Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
BayArena Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
Versus
Hamburger SV HSV
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome Hamburger SV to the BayArena for a Bundesliga regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting pretty in 4th place, Leverkusen boast a commanding power score of 90.3, dwarfing HSV's 63.52 and granting them a 26.8-point edge that underscores their structural superiority. The hosts' form score of 35.94 sharply contrasts with the visitors' meager 12.11, signaling momentum in Leverkusen's favor as they aim to solidify their top-four push. HSV, mired in 12th, face an uphill battle against a side renowned for clinical execution. With no recent outings detailed, focus shifts to Leverkusen's home dominance and HSV's struggles on the road. Set-piece metrics remain elusive due to low-confidence proxies, but Leverkusen's overall prowess positions them as clear frontrunners in this mismatch.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bayer 04 Leverkusen enjoy a 26.8-point power advantage over Hamburger SV, with scores of 90.3 versus 63.52.
  • Form: Leverkusen hold a form score of 35.94, towering over HSV's 12.11.
  • Squad: Leverkusen occupy 4th in the Bundesliga table while HSV languish in 12th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable for both teams.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies with no xG data available.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 67.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 19.5% (Δ+0%) | Hamburger SV 13.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 W
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 74 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 7 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bayer 04 Leverkusen
67.22%
Draw
19.53%
Away Hamburger SV
13.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.3
63.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Power Score
90.3
63.52
League Position
4
12
Global Rank
11
95

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Home
29 matches
Hamburger SV HSV Away
Match Record
13
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
13
Goals
46
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
46
+16
Goal Difference
-16
Expected Goals
1.87
xG
1.41
1.41
xGA
1.87

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T01:10:25+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

Official lineups and formations are usually announced 60–90 minutes before kickoff. Check back closer to the match to see the starting XIs here.

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
BayArena
Capacity :
30210
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

28
Janis Blaswich
Janis Blaswich Goalkeeper
36
Niklas Lomb
Niklas Lomb Goalkeeper
1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
18
Jonas Omlin
Jonas Omlin Goalkeeper
20
Alejandro Grimaldo García
Alejandro Grimaldo García Defender
21
Lucas Vázquez Iglesias
Lucas Vázquez Iglesias Defender
12
Edmond Fayçal Tapsoba
Edmond Fayçal Tapsoba Defender
5
Loïc Badé
Loïc Badé Defender
4
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Defender
15
Tim Oermann
Tim Oermann Defender
13
Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares
Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares Defender
41
Issa Traoré
Issa Traoré Defender
16
Axel Tape-Kobrissa
Axel Tape-Kobrissa Defender
24
Aleix García Serrano
Aleix García Serrano Midfielder
7
Jonas Hofmann
Jonas Hofmann Midfielder
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Midfielder
25
Exequiel Alejandro Palacios
Exequiel Alejandro Palacios Midfielder
10
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman Midfielder
6
Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballo
Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballo Midfielder
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Midfielder
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Attacker
11
Martin Terrier
Martin Terrier Attacker
23
Nathan Tella
Nathan Tella Attacker
19
Ernest Poku
Ernest Poku Attacker
17
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Eliesse Ben Seghir Attacker
42
Montrell Amare Culbreath
Montrell Amare Culbreath Attacker
35
Christian Michel Kofane
Christian Michel Kofane Attacker

Squad ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
12
Sander Tangvik
Sander Tangvik Goalkeeper
40
Hannes Steffen Hermann
Hannes Steffen Hermann Goalkeeper
41
Fernando Dickes
Fernando Dickes Goalkeeper
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
28
Miro Muheim
Miro Muheim Defender
3
Noah Katterbach
Noah Katterbach Defender
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo Defender
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Giorgi Gocholeishvili Defender
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Defender
8
Daniel Elfadli
Daniel Elfadli Defender
44
Luka Vušković
Luka Vušković Defender
43
Shafiq Bello Nandja
Shafiq Bello Nandja Defender
6
Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga
Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
20
Fabio Daniel Ferreira Vieira
Fabio Daniel Ferreira Vieira Midfielder
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
23
Albert Grønbæk Erlykke
Albert Grønbæk Erlykke Midfielder
39
Omar Abdel Megeed
Omar Abdel Megeed Midfielder
15
Yussuf Yurary Poulsen
Yussuf Yurary Poulsen Attacker
18
Bakery Jatta
Bakery Jatta Attacker
9
Robert Nesta Glatzel
Robert Nesta Glatzel Attacker
7
Mamadou Jean-Luc Diarra Dompé
Mamadou Jean-Luc Diarra Dompé Attacker
14
Rayan Philippe
Rayan Philippe Attacker
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
27
Philip Otele
Philip Otele Attacker
19
Damion Downs
Damion Downs Attacker
45
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé Attacker
49
Otto Emerson Stange
Otto Emerson Stange Attacker
38
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Attacker

CONCLUSION

Leverkusen enter as overwhelming favorites, leveraging their elite power rating and superior form to dominate proceedings at BayArena. HSV's lowly standing and poor recent metrics suggest vulnerability, particularly against Leverkusen's high-octane attack. Without standout set-piece edges or efficiency insights, the hosts' structural depth should prevail in a routine victory. Expect Leverkusen to extend their top-four buffer while HSV grapple with another setback in their mid-table scrap.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Bundesliga, Germany View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