Baltika Kaliningrad vs Sochi Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sat, 21 Mar - 5:30 PM
Premier League Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 
4 
0
0
Sochi Sochi Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 22 · Regular Season
Mikhail Ryadno - 87'
Maksim Petrov - 84' (P)
Aleksandr Filin - 12'
Sergey Volkov - 5' (Own Goal)
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Kirill Zaika 90+5' STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between Baltika Kaliningrad and Sochi is officially finished, with Baltika securing a commanding 4-0 full-time victory. The home side established their dominance early on, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the half-time break. This decisive result represented a significant deviation in favor of Baltika Kaliningrad compared to baseline pre-match expectations. However, the final outcome ultimately aligned with the broader pre-match market positioning them as the stronger side, despite neutral zero-value market data. In terms of general play, possession was fairly balanced. Baltika Kaliningrad held a slight edge on the ball with 52%, leaving Sochi with 48%. Expected goals (xG) figures were completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it is impossible to determine if the outcome was strictly consistent with the underlying xG metrics. Even so, the overall efficiency shifts remained firmly in line with the final result. The match's flow was profoundly impacted by a crucial disciplinary event. Sochi suffered an away red card, reducing them to ten men. This dismissal caused notable second-half adjustments and clear red card distortion, entirely stifling any chance of a Sochi comeback while allowing Baltika Kaliningrad to comfortably dictate the remainder of the game.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
- Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Y. Nagaytsev
VS
I. Osinkin
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.62
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: 73 W
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 W
Orenburg Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: 75 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 49 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
Akron Rank: 55 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Baltika Kaliningrad0%
Draw
0%
Sochi0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.66 43.88 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad SochiPower Score
56.66
43.88
League Position
4
16
Global Rank
280
815
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Baltika Kaliningrad
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Sochi
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.42
13.65
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.65
39.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad +2.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi -2.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
3 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record 1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals 2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:27+00:00
STARTING XI
Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
67 M. Borisko
23 M. Beveev
2 S. Varatynov
25 (C) A. Filin
4 N. Gassama
I. Manelov
#6956'
77 E. Ćivić
E. Anderson Gomez
#2189'
73 M. Petrov
I. Belikov
#2665'
22 N. Titkov
10 I. Petrov
M. Ryadno
#6856'
15 T. Yenne
C. Nnamdi
#9065'
91 B. Gil Hurtado
35 A. Degtev
17 A. Makarchuk
3 A. Soldatenkov
4 V. Litvinov
F. Kamano
#4561'
82 S. Volkov
27 (C) K. Zaika
A. Metsiev
#6689'
7 A. Zinkovskiy
19 A. Kovalenko
A. Korneev
#1888'
16 M. Mukhin
P. Meleshin
#1178'
10 M. Kramarič
M. Ignatov
#878'
9 Z. Fedorov
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 05:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
👥 Capacity :
35212
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Stanislav Matveev
Igor Demeshko
Dmitri Malikov
Matvey Zaika
Next Match
Baltika Kaliningrad
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
Sochi
vs
Rubin Kazan
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Mon, 6 Apr - 4:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
53%
Sochi
47%
Top Statistics
4 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 3
50 Dangerous attacks 31
52 Possession 48
1 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1
Match Overview
1 Assists 0
7 Successful Dribbles 8
15 Dribble Attempts 17
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
22 Successful Headers 22
22 Throwins 17
1 Goal Kicks 13
2 Penalties 0
87 Ball Safe 93
1 Injuries 3
5 Substitutions 5
12 Goal Attempts 5
Attacking
103 Attacks 85
3 Big Chances Missed 0
Possession
71 Successful Passes Percentage 65
405 Passes 376
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
289 Successful Passes 246
77 Long Passes 93
33 Successful Long Passes 36
Defensive
21 Tackles 19
8 Interceptions 13
1 Saves 3
Build-up
11 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 3
Discipline
16 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 2
Lineup
Baltika Kaliningrad Referee : Stanislav Matveev
Manager ▼
Y. Nagaytsev Coach
Starting XI ▼
67 Maksim Borisko Goalkeeper
7.172 S. Varatynov Defender
6.454 Nathan Gassama Defender
7.923 Mingiyan Beveev Defender
6.81
25 Aleksandr Filin (C) Defender
77 E. Ćivić Defender
6.77
69I. Manelov
6.7Attacker56'
10 Ilya Petrov Midfielder
7.1815 T. Yenne Midfielder
6.2968Mikhail Ryadno
Defender56'
22 Nikolai Titkov Midfielder
6.8926Ivan Belikov
6.45Defender65'
73 Maksim Petrov Midfielder
21Eduardo Anderson
Defender89'
91 B. Gil Attacker
6.5490Chinonso Offor
6.7Attacker65'
Substitutes ▼
68Mikhail Ryadno
Defender56'
69I. Manelov
6.7Attacker56'
90Chinonso Offor
6.7Attacker65'
26Ivan Belikov
6.45Defender65'
21Eduardo Anderson
Defender89'
Bench ▼
44
Egor Lyubakov Goalkeeper
81
I. Kukushkin Goalkeeper
5
Aymane Mourid Midfielder
11
Yuriy Kovalev Midfielder
14
Stefan Kovac Midfielder
82 Artem Makarov Midfielder
Sochi Referee : Stanislav Matveev
Manager ▼
I. Osinkin Coach
Starting XI ▼
35 Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
6.283 A. Soldatenkov Defender
6.524 Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
6.29
17 Artem Makarchuk Defender
5.8927 Kirill Zaika (C) Defender
6.26
82 Sergey Volkov Defender
45François Kamano
6.64Attacker61'
7 Anton Zinkovskiy Midfielder
5.9566Aleksandr Metsiev
6.5Midfielder89'
10 Martin Kramaric Midfielder
5.7911Pavel Meleshin
6.36Attacker78'
16 Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
6.5818Artem Korneev
Midfielder88'
19 A. Kovalenko Midfielder
6.229 Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
6.958Mikhail Ignatov
6.36Midfielder78'
Substitutes ▼
45François Kamano
6.64Attacker61'
11Pavel Meleshin
6.36Attacker78'
8Mikhail Ignatov
6.36Midfielder78'
18Artem Korneev
Midfielder88'
66Aleksandr Metsiev
6.5Midfielder89'
Bench ▼
85 Daniil Silev Goalkeeper
99 Y. Dyupin Goalkeeper
14 Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder
29 Roman Ezhov Midfielder
60 M. Nosaty Midfielder
59 Ruslan Bart Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+8'
Kirill Zaika
Red card confirmed
90+5'
Kirill Zaika
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Eduardo Anderson → Maksim Petrov
9th Substitution
89'
89'
Aleksandr Metsiev → Anton Zinkovskiy
10th Substitution
88'
Artem Korneev → Maksim Mukhin
8th Substitution
Mikhail Ryadno
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
87'
Maksim Petrov
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
84'
Chinonso Offor
Penalty awarded
83'
83'
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Pavel Meleshin → Martin Kramaric
7th Substitution
78'
Mikhail Ignatov → Zakhar Fedorov
6th Substitution
Mingiyan Beveev
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Chinonso Offor → B. Gil
5th Substitution
65'
Ivan Belikov → Nikolai Titkov
4th Substitution
65'
61'
François Kamano → Sergey Volkov
3rd Substitution
Mikhail Ryadno → T. Yenne
2nd Substitution
56'
I. Manelov → E. Ćivić
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
Aleksandr Filin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
E. Ćivić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Aleksandr Filin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
Sergey Volkov
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
5'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Baltika Kaliningrad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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