Bari 1908 vs Modena Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Comunale San Nicola Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Bari 1908 BAR

Modena MOD

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Marvin Cuni - 80'

Davide Adorni - 31' (Own Goal)

Gabriele Moncini - 22' (P)

Giuseppe Ambrosino - 90'

CONTEXT

The match between Bari 1908 and Modena has officially finished, with Bari 1908 securing an unexpected 3-1 victory. This result stands as a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Bari 1908. Before kickoff, the market heavily favored the stronger visiting side, giving Modena a 53.5% chance of winning, while assigning just a 20% probability to the home team and 26.5% to a draw. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite suffering the upset, Modena dominated the ball, finishing with 63% possession while Bari 1908 managed only 37%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the 3-1 outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive chances created. However, the match's efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard performance variations. Bari 1908 established their control early, taking a 2-0 lead into halftime before finishing the job. The fixture remained disciplined with zero red cards issued to either side, meaning no major disciplinary events impacted the tactical flow as the home side securely held off Modena.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Bari 1908 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Arena

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Feliciani

4th Official

F. Votta

1st Assistant

G. Zanellati

2nd Assistant

M. Longo

A. Sottil

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

8 - 8 - 9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Bari 1908

20.01%

Draw

26.5%

Modena

53.49%

Team Power Ranking

50.59

57.58

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Bari 1908

Modena

Power Score

50.59

57.58

League Position

Global Rank

732

546

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score

Modena — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bari 1908 Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Modena

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

36.76

35.48

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

35.48

36.76

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Bari 1908 +0.12 Efficiency Index

Modena -0.12 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Bari 1908

Modena

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Modena

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Bari 1908 Modena

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Bari 1908 Modena

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Bari 1908

Modena

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Bari 1908

Modena

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Bari 1908 Modena

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Bari 1908 Modena

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Bari 1908

Modena

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bari 1908 BAR Home

25 matches

Modena MOD Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 3-5-2

31 M. Cerofolini

51 A. Cistana

26 C. Odenthal

13 V. Mantovani

30 B. Manè

80 F. Artioli

18 G. Maggiore

28 K. Piscopo

19 T. Pontes Esteves

17 E. Rao

11 G. Moncini

1 L. Chichizola

20 B. Nieling

28 D. Adorni

77 D. Tonoli

98 L. Zanimacchia

8 S. Santoro

16 F. Gerli

71 S. Wiafe

7 F. Zampano

9 E. Gliozzi

99 M. De Luca

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Capacity :

58300

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Ermanno Feliciani

Federico Votta

Glauco Zanellati

Alberto Arena

Statistics

Possession

BAR

41%

MOD

59%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1

5 Big Chances Created 4

8 Shots 6

32 Dangerous attacks 67

37 Possession 63

4 Corners 7

13 Free kicks 2

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

14 Goal Kicks 7

5 Dribble Attempts 6

12 Throwins 22

1 Hit Woodwork 1

1 Penalties 0

79 Ball Safe 85

13 Goal Attempts 16

5 Successful Dribbles 6

5 Substitutions 5

3 Injuries 1

1 Assists 1

Attacking

71 Attacks 107

Possession

180 Successful Passes 323

258 Passes 398

24 Long Passes 15

70 Successful Passes Percentage 81

10 Key Passes 11

Defensive

8 Saves 8

12 Tackles 16

50 Duels Won 47

7 Interceptions 3

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

1 Offsides 0

2 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Alberto Arena

Manager ▼

M. Longo Coach

Starting XI ▼

Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper

Valerio Mantovani Defender

Cas Odenthal Defender

Andrea Cistana Defender

Giulio Maggiore Midfielder

Daouda Traore

Midfielder87'

Kevin Piscopo Midfielder

Moussa Mané Midfielder

Federico Artioli Midfielder

Matthias Braunöder

Midfielder62'

Gabriele Moncini Attacker

Marvin Cuni

Attacker69'

Emanuele Rao Attacker

Mehdi Dorval

Defender69'

Tomás Esteves Attacker

Matthias Verreth

Midfielder87'

Substitutes ▼

Matthias Braunöder

Midfielder62'

Marvin Cuni

Attacker69'

Mehdi Dorval

Defender69'

Daouda Traore

Midfielder87'

Matthias Verreth

Midfielder87'

Bench ▼

Marco Pissardo Goalkeeper

Raffaele Pucino Defender

Giacomo Stabile Defender

Dimitrios Nikolaou Defender

Riccardo Pagano Midfielder

Nicolò Cavuoti Midfielder

Christian Gytkjaer Attacker

Referee : Alberto Arena