Basel vs St. Gallen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
St. Jakob-Park Yesterday - 2:30 PM
Super League
Basel BAS
1 Winner 3
St. Gallen St. Gallen
Full Time Yesterday 2:30 PM
Round 37 Championship Round
Nicolas Vouilloz - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Nevio Scherrer - 89'
Carlo Boukhalfa - 78'
Aliou Baldé - 51'

CONTEXT

Basel faced St. Gallen in the Swiss Super League, suffering a 1-3 home defeat. The halftime score stood at 0-0, with Basel controlling 61% possession yet failing to score. St. Gallen, identified as the stronger team, mounted a decisive second-half comeback, netting three goals to secure victory. Despite Basel's dominance in ball control, St. Gallen's superior finishing efficiency turned the tide. No red cards were issued, maintaining a clean disciplinary record. The result marked a significant structural deviation of 71.8% in St. Gallen's favor, diverging sharply from pre-match structural expectations. Efficiency shifts aligned with anticipated patterns, underscoring St. Gallen's clinical execution under pressure. This outcome highlights how possession stats do not always dictate results in structured play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed 71.8% significant structural deviation favoring St. Gallen.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any scoreline distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Fähndrich

Switzerland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Hirzel

1st Assistant

Switzerland

G. Maire

2nd Assistant

Switzerland

H. Sanli

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

Super League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.57
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.46
Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
VS
St. Gallen E. Maaßen
E. Maaßen
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys Rank: 62 L
Thun Rank: 65 W
Sion Rank: 61 L
Thun Rank: 62 L
Young Boys Rank: 65 D
Winterthur Rank: 44 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: 66 W
Sion Rank: 62 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Luzern Rank: 60 D
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Sion Rank: 65 D
37
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
37 - 18 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Basel
47.53%
Draw
24.23%
Away St. Gallen
28.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Basel
+47.31%
Draw
+22.31%
St. Gallen
-69.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.2
65.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Basel
St. Gallen
Power Score
61.2
65.56
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
454
317

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Gallen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Basel St. Gallen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Gallen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.44
59.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
59.87
23.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Basel -3.26 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Gallen +3.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
St. Gallen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Basel St. Gallen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Basel St. Gallen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
St. Gallen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Basel
vs
St. Gallen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Basel St. Gallen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Basel 0.17
St. Gallen 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Basel St. Gallen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Basel 0.06
St. Gallen 0.02
Basel
St. Gallen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAS had peak pressure around 17'.
  • BAS started the game with stronger pressure.
BAS Pressure St. Gallen Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAS reached the top pressure at 17' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Basel BAS Home
72 matches
St. Gallen St. Gallen Away
Match Record
37
Wins
17
18
Draws
18
17
Losses
37
Goals
142
Goals Scored
87
87
Goals Conceded
142
+55
Goal Difference
-55

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T00:01:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Hitz
Switzerland
1 M. Hitz
K. Tsunemoto
Substitution
Japan
6 K. Tsunemoto
N. Vouilloz
Switzerland
3 N. Vouilloz
F. Daniliuc
Austria
24 F. Daniliuc
D. Schmid
Switzerland
31 D. Schmid
A. Silu
Brazil
5 A. Silu
L. Leroy
Substitution
France
22 L. Leroy
J. Duranville
Substitution
Belgium
18 J. Duranville
X. Shaqiri
Substitution
Switzerland
10 X. Shaqiri
B. Traore
Ivory Coast
11 B. Traore
G. Koloto
Substitution
37 G. Koloto
Pitch
L. Ati-Zigi
Ghana
1 L. Ati-Zigi
C. Okoroji
Germany
36 C. Okoroji
C. Kleine-Bekel
Germany
3 C. Kleine-Bekel
T. Gaal
Substitution
Germany
26 T. Gaal
M. Stevanovic
Serbia
64 M. Stevanovic
C. Boukhalfa
Substitution
Germany
11 C. Boukhalfa
C. Konietzke
Substitution
Switzerland
63 C. Konietzke
L. Görtler
Substitution
Germany
16 L. Görtler
J. Ruiz
Spain
74 J. Ruiz
A. Balde
Senegal
14 A. Balde
A. Vogt
Substitution
Switzerland
18 A. Vogt

General Information

Date & Time :
May 14, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 37 · Championship Round
Stadium :
St. Jakob-Park
Capacity :
37994
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lukas Fähndrich
Pascal Hirzel
Guillaume Maire
Hüseyin Sanli

Statistics

Possession
BAS
57%
St. Gallen
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 6
66 Dangerous attacks 47
61 Possession 39
10 Corners 8
23 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

20 Dribble Attempts 19
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
24 Throwins 17
8 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Attempts 14
95 Ball Safe 65
1 Assists 1

Attacking

88 Attacks 86
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 68
330 Successful Passes 180
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
403 Passes 264
11 Key Passes 15
22 Successful Long Passes 16
44 Long Passes 50

