Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
BayArena Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
1 – 1
Hamburger SV HSV
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Jarell Quansah  - 78'
Goal
|
Goal
Fábio Vieira - 61'

CONTEXT

Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosted Hamburger SV in a match that concluded with a 1-1 draw. The game remained scoreless at halftime. Leverkusen controlled 60 percent of possession while generating 3.14 expected goals against 2.63 for the visitors. Despite the stronger underlying metrics for the home side the final scoreline ended level. No red cards were shown to either team. The result represented a moderate deviation of 11.2 percent for Leverkusen from pre-match projections. The outcome proved inconsistent with expected goals yet remained aligned with broader market indicators. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leverkusen recorded a moderate 11.2 percent deviation from pre-match projections as the stronger side.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall match dynamics and possession distribution.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with xG values of 3.14 for Leverkusen and 2.63 for Hamburger SV.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw proved aligned with market expectations despite the xG differential of 0.51.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations indicated a home advantage for Leverkusen that did not translate into a victory.
  • Event impact: The match stayed even at halftime with a 0-0 score before both teams scored once in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred for either side so game flow experienced no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Stieler

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Borsch

1st Assistant

Germany

L. Koslowski

2nd Assistant

Germany

R. Braun

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 W
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 77 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 75 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 77 D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 7 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bayer 04 Leverkusen
8.47%
Draw
88.78%
Away Hamburger SV
2.74%

Movement

Changes since opening
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
-0.85%
Draw
+0.84%
Hamburger SV
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.86
64.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Power Score
88.86
64.06
League Position
6
13
Global Rank
15
84

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hamburger SV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hamburger SV
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.58
51.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
51.75
50.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen -0.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Hamburger SV +0.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs
Hamburger SV
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs
Hamburger SV
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.30
Hamburger SV 0.56
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.03
Hamburger SV 0.01
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • B04 had peak pressure around 52'.
  • B04 started the game with stronger pressure.
B04 Pressure HSV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: B04 reached the top pressure at 52' (99.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Home
29 matches
Hamburger SV HSV Away
Match Record
13
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
13
Goals
46
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
46
+16
Goal Difference
-16
Expected Goals
1.87
xG
1.41
1.41
xGA
1.87

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:55:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Flekken
Netherlands
1 M. Flekken
J. Quansah
England
4 J. Quansah
R. Andrich
Substitution
Germany
8 (C) R. Andrich
E. Tapsoba
Burkina Faso
12 E. Tapsoba
M. Amare Culbreath
Substitution
Germany
42 M. Amare Culbreath
A. García Serrano
Substitution
Spain
24 A. García Serrano
E. Palacios
Argentina
25 E. Palacios
A. Grimaldo García
Spain
20 A. Grimaldo García
M. Tillman
Substitution
United States
10 M. Tillman
I. Maza
Algeria
30 I. Maza
P. Schick
Czech Republic
14 P. Schick
Pitch
S. Tangvik
Norway
12 S. Tangvik
J. Torunarigha
Substitution
Nigeria
25 J. Torunarigha
L. Vušković
Croatia
44 L. Vušković
W. Omari
Substitution
France
17 W. Omari
A. Erlykke
Denmark
23 A. Erlykke
A. Sambi Lokonga
Belgium
6 A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
Germany
21 N. Remberg
N. Capaldo
Argentina
24 (C) N. Capaldo
R. Philippe
Substitution
France
14 R. Philippe
F. Ferreira Vieira
Substitution
Portugal
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
O. Emerson Stange
Substitution
Germany
49 O. Emerson Stange

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
BayArena
Capacity :
30210
Attendance :
30210
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tobias Stieler
Mark Borsch
Lasse Koslowski
Robin Braun

Statistics

Possession
B04
58%
HSV
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 5
87 Dangerous attacks 34
60 Possession 40
8 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Goal Attempts 11
0 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
8 Successful Headers 11
1 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0
4 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 5
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
8 Goal Kicks 13
10 Dribble Attempts 11
17 Throwins 10
57 Ball Safe 78

