Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
FCA
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosted FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga, suffering a 1-2 defeat despite being the stronger team. The match was level at halftime with both sides scoring once, ending 1-1 after 45 minutes. Leverkusen controlled possession at 71% to Augsburg's 29%, yet failed to capitalize, allowing the visitors to secure victory with a second-half goal. No red cards were issued, and no major tactical adjustments were noted in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation, with Augsburg outperforming structural expectations by 85.8%. Market pre-match probabilities had heavily favored Leverkusen at 67.2%, with Augsburg at just 14.2%, highlighting the misalignment. Efficiency remained in line with underlying metrics, though xG data is unavailable for precise alignment assessment. Augsburg's resilience exposed Leverkusen's wastefulness in chance creation.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Augsburg achieved a significant 85.8% deviation from structural expectations in defeating the stronger Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics for both teams.
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xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
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Market alignment: Outcome misaligned with pre-match market probabilities favoring Leverkusen heavily.
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xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of available data.
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Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments impacted the final result.
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Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from disciplinary actions.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
B. Brand
Other match officials
T. Bauer
4th Official
T. Stein
1st Assistant
M. Achmüller
2nd Assistant
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
Movement
Changes since opening
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
Team Power Ranking
i
33.75
19.65
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- B04 had peak pressure around 38'.
- B04 started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:33+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs
FC Köln
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: RheinEnergieStadion


FC Augsburg
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: WWK Arena
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.
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Author
Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.

Match Commentary