Bari 1908 vs Virtus Entella Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale San Nicola Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Bari 1908 BAR
2 Winner 0
Virtus Entella ENT
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Giulio Maggiore - 90+7'
Gabriele Moncini - 45+1'
Goal
|
Matthias Verreth 53' Red Card
|
Second yellow card Bernat Guiu 75'

CONTEXT

Bari 1908 claimed a solid 2-0 victory against Virtus Entella in a match marked by discipline issues and resilient defending. The home side opened the scoring in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime, capitalizing on their stronger squad status despite holding only 43% possession. Virtus Entella dominated the ball with 57% but struggled to convert chances. Tension escalated in the second half as both teams received a red card each, distorting the game's structure and forcing cautious play. Bari maintained composure, adding a second goal to seal the win. This outcome reflected minimal structural deviation from expectations, with efficiency holding steady. The result aligned with pre-match assessments, underscoring Bari's superiority even under adverse conditions like reduced numbers.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bari 1908 exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.4% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Mutual red cards equally disrupted both teams' strategies.
  • Red card distortion: Second half play distorted by red card to each side.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Mariani

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Bindoni

1st Assistant

A. Tegoni

2nd Assistant

E. Feliciani

4th Official

Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
VS
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 52 L
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Monza Rank: 65 L
Modena Rank: 57 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 L
Frosinone Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
Empoli Rank: 54 D
Venezia Rank: 70 D
Mantova Rank: 55 L
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Pescara Rank: 48 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bari 1908
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Virtus Entella
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.96
47.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bari 1908
Virtus Entella
Power Score
49.96
47.54
League Position
17
16
Global Rank
776
830

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bari 1908 Virtus Entella

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.42
31.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.58
14.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bari 1908 -1.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Virtus Entella +1.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Virtus Entella
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bari 1908 Virtus Entella
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Virtus Entella
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Virtus Entella
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bari 1908
vs
Virtus Entella
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bari 1908 Virtus Entella
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bari 1908 0.21
Virtus Entella 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Virtus Entella
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bari 1908 0.00
Virtus Entella 0.08
Bari 1908
Virtus Entella
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ENT had peak pressure around 69'.
  • BAR started the game with stronger pressure.
BAR Pressure ENT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ENT reached the top pressure at 69' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bari 1908 BAR Home
9 matches
Virtus Entella ENT Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
7
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:02:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
L. Dickmann
Substitution
Italy
24 L. Dickmann
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
V. Mantovani
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
E. Dorval
Substitution
France
93 E. Dorval
M. Braunöder
Austria
27 M. Braunöder
M. Verreth
Belgium
29 M. Verreth
K. Piscopo
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
R. Pagano
Substitution
Italy
8 R. Pagano
G. Moncini
Substitution
Italy
11 G. Moncini
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
Pitch
F. Del Frate
Italy
22 F. Del Frate
I. Marconi
Italy
15 I. Marconi
A. Tiritiello
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
L. Parodi
Substitution
Italy
23 L. Parodi
S. Di Mario
Substitution
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
L. Benedetti
Substitution
Italy
32 L. Benedetti
N. Squizzato
Substitution
Italy
5 N. Squizzato
A. Franzoni
Italy
24 A. Franzoni
F. Mezzoni
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Mezzoni
B. Guiu Vilanova
Spain
11 B. Guiu Vilanova
L. Cuppone
Italy
10 L. Cuppone

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Capacity :
58300
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Bindoni
Alberto Tegoni
Ermanno Feliciani
Maurizio Mariani

Statistics

Possession
BAR
44%
ENT
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
24 Dangerous attacks 40
43 Possession 57
1 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
27 Throwins 29
10 Goal Kicks 2
6 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 0
69 Ball Safe 62
2 Injuries 0
5 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

53 Attacks 60
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

57 Long Passes 57
240 Successful Passes 335
75 Successful Passes Percentage 82
20 Successful Long Passes 29
318 Passes 411
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
2 Key Passes 12