Attacking

6 Big Chances Missed 3
131 Attacks 68

Possession

90 Successful Passes Percentage 81
585 Passes 404
527 Successful Passes 328
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
26 Long Passes 54
15 Successful Long Passes 23
16 Key Passes 15

Defensive

5 Saves 7
14 Tackles 8
42 Duels Won 32
8 Interceptions 10

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 6
38 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

8 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tobias Stieler

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
7.2
4
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Defender
7.95
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich (C) Defender
6.62
17
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Attacker62'
7.41
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Defender
6.91
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Midfielder
7.25
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Midfielder
8.17
21
Lucas Vázquez
Lucas Vázquez
Defender84'
6.8
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Midfielder
7.75
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Midfielder
6.93
13
Arthur
Arthur
Defender62'
6.72
10
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman Attacker
7.12
7
Jonas Hofmann
Jonas Hofmann
Midfielder62'
6.72
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Attacker
6.95
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Attacker
6.89
Referee : Tobias Stieler

Starting XI ▼

12
Sander Tangvik
Sander Tangvik Goalkeeper
8.47
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
7.1
43
S. Nandja
S. Nandja
Defender77'
6.21
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
6.22
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis
Defender89'
6.58
44
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic Defender
7.3
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
7.57
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
6.69
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk Midfielder
6.32
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo (C) Midfielder
7.59
14
Rayan Philippe
Rayan Philippe Attacker
7.04
28
Miro Muheim
Miro Muheim
Defender63'
6.32
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Attacker
7.68
45
Fabio Baldé
Fabio Baldé
Attacker77'
6.47
49
Otto Stange
Otto Stange Attacker
6.61
15
Yussuf Poulsen
Yussuf Poulsen
Attacker77'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
William Mikelbrencis → Jordan Torunarigha
9th Substitution
Event
Lucas Vázquez → Aleix García
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Jarell Quansah 
Header / 2nd Goal
78'
78'
Event
Nicolás Capaldo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Fabio Baldé → Fábio Vieira
5th Substitution
77'
Event
S. Nandja → Warmed Omari
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Yussuf Poulsen → Otto Stange
7th Substitution
Event
Arthur
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
63'
Event
Miro Muheim → Rayan Philippe
4th Substitution
Event
Jonas Hofmann → Malik Tillman
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Arthur → Montrell Culbreath
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Eliesse Ben Seghir → Robert Andrich
3rd Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Fábio Vieira
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Patrik Schick
GoalkeeperSave
25'
24'
Event
Jordan Torunarigha
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

16
Attempt Attempt
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but missing to the left.
15
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Grimaldo's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
14
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
14
Update Update
Montrell Culbreath of Bayer 04 Leverkusen won a free kick in an attacking position.
10
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Philippe from Hamburger SV had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but sending it over the goal.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen had a missed chance as his right-footed shot from the right side of the box went over the goal. Alejandro Grimaldo provided the assist.
8
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Patrik Schick from Bayer 04 Leverkusen shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Sander Tangvik from Hamburger SV saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Exequiel Palacios with a through ball.
5
Attempt Attempt
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went close and missed. Luka Vuskovic provided the assist.
3
Update Update
Offside called against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Alejandro Grimaldo is offside.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Hamburger SV highlighted a contest where possession and chance creation favored the home team without securing the win. Leverkusen maintained 60 percent possession and held the edge in expected goals yet could not convert the advantage into three points. The halftime stalemate at 0-0 set the stage for an even second period that produced one goal each. Absence of red cards allowed both sides to retain full personnel throughout the ninety minutes. The moderate deviation observed for Leverkusen reflected an inability to match performance metrics with the result. Overall the match demonstrated balanced second-half adjustments that preserved the draw as the final outcome.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Bundesliga, Germany View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.