Basel vs Thun Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
St. Jakob-Park Sat, 2 May - 6:30 PM
Super League
Basel BAS
3 Winner 1
Thun THU
Full Time Sat, 2 May 6:30 PM
Round 35 Championship Round
Koba Koindredi - 90+1'
Albian Ajeti - 86'
Metinho  - 43'
Goal
|
Goal
Valmir Matoshi - 41'
|
Second yellow card Fabio Fehr 81'
Red Card Christopher Ibayi 89'

CONTEXT

FC Basel defeated FC Thun 3-1 in a Swiss Super League encounter defined by second-half drama. The match was tied 1-1 at halftime, reflecting a balanced opening period despite Basel's 60% possession dominance over Thun's 40%. Basel, recognized as the stronger team, gradually asserted control but faced resilient defending until Thun's discipline crumbled with two red cards. This left Thun with nine players, enabling Basel to net two unanswered goals for the victory. The outcome marked a significant 65.9% structural deviation in Basel's favor from pre-match market positions, where Thun appeared marginally favored. Efficiency shifts remained in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Red card distortion heavily influenced proceedings post-interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Basel achieved a significant 65.9% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment did not occur as the result deviated substantially.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: Thun's two red cards decisively shifted match momentum to Basel.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments after 1-1 halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. San

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Zürcher

1st Assistant

C. dos Santos

2nd Assistant

J. Jaussi

4th Official

Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
VS
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.09
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 61 L
Thun Rank: 64 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 D
Winterthur Rank: 44 W
Servette Rank: 62 W
St. Gallen Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: 64 L
Basel Rank: 63 W
Lugano Rank: 65 L
Zürich Rank: 50 L
Grasshopper Rank: 49 W
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
33
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
33 - 15 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Basel
34.06%
Draw
25.66%
Away Thun
40.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Basel
-63.8%
Draw
+23.74%
Thun
+40.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.36
55.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Basel
Thun
Power Score
63.36
55.58
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
381
350

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Basel Thun

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.08
19.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.75
35.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Basel +1.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Thun -1.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Basel Thun
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Basel Thun
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Basel
vs
Thun
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Basel Thun
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Basel 0.30
Thun 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Basel Thun
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Basel 0.03
Thun 0.05
Basel
Thun
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAS had peak pressure around 90'.
  • BAS started the game with stronger pressure.
BAS Pressure THU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAS reached the top pressure at 90' (95.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 55 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Basel BAS Home
55 matches
Thun THU Away
Match Record
33
Wins
7
15
Draws
15
7
Losses
33
Goals
120
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
120
+57
Goal Difference
-57

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
M. Salvi
Switzerland
13 M. Salvi
K. Rüegg
Substitution
Switzerland
27 K. Rüegg
N. Vouilloz
Switzerland
3 N. Vouilloz
F. Daniliuc
Austria
24 F. Daniliuc
D. Schmid
Switzerland
31 D. Schmid
L. Leroy
France
22 L. Leroy
A. Silu
Brazil
5 A. Silu
A. Bačanin
Substitution
Serbia
14 A. Bačanin
J. Duranville
Substitution
Belgium
18 J. Duranville
G. Koloto
Substitution
37 G. Koloto
B. Traore
Ivory Coast
11 B. Traore
Pitch
N. Steffen
Switzerland
24 N. Steffen
M. Heule
Switzerland
27 M. Heule
M. Bürki
Switzerland
23 M. Bürki
J. Bamert
Switzerland
19 J. Bamert
F. Fehr
Switzerland
47 F. Fehr
J. Roth
Switzerland
16 J. Roth
L. Bertone
Substitution
Switzerland
6 L. Bertone
K. Imeri
Substitution
Switzerland
7 K. Imeri
V. Matoshi
Substitution
Switzerland
78 V. Matoshi
E. Rastoder
Substitution
Switzerland
74 E. Rastoder
C. Ibayi
Substitution
France
18 C. Ibayi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 35 · Championship Round
Stadium :
St. Jakob-Park
Capacity :
37994
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Zürcher
Claudio dos Santos
Jonathan Jaussi
Fedayi San

Statistics

Possession
BAS
59%
THU
41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
61 Dangerous attacks 38
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 2
21 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 5
3 Assists 1
26 Throwins 11
15 Dribble Attempts 21
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
9 Goal Kicks 9
6 Goal Attempts 6
57 Ball Safe 41
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 0

Attacking

81 Attacks 83

Possession

16 Key Passes 4
322 Successful Passes 184
397 Passes 263
81 Successful Passes Percentage 70
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
42 Successful Long Passes 18
73 Long Passes 45

