Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
BayArena Sat, 2 May - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
4 Winner 1
RB Leipzig RBL
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Patrik Schick - 89', 76', 25'
Nathan Tella - 45'
Goal
|
Goal
Christoph Baumgartner - 80'

CONTEXT

Bayer 04 Leverkusen secured a convincing 4-1 victory over RB Leipzig in a match that showcased their superiority from start to finish. The home side took control early, leading 2-0 at halftime with clinical finishing and solid defending. Leverkusen maintained 55% possession throughout, creating numerous chances while restricting Leipzig's threats. In the second half, they added two more goals to seal the win, with Leipzig managing a consolation strike late on. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the game to flow naturally. As the stronger team on paper, Leverkusen delivered a performance aligned with expectations, demonstrating efficiency in both attack and defense. This result strengthens their position in the standings, highlighting their structural dominance and minimal deviation from pre-match projections.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured 2.7%, classified as minimal for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without xG metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Welz

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Thomsen

1st Assistant

M. Borsch

2nd Assistant

Sven Jablonski

4th Official

Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
VS
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
1.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.82
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 91 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Heidenheim Rank: 73 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bayer 04 Leverkusen
97.3%
Draw
2.37%
Away RB Leipzig
0.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.12
86.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
Power Score
90.12
86.87
League Position
4
3
Global Rank
12
25

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bayer 04 Leverkusen RB Leipzig

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

RB Leipzig

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy RB Leipzig
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.27
37.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.11
46.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.80 Efficiency Index
vs
RB Leipzig -0.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy RB Leipzig
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bayer 04 Leverkusen RB Leipzig
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bayer 04 Leverkusen RB Leipzig
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs
RB Leipzig
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bayer 04 Leverkusen RB Leipzig
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.47
RB Leipzig 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bayer 04 Leverkusen RB Leipzig
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.02
RB Leipzig 0.08
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • B04 had peak pressure around 77'.
  • B04 started the game with stronger pressure.
B04 Pressure RBL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: B04 reached the top pressure at 77' (97.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Home
19 matches
RB Leipzig RBL Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
5
Draws
5
8
Losses
6
Goals
31
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
31
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Flekken
Netherlands
1 M. Flekken
J. Quansah
England
4 J. Quansah
R. Andrich
Germany
8 R. Andrich
E. Tapsoba
Burkina Faso
12 E. Tapsoba
M. Amare Culbreath
Substitution
Germany
42 M. Amare Culbreath
A. García Serrano
Substitution
Spain
24 A. García Serrano
E. Palacios
Argentina
25 E. Palacios
A. Grimaldo García
Spain
20 A. Grimaldo García
I. Maza
Substitution
Algeria
30 I. Maza
N. Tella
Substitution
Nigeria
23 N. Tella
P. Schick
Substitution
Czech Republic
14 P. Schick
Pitch
M. Vandevoordt
Belgium
26 M. Vandevoordt
M. Finkgräfe
Substitution
Germany
35 M. Finkgräfe
E. Bitshiabu
Substitution
France
5 E. Bitshiabu
W. Orban
Hungary
4 W. Orban
R. Baku
Germany
17 R. Baku
C. Baumgartner
Austria
14 C. Baumgartner
N. Seiwald
Substitution
Austria
13 N. Seiwald
X. Schlager
Austria
24 X. Schlager
A. Nordby Nusa
Substitution
Norway
7 A. Nordby Nusa
R. Cardoso da Cruz
Substitution
Brazil
40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Y. Diomande
49 Y. Diomande

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
BayArena
Capacity :
30210
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Martin Thomsen
Mark Borsch
Sven Jablonski
Tobias Welz

Statistics

Possession
B04
56%
RBL
44%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
11 Big Chances Created 2
22 Shots 9
49 Dangerous attacks 54
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
23 Dribble Attempts 14
14 Throwins 11
9 Successful Dribbles 6
96 Ball Safe 75
15 Goal Attempts 10
14 Goal Kicks 9
8 Successful Headers 10
4 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

94 Attacks 94
7 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
49 Long Passes 30
452 Successful Passes 355
89 Successful Passes Percentage 86
16 Key Passes 13
30 Successful Long Passes 8
506 Passes 413

Defensive

9 Interceptions 10
19 Tackles 19
48 Duels Won 42
3 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 16
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Tobias Welz

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
6.8
4
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Defender
6.92
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Defender
6.76
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Defender
7.14
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Midfielder
7.46
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Midfielder
7.37
6
Ezequiel Fernández
Ezequiel Fernández
Midfielder85'
6.74
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Midfielder
6.86
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Midfielder
6.69
13
Arthur
Arthur
Defender77'
6.64
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Attacker
3
7.05
35
Christian Kofane
Christian Kofane
Attacker90+3'
6.77
23
Nathan Tella
Nathan Tella Attacker
6.9
19
Ernest Poku
Ernest Poku
Attacker77'
6.86
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Attacker
7.13
10
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman
Midfielder85'
7.07
Referee : Tobias Welz

