Basel vs Grasshopper Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
St. Jakob-Park Fri, 6 Mar - 2:11 PM
Super League
Basel BAS
1 Winner 0
Grasshopper GRA
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:11 PM
Bénie Traoré - 51'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Amir Abrashi 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Basel and Grasshopper has officially finished, with Basel securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. Following an evenly contested, goalless first half, the home side eventually broke the deadlock. This outcome aligned with the pre-match market, which rightly identified Basel as the stronger team. Ball possession was incredibly tight throughout the contest, with Basel holding a slight edge at 51% compared to Grasshopper's 49%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final outcome was strictly consistent with the underlying chance quality. A defining moment in the fixture was a red card issued to Grasshopper. This dismissal created a red card distortion that heavily impacted second-half adjustments and defensive structures. Even with pre-match market indicators sitting at an absolute baseline of zero, Basel demonstrated a significant performance deviation to ensure they captured the win. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with expectations. Despite a grinding negative efficiency metric for the hosts (-1.25) compared to the visitors (1.25), Basel successfully capitalized on their numerical advantage to seal the narrow home victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Basel showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Cibelli

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Jancevski

2nd Assistant

N. Gianforte

4th Official

M. Sbrissa

1st Assistant

Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
VS
Grasshopper G. Scheiblehner
G. Scheiblehner
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun Rank: L
Zürich Rank: W
Sion Rank: D
Servette Rank: D
Luzern Rank: W
Lausanne Sport Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: W
Zürich Rank: L
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: L
Young Boys Rank: D
Lugano Rank: D
37
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
37 - 19 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Basel
54.25%
Draw
24.95%
Away Grasshopper
20.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.76
28.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Basel
Grasshopper
Power Score
54.76
28.57
League Position
4
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Grasshopper — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Basel Grasshopper

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grasshopper

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grasshopper
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.90
37.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.45
24.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Basel -1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Grasshopper +1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
Grasshopper
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Basel
vs
Grasshopper
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Basel Grasshopper
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Basel Grasshopper
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Basel
Grasshopper
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Basel BAS Home
17 matches
Grasshopper GRA Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
8
Goals
28
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
28
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-03-06T14:12:04+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:11 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium :
St. Jakob-Park
Capacity :
37994
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luca Cibelli
Ilco Jancevski
Nico Gianforte
Matthias Sbrissa

Statistics

Possession
BAS
50%
GRA
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 6
34 Dangerous attacks 47
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 9
12 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

90 Ball Safe 78
10 Successful Dribbles 5
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
32 Throwins 21
19 Dribble Attempts 23
8 Goal Kicks 4
5 Substitutions 4
7 Goal Attempts 9
2 Injuries 1
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 109
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 82
356 Successful Passes 342
441 Passes 419
55 Long Passes 57
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
21 Successful Long Passes 27
7 Key Passes 12

Defensive

14 Interceptions 19
30 Tackles 25
5 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 21
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

8 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Koba Koindredi
Off the ball foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Amir Abrashi
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Event
Moussa Cissé
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Albian Ajeti → Giacomo Koloto
9th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Óscar Clemente Mues → Jonathan Asp Jensen
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Michael Frey
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Luka Mikulić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
74'
Event
Stephan Lichtsteiner
6th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Samuel Krasniqi → Dirk Abels
7th Substitution
Event
Koba Koindredi → Léo Leroy
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Julien Duranville → Bénie Traoré
5th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Amir Abrashi → Imourane Hassane
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Felix Emmanuel Tsimba → Luke Plange
4th Substitution
Event
Bénie Traoré
Header / 1st Goal
51'
Event
Ibrahim Salah → Xherdan Shaqiri  
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kevin Rüegg → Keigo Tsunemoto 
1st Substitution
27'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Basel exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Basel vs Grasshopper preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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