AZ vs SC Heerenveen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen
HEE
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between AZ and SC Heerenveen is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. AZ claimed a narrow victory despite an unusual scoring pattern that saw them lead 2-0 at halftime before the final margin tightened. Pre-match expectations positioned AZ as clear favorites with a 56.2 percent implied likelihood of success. The result delivered a significant deviation in favor of AZ, exceeding forecasts and confirming their status as the stronger team. Possession was tilted in their direction at 58 percent to 42 percent, though expected goals data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, producing positive output for the hosts and negative returns for the visitors. The outcome aligned with the pre-match projection and showed no inconsistency on available metrics. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the flow, allowing AZ to convert their territorial edge into a deserved three points.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: AZ showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
M. Nagtegaal
Other match officials
R. de Nas
1st Assistant
Y. Weterings
2nd Assistant
J. Kuipers
4th Official
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
AZ
SC Heerenveen
Movement
Changes since opening
AZ
SC Heerenveen
Team Power Ranking
i
33.93
26.67
AZ
SC Heerenveen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
AZ
SC Heerenveen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
AZ
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- AZ had peak pressure around 10'.
- AZ started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:07:17+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


AZ
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Thu, 16 Apr - 4:45 PM
Venue: AFAS Stadion


SC Heerenveen
vs
Fortuna Sittard
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 4:45 PM
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
AZ vs SC Heerenveen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Author
Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.

Match Commentary