Defensive

6 Interceptions 10
14 Tackles 25
3 Saves 1

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 18
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 23
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Marwin Hitz
Marwin Hitz Goalkeeper
3
Nicolas Vouilloz
Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
6
Keigo Tsunemoto
Keigo Tsunemoto Defender
27
Kevin Rüegg
Kevin Rüegg
Defender81'
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid Defender
5
Metinho
Metinho Midfielder
10
Xherdan Shaqiri
Xherdan Shaqiri Midfielder
8
Koba Koindredi
Koba Koindredi
Midfielder57'
11
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré Midfielder
18
Julien Duranville
Julien Duranville Midfielder
40
Agon Rexhaj
Agon Rexhaj
Attacker81'
22
Léo Leroy
Léo Leroy Midfielder
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah
Attacker67'
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto Attacker
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti
Attacker57'
Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Lawrence Ati Zigi
Lawrence Ati Zigi Goalkeeper
3
Colin Kleine-Bekel
Colin Kleine-Bekel Defender
26
Tom Gaal
Tom Gaal Defender
10
Lukas Daschner
Lukas Daschner
Midfielder46'
36
Chima Okoroji
Chima Okoroji Defender
11
Carlo Boukhalfa
Carlo Boukhalfa Midfielder
8
Jordi Quintillà
Jordi Quintillà
Midfielder84'
16
Lukas Görtler
Lukas Görtler Midfielder
23
Betim Fazliji
Betim Fazliji
Midfielder75'
63
Corsin Konietzke
Corsin Konietzke Midfielder
70
Nevio Scherrer
Nevio Scherrer
Attacker84'
64
Mihailo Stevanovic
Mihailo Stevanovic Midfielder
74
Joel Ruiz
Joel Ruiz Midfielder
14
Aliou Baldé
Aliou Baldé Attacker
18
Alessandro Vogt
Alessandro Vogt Attacker
69
Diego Besio
Diego Besio
Attacker61'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Chima Okoroji
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Nevio Scherrer
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Nicolas Vouilloz
Header / 3rd Goal
88'
87'
Event
Betim Fazliji
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Jordi Quintillà → Carlo Boukhalfa
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Nevio Scherrer → Corsin Konietzke
10th Substitution
Event
Agon Rexhaj → Julien Duranville
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Kevin Rüegg → Keigo Tsunemoto 
8th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Carlo Boukhalfa
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
Event
Betim Fazliji → Lukas Görtler
6th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Salah → Léo Leroy
5th Substitution
67'
61'
Event
Diego Besio → Alessandro Vogt
4th Substitution
Event
Dominik Schmid
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
59'
Event
Koba Koindredi → Xherdan Shaqiri  
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Albian Ajeti → Giacomo Koloto
2nd Substitution
57'
51'
Event
Aliou Baldé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
Event
Colin Kleine-Bekel
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Léo Leroy
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
47'
46'
Event
Lukas Daschner → Tom Gaal
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicolas Vouilloz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
39'
Event
Dominik Schmid
Penalty disallowed
13'
13'
Event
Aliou Baldé
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bénie Traoré
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
10'
10'
Event
Tom Gaal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Nevio Scherrer takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nicolas Vouilloz scores, making it 1-2.
88
Update Update
Nicolas Vouilloz scores with a header.
86
Attempt Attempt
Albian Ajeti attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Albian Ajeti takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Jordi Quintilla comes on for Carlo Boukhalfa.
83
Substitution Substitution
Nevio Scherrer is substituted for Corsin Konietzke.
81
Substitution Substitution
Kevin Ruegg is substituted for Keigo Tsunemoto.
81
Update Update
Agon Rexhaj replaces Julien Duranville.
80
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Schmid takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Boukhalfa takes a left-footed shot and scores.
78
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Schmid takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Diego Besio's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Betim Fazliji replaces Lukas Gortler.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Stevanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Gortler takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Colin Kleine Bekel attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Metinho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Corsin Konietzke takes a header shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Boukhalfa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Update Update
Diego Besio comes on for Alessandro Vogt.
61
Attempt Attempt
Julien Duranville takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Dominik Schmid.
58
Attempt Attempt
Julien Duranville takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Update Update
Koba Koindredi replaces Xherdan Shaqiri.
57
Update Update
Albian Ajeti comes on for Giacomo Koloto.
55
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Leo Leroy with his right foot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Stevanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aliou Balde scores, making it 1-0.
51
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Boukhalfa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde scores with a right-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Lukas Daschner replaces Tom Gaal.
45
Attempt Attempt
Benie Adama Traore takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Julien Duranville takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Vouilloz receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Gortler's right-footed shot is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Boukhalfa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Corsin Konietzke takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Gortler takes a header shot but misses.
25
Update Update
Carlo Boukhalfa's header is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Julien Duranville takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aliou Balde receives a yellow card.
13
Update Update
The VAR decision has cancelled the penalty for Dominik Schmid.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom Gaal receives a yellow card.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benie Adama Traore receives a yellow card.
4
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde's left-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Lukas Fahndrich.

CONCLUSION

St. Gallen's 3-1 triumph over Basel exemplifies effective counter-strategies against possession dominance. With 39% ball share, they maximized opportunities in the second half after a goalless first period. As the stronger team, their win reflects precise execution without disciplinary interruptions. The significant 71.8% deviation underscores vulnerabilities in Basel's approach despite 61% possession. Efficiency in line with norms reinforces St. Gallen's structured superiority. This result serves as a case study in conversion efficiency overriding territorial control, prompting Basel to refine finishing under pressure.

Basel vs St. Gallen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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