AZ vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk
SHK
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
In the second leg of a two-legged knockout tie, AZ hosted Shakhtar Donetsk trailing 0-3 from the first leg in Ukraine. The match stayed level at 0-0 through a tense first half, where AZ controlled 54% possession without breaking through. The second period delivered drama with both sides netting twice for a 2-2 draw. AZ's goals offered a valiant response, but Shakhtar progressed 5-2 on aggregate, confirming their status as the stronger team. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were minimal. Pre-match market probabilities listed AZ at 36.5%, draw at 27.3%, and Shakhtar at 36.2%, yet the outcome marked a significant 72.7% deviation favoring Shakhtar. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 72.7% structural deviation favoring Shakhtar Donetsk.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
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xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing xG data.
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Market alignment: Market alignment was not observed in the final outcome.
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xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without available data.
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Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments impacted proceedings.
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Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to match flow.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
Sven Jablonski
Other match officials
E. Beitinger
1st Assistant
L. Koslowski
2nd Assistant
H. Osmers
4th Official
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
AZ
Shakhtar Donetsk
Movement
Changes since opening
AZ
Shakhtar Donetsk
Team Power Ranking
i
30.75
38.73
AZ
Shakhtar Donetsk
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
AZ
Shakhtar Donetsk
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
AZ
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SHK had peak pressure around 22'.
- SHK started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:00:50+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


AZ
vs
Go Ahead Eagles
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Thu, 23 Apr - 4:45 PM
Venue: De Adelaarshorst


Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Mon, 20 Apr - 3:00 PM
Venue: Arena L'viv
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Events
CONCLUSION
AZ vs Shakhtar Donetsk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary