Prestianni provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Gabri Martínez of Sporting Braga won a free kick in defense.
15
Corner Corner
Gabri Martínez from Sporting Braga had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing the top right corner. The assist came from Pau Víctor, who provided a header.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Vítor Carvalho of Sporting Braga.
13
Update Update
António Silva of Benfica earned a free kick in defense.
12
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Amar Dedic concedes.
8
Attempt Attempt
Jean-Baptiste Gorby's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. João Moutinho provided the assist.
5
Update Update
Foul by Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga.
5
Update Update
António Silva of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
3
Update Update
Offside called against Benfica. Franjo Ivanovic is offside.
3
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after João Moutinho concedes it.
3
Corner Corner
Andreas Schjelderup from Benfica had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Fredrik Aursnes after a corner.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Benfica and Sporting Braga highlights a matchup where pre-match favoritism towards the home side did not materialize, driven by Braga's effective counter-attacking and solid defending. Benfica's 52% possession failed to yield a win, exposing vulnerabilities despite their status as the stronger team. With no red cards or major events altering the flow, the result stems from balanced efficiencies and Braga's opportunistic scoring. This significant deviation from expectations serves as a reminder of football's unpredictability, particularly in closely contested derbies. Both teams earned a point through resilience, setting up intriguing narratives for future encounters in the league.

Benfica vs Sporting Braga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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