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Vandevoordt
Maarten Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
6.87
4
Willi Orbán
Willi Orbán Defender
7.18
5
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
El Chadaille Bitshiabu Defender
6.84
23
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba
Defender46'
6.95
17
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku Defender
6.98
35
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe Defender
7.08
39
Benjamin Henrichs
Benjamin Henrichs
Defender84'
6.65
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder
6.96
20
Assan Ouédraogo
Assan Ouédraogo
Midfielder65'
7.04
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder
7.18
24
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Midfielder
6.82
7
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa Attacker
7.09
10
Brajan Gruda
Brajan Gruda
Attacker46'
7.18
40
Rômulo
Rômulo Attacker
6.99
11
Conrad Harder
Conrad Harder
Attacker65'
6.69
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
7.37

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christian Kofane → Patrik Schick
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Patrik Schick
Goal awarded
90'
Event
Patrik Schick
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
89'
Event
Malik Tillman
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Ezequiel Fernández → Aleix García
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Malik Tillman → Ibrahim Maza
9th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Benjamin Henrichs → Max Finkgräfe
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Christoph Baumgartner
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Christoph Baumgartner
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Arthur → Montrell Culbreath
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Ernest Poku → Nathan Tella
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Patrik Schick
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
72'
Event
Xaver Schlager
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Conrad Harder → Rômulo
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Assan Ouédraogo → Nicolas Seiwald
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Brajan Gruda → Antonio Nusa
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Castello Lukeba → El Chadaille Bitshiabu
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Nathan Tella
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
Event
Patrik Schick
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
25'
14'
Event
Max Finkgräfe
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Goal confirmed after a VAR decision.
90
Update Update
Christian Michel Kofane comes on for Patrik Schick.
89
Update Update
Goal! Patrik Schick scores with an assist from Alex Grimaldo. The score is now 4-1.
85
Update Update
Ignacio Ezequiel Agustin Fernandez Carba is on, and Aleix Garcia Serrano is off.
85
Update Update
Malik Tillman comes on for Ibrahim Maza.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christoph Baumgartner receives a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Benjamin Henrichs comes on for Max Finkgrafe.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malik Tillman receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Yan Diomande takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner scores with a header.
80
Update Update
Goal! Christoph Baumgartner scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Brajan Gruda.
79
Attempt Attempt
Brajan Gruda takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Substitution Substitution
Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares is substituted for Montrell Culbreath.
77
Update Update
Ernest Poku replaces Nathan Tella.
76
Update Update
Goal! Patrik Schick scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Ibrahim Maza.
76
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick scores with a left-footed shot.
74
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Alex Grimaldo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Xaver Schlager receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Montrell Culbreath takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Forzan Assan Ouedraogo replaces Nicolas Seiwald.
65
Update Update
Conrad Harder is on, and Romulo Jose Cardoso da Cruz is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick's left-footed shot is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Bote Baku takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Tella's right-footed shot is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick's left-footed shot is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Alex Grimaldo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner's header is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Romulo Jose Cardoso da Cruz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Lukeba is on, and Bitshiabu is off.
46
Update Update
Brajan Gruda is on, and Antonio Eromonsele Nordby Nusa is off.
46
Attempt Attempt
Yan Diomande takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Attempt Attempt
Brajan Gruda's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Montrell Culbreath takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Tella takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
41
Attempt Attempt
Montrell Culbreath takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Xaver Schlager takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Max Finkgrafe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Update Update
Jarell Quansah's header goes wide.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Tella takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Update Update
Edmond Tapsoba's header is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Tella takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Seiwald attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Update Update
Goal! Patrik Schick scores to make it 1-0.
25
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick scores with a left-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick takes a header but misses the shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Jarell Quansah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Jarell Quansah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Romulo Jose Cardoso da Cruz takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Max Finkgrafe receives a yellow card.
9
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Eromonsele Nordby Nusa takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Maza takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Maza takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Romulo Jose Cardoso da Cruz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's 4-1 triumph over RB Leipzig was a textbook display of control and execution, building on a 2-0 halftime lead with sustained pressure and possession dominance at 55%. Without disruptions from red cards or major tactical shifts, their minimal structural deviation of 2.7% underscored a performance true to form. Efficiency stayed in line, and market alignment held firm, reinforcing Leverkusen's status as the stronger side. This win bolsters their campaign momentum, exposing Leipzig's vulnerabilities while validating Leverkusen's attacking prowess and defensive resilience in a comprehensive outing.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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