Defensive

5 Saves 3
47 Duels Won 52
5 Interceptions 7
18 Tackles 9

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 37
2 Accurate Crosses 13

Discipline

15 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
7.06
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
6.57
24
Lorenzo Dickmann
Lorenzo Dickmann Defender
6.71
30
Moussa Mané
Moussa Mané
Defender73'
6.58
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
6.78
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Defender
6.79
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore
Midfielder87'
6.79
8
Riccardo Pagano
Riccardo Pagano Midfielder
6.66
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves
Defender74'
6.56
27
Matthias Braunöder
Matthias Braunöder Midfielder
6.78
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
6.84
29
Matthias Verreth
Matthias Verreth Midfielder
7.03
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
6.74
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker62'
6.66
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
6.83
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Defender62'
6.64
Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

22
Federico Del Frate
Federico Del Frate Goalkeeper
6.78
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
7.16
15
Ivan Marconi
Ivan Marconi Defender
6.71
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi Defender
6.68
7
Davide Bariti
Davide Bariti
Midfielder67'
6.73
5
Niccolò Squizzato
Niccolò Squizzato Midfielder
6.79
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić
Midfielder79'
6.88
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni Midfielder
6.93
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Midfielder
6.9
46
Riccardo Turicchia
Riccardo Turicchia
Defender79'
6.56
32
Leonardo Benedetti
Leonardo Benedetti Midfielder
6.57
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli
Attacker68'
6.59
94
Francesco Mezzoni
Francesco Mezzoni Midfielder
6.75
9
Davide Pio Stabile
Davide Pio Stabile
Attacker90'
6.49
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
6.82
11
Bernat Guiu
Bernat Guiu Attacker
7.01

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giulio Maggiore
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+7'
90'
Event
Davide Pio Stabile → Francesco Mezzoni
10th Substitution
Event
Giulio Maggiore → Mehdi Dorval
9th Substitution
87'
79'
Event
Riccardo Turicchia → Stefano Di Mario
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Nermin Karić → Niccolò Squizzato
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Bernat Guiu
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Tomás Esteves → Riccardo Pagano
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Moussa Mané → Lorenzo Dickmann
5th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Stefano Di Mario
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Mattia Tirelli → Leonardo Benedetti
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Davide Bariti → Luca Parodi
3rd Substitution
Event
Marvin Cuni → Gabriele Moncini
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Dimitrios Nikolaou → Emanuele Rao
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Matthias Braunöder
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Matthias Verreth
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
53'
53'
Event
Bernat Guiu
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriele Moncini
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
45+1'
Event
Cas Odenthal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Davide Pio Stabile comes on for Francesco Mezzoni.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giulio Maggiore scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Braunoder takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Giulio Maggiore with his left foot finds the back of the net.
87
Update Update
Giulio Maggiore comes on for Mehdi Dorval.
84
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Mezzoni takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Franzoni's header is saved.
79
Update Update
Riccardo Turicchia replaces Stefano Di Mario.
79
Update Update
Nermin Karic comes on for Niccolo Squizzato.
78
Attempt Attempt
Luca Parodi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Bernat Guiu.
74
Update Update
Tomas Esteves comes on for Riccardo Pagano.
73
Update Update
Balla Moussa Mane is on, and Lorenzo Dickmann is off.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefano Di Mario receives a yellow card.
68
Update Update
Mattia Tirelli comes on for Leonardo Benedetti.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Marconi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Davide Bariti replaces Luca Parodi.
64
Update Update
Bernat Guiu's header attempt misses the target.
62
Update Update
Marvin Cuni comes on for Gabriele Moncini.
62
Substitution Substitution
Dimitrios Nikolaou is substituted for Emanuele Rao.
57
Attempt Attempt
Luca Parodi's right-footed shot is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Mezzoni's right-footed shot is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Franzoni takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matthias Braunoder receives a yellow card.
46
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Mezzoni takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
Goal! Gabriele Moncini scores, making it 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Moncini scores with a left-footed shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Verreth takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
23
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Franzoni takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cas Odenthal receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Bernat Guiu's right-footed shot is blocked.
14
Update Update
Leonardo Benedetti's header hits the post.

CONCLUSION

Bari 1908's 2-0 triumph over Virtus Entella highlights their tactical edge and defensive solidity, prevailing despite lower possession and a shared red card incident. Leading 1-0 at halftime set the tone, and the second goal ensured control amid chaotic conditions. As the stronger team, Bari delivered a performance consistent with minimal deviation and steady efficiency. This win reinforces their status, navigating red card distortion effectively while Virtus Entella faltered on chances. The alignment with expectations signals reliability for future outings.

Bari 1908 vs Virtus Entella preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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