Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
BayArena Wed, 11 Mar - 5:45 PM
Champions League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
1 – 1
Arsenal ARS
Full Time Wed, 11 Mar 5:45 PM
Robert Andrich - 46'
Goal
|
Goal
Kai Havertz - 89' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Arsenal has officially finished in a 1-1 draw. After a closely contested first half that ended entirely scoreless, both sides eventually found the back of the net. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Arsenal entered as the stronger team and clear favorites with a 62.2% implied probability of winning, compared to just 15.4% for Leverkusen and 22.4% for a draw. Arsenal controlled the overall tempo, finishing with 55% possession compared to Leverkusen's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with either team's underlying chance creation. Despite the lack of xG data, the efficiency shift was noted to be in line with overall match dynamics, with Leverkusen showing a slight positive efficiency and Arsenal a negative one. Ultimately, the 1-1 outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market, frustrating the heavily favored visitors. The match was played cleanly with zero red cards issued to either side, ensuring that numerical disadvantages did not artificially impact this surprisingly level result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Meler

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Uyarcan

1st Assistant

A. Özkara

2nd Assistant

C. Aydın

4th Official

Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 82 W
Olympiacos F.C. Rank: 82 L
Newcastle United Rank: 91 D
Manchester City Rank: 97 W
Benfica Rank: 87 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 98 W
Slavia Praha Rank: 78 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Olympiacos F.C. Rank: 82 W
Athletic Club Rank: 79 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bayer 04 Leverkusen
15.4%
Draw
22.38%
Away Arsenal
62.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.46
100
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Arsenal
Power Score
89.46
100
League Position
16
1
Global Rank
14
1

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bayer 04 Leverkusen Arsenal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.56
16.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.55
25.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Arsenal -0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Arsenal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Arsenal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Arsenal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Arsenal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Home
2 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-03-12T00:01:21+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 11, 2026, 05:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Stadium :
BayArena
Capacity :
30210
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Halil Umut Meler
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Abdullah Bora Özkara
C. Aydın

Statistics

Possession
B04
47%
ARS
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 1
30 Dangerous attacks 62
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 8
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

17 Throwins 12
5 Dribble Attempts 11
80 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
4 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 6
81 Ball Safe 67
6 Goal Attempts 7
7 Successful Headers 14
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 1
3 Substitutions 3
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

71 Attacks 111
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 87
387 Successful Passes 456
15 Successful Long Passes 15
442 Passes 523
44 Long Passes 30
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
9 Key Passes 4

Defensive

13 Tackles 4
11 Interceptions 6
34 Duels Won 33
1 Saves 2

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Kai Havertz
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Alejandro Grimaldo
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
89'
Event
Kai Havertz
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Ezequiel Fernández → Exequiel Palacios
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Jonas Hofmann → Martin Terrier
5th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Gabriel Jesus → Eberechi Eze
6th Substitution
Event
Malik Tillman → Ibrahim Maza
3rd Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Kai Havertz → Viktor Gyökeres
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Martín Zubimendi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Exequiel Palacios
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
60'
Event
Noni Madueke → Bukayo Saka
1st Substitution
Event
Ernest Poku
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Robert Andrich
Header / 1st Goal
46'
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Gabriel Martinelli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Robert Andrich
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Aleix García from Bayer 04 Leverkusen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Kai Havertz from Arsenal committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kai Havertz from Arsenal has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Edmond Tapsoba from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Arsenal.
90
Update Update
Jurriën Timber from Arsenal committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arsenal after a play that resulted in a deflection off Ernest Poku.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1, Arsenal 1. Kai Havertz from Arsenal steps up and scores the penalty, striking it with his left foot into the bottom left corner.
86
Update Update
Arsenal has been awarded a penalty! Noni Madueke is brought down inside the box.
86
Update Update
Malik Tillman commits a foul in the penalty area, resulting in a penalty awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
85
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
85
Update Update
William Saliba from Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Jurriën Timber of Arsenal attempted a header from close range but failed to convert.
83
Update Update
William Saliba from Arsenal committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Jonas Hofmann comes on to replace Martin Terrier.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Ezequiél Fernández comes on to replace Exequiel Palacios.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus comes on to replace Eberechi Eze.
81
Update Update
Offside call against Arsenal. Kai Havertz has been caught in an offside position.
80
Update Update
Martin Terrier committed a foul against Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
80
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arsenal after Malik Tillman allowed the ball to go out.
77
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Aleix García of Bayer 04 Leverkusen took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Christian Kofane after a quick counterattack.
76
Update Update
The pause has concluded. They are set to resume play.
75
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Robert Andrich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
74
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres committed a foul against Arsenal.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Malik Tillman is coming on to replace Ibrahim Maza.
74
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres commits a foul against Arsenal.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Kai Havertz comes on for Viktor Gyökeres.
69
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi commits a foul against Arsenal.
69
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a left-footed shot from over 40 yards out on the left flank.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Exequiel Palacios of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
61
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Arsenal after Robert Andrich allowed the ball to go out.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Noni Madueke comes on to replace Bukayo Saka.
58
Update Update
Ernest Poku committed a foul against Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
58
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ernest Poku of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
48
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Eberechi Eze, who delivered a cross.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes the lead, 1-0 against Arsenal. Robert Andrich scores with a header from close range, directing the ball into the top left corner. The assist comes from Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
46
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Martin Terrier of Bayer 04 Leverkusen heads the ball from the center of the box, but David Raya from Arsenal makes a fantastic save, catching it in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a precise cross.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after David Raya allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0, Arsenal 0.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Exequiel Palacios.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Martín Zubimendi allowed it.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it's blocked. The assist came from Alejandro Grimaldo.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Arsenal both locked in a scoreless draw, 0-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Exequiel Palacios.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bukayo Saka from Arsenal takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Declan Rice.
39
Update Update
Bukayo Saka from Arsenal earned a free kick on the right flank.
39
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Declan Rice from Arsenal committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Aleix García from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli committed a foul for Arsenal.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
25
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
25
Update Update
William Saliba of Arsenal committed a foul.
24
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Piero Hincapié from Arsenal takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Janis Blaswich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen makes a fantastic save, denying him in the top left corner.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jarell Quansah from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Christian Kofane.
21
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal.
19
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot taken from the left side of the penalty area.
15
Update Update
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
15
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the left. The assist came from Christian Kofane after a quick counterattack.
15
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push is underway. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped.
7
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres from Arsenal earned a free kick on the left flank.
5
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Bukayo Saka from Arsenal took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it went wide to the left.
5
Update Update
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
1
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Bukayo Saka committed a foul for Arsenal.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arsenal exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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