Defensive

18 Tackles 17
1 Saves 3
5 Interceptions 12

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 11
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
9 Fouls 21

Lineup

Referee : Fedayi San

Starting XI ▼

13
Mirko Salvi
Mirko Salvi Goalkeeper
6.39
3
Nicolas Vouilloz
Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
6.88
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
7.05
27
Kevin Rüegg
Kevin Rüegg Defender
6.53
42
Evann Senaya
Evann Senaya
Defender67'
6.61
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid Defender
7.32
5
Metinho
Metinho Midfielder
7.01
14
Andrej Bacanin
Andrej Bacanin Midfielder
6.76
8
Koba Koindredi
Koba Koindredi
Midfielder76'
6.67
22
Léo Leroy
Léo Leroy Midfielder
6.87
11
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré Attacker
6.99
18
Julien Duranville
Julien Duranville Attacker
6.64
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah
Attacker67'
6.89
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto Attacker
6.75
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti
Attacker76'
6.65
Referee : Fedayi San

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.95
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Defender
7.01
23
Marco Bürki
Marco Bürki Defender
6.82
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Defender
7.05
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Defender
7.09
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone Midfielder
7.04
33
Marc Gutbub
Marc Gutbub
Attacker89'
6.5
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
7.02
70
Nils Reichmuth
Nils Reichmuth
Midfielder67'
6.91
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth Midfielder
6.79
78
Valmir Matoshi
Valmir Matoshi Midfielder
6.66
14
Mattias Käit
Mattias Käit
Midfielder46'
6.9
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi Attacker
6.97
96
Brighton Labeau
Brighton Labeau
Attacker67'
6.72
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
7.06
9
Furkan Dursun
Furkan Dursun
Attacker72'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Koba Koindredi
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
89'
Event
Marc Gutbub → Leonardo Bertone
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Christopher Ibayi
Argument / 1st Redcard
Event
Albian Ajeti
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
81'
Event
Fabio Fehr
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
81'
Event
Mauro Lustrinelli
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Albian Ajeti → Giacomo Koloto
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Koba Koindredi → Andrej Bacanin
8th Substitution
76'
72'
Event
Furkan Dursun → Elmin Rastoder
6th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Salah → Julien Duranville
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Evann Senaya → Kevin Rüegg
5th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Brighton Labeau → Christopher Ibayi
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Nils Reichmuth → Kastriot Imeri
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Mattias Käit → Valmir Matoshi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Metinho 
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
41'
Event
Valmir Matoshi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Dominik Schmid
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
39'
39'
Event
Elmin Rastoder
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Valmir Matoshi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Fabio Fehr
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Marc Gutbub is substituted for Leonardo Bertone.
90
Attempt Attempt
Brighton Labeau takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Koba Koindredi takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
86
Attempt Attempt
Albian Ajeti scores with a right-footed shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Salah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Koba Koindredi scores with a left-footed shot.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fabio Fehr receives a second yellow card.
83
Attempt Attempt
Leo Leroy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Salah takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Update Update
Albian Ajeti replaces Giacomo Koloto.
76
Update Update
Koba Koindredi comes on for Andrej Bacanin.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Salah takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Update Update
Furkan Dursun comes on for Elmin Rastoder.
73
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Bacanin takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Update Update
Labeau comes on for Ibayi at Brighton.
67
Update Update
Nils Reichmuth is on, and Valmir Matoshi is off.
67
Update Update
Evann Senaya replaces Kevin Ruegg.
67
Update Update
Ibrahim Salah comes on for Julien Duranville.
66
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Bertone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Bacanin takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Julien Duranville's left-footed shot is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Leo Leroy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Metinho took a left-footed shot, but it was blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Ruegg takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Metinho takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Mattias Kait comes on for Valmir Matoshi.
43
Attempt Attempt
Metinho scores with a right-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Valmir Matoshi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
33
Attempt Attempt
Kastriot Imeri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Bacanin takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Kastriot Imeri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Valmir Matoshi receives a yellow card.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fabio Fehr receives a yellow card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Koloto takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Leo Leroy takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Benie Adama Traore takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Basel's 3-1 win over Thun highlighted their superior quality, particularly after Thun's two red cards reduced them to nine men in the second half. Level at 1-1 at the break, Basel leveraged 60% possession and numerical advantage to score twice more. This result, a significant deviation from pre-match market views, affirms Basel's stronger standing. Efficiency held steady, but absent xG limits performance nuance. The red cards created clear distortion, allowing Basel to dominate late and secure a convincing outcome that boosts their campaign momentum effectively.

Basel vs Thun preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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