AZ vs NAC Breda Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
AFAS Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
AZ AZ
Versus
NAC Breda NAC
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

AZ host NAC Breda at AFAS Stadion in an Eredivisie regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side sit comfortably in 6th place, wielding a substantial power score of 75.73 against the visitors' 56.21, yielding a clear 19.5-point edge that marks AZ as the stronger outfit. Form scores further tilt the scales, with AZ's 23.89 eclipsing NAC's modest 13, signaling better recent rhythm despite limited outing details. NAC Breda, mired in 17th, face an uphill battle away from home against a team primed to leverage structural superiority. Midfield control and clinical finishing will prove pivotal, as AZ seek to solidify their top-half standing while NAC hunt for vital points in the relegation scrap. Projections underscore the hosts' dominance in this mismatch.

TL;DR

  • Structural: AZ holds 6th place and a 19.5-point power advantage over 17th-placed NAC Breda.
  • Form: AZ boasts a form score of 23.89, surpassing NAC Breda's 13.
  • Squad: AZ's squad power rates at 75.73, well ahead of NAC Breda's 56.21.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains limited for both teams.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable due to lack of xG data.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for analysis.
  • Market: AZ 68.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 18.7% (Δ+0%) | NAC Breda 12.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
AZ L. Echteld
L. Echteld
VS
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.76
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
FC Twente Rank: 76 D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 62 W
FC Groningen Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 71 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 L
Ajax Rank: 75 L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 62 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 D
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 5 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AZ
68.72%
Draw
18.65%
Away NAC Breda
12.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.73
56.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AZ
NAC Breda
Power Score
75.73
56.21
League Position
6
17
Global Rank
105
608

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AZ — Opponent-weighted form score
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AZ NAC Breda

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AZ AZ Home
27 matches
NAC Breda NAC Away
Match Record
15
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
15
Goals
52
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
52
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:02:55+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
R. Owusu-Oduro
1 R. Owusu-Oduro
E. Dijkstra
22 E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
3 W. Goes
A. Penetra Correia
5 A. Penetra Correia
M. De Wit
34 M. De Wit
P. Koopmeiners
6 P. Koopmeiners
J. Clasie
8 J. Clasie
I. Jensen
17 I. Jensen
S. Mijnans
10 S. Mijnans
R. Daal
27 R. Daal
T. Parrott
9 T. Parrott
Pitch
D. Bielica
99 D. Bielica
B. Kemper
4 B. Kemper
R. Hillen
22 R. Hillen
E. Mahmutovic
15 E. Mahmutovic
D. Odoi
3 D. Odoi
M. Balard
16 M. Balard
L. Holtby
90 L. Holtby
K. Sowah
14 K. Sowah
C. Valerius
25 C. Valerius
M. Soumano
9 M. Soumano
André Ayew Pelé
24 André Ayew Pelé

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
AFAS Stadion
Capacity :
19500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Edwin van de Graaf
Mario Diks
Joost van Zuilen
Steve Janssen

Expected Lineup

Referee : Edwin van de Graaf

Starting XI ▼

1
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro Goalkeeper
6.79
9
Troy Parrott
Troy Parrott Centre Forward
7.16
17
Isak Jensen
Isak Jensen Right Wing
6.9
10
Sven Mijnans
Sven Mijnans Attacking Midfield
7.21
3
Wouter Goes
Wouter Goes Right Back
6.86
5
Alexandre Penetra
Alexandre Penetra Left Back
6.93
6
Peer Koopmeiners
Peer Koopmeiners Defensive Midfield
6.94
8
Jordy Clasie
Jordy Clasie Defensive Midfield
6.98
22
Elijah Dijkstra
Elijah Dijkstra Right Back
6.61
27
Ro-Zangelo Daal
Ro-Zangelo Daal Left Wing
6.84
34
Mees de Wit
Mees de Wit Left Back
6.84
Referee : Edwin van de Graaf

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
6.92
9
Moussa Soumano
Moussa Soumano Attacker
6.78
24
André Ayew
André Ayew Attacker
6.67
22
Rio Hillen
Rio Hillen Left Back
6.8
3
Denis Odoi
Denis Odoi Right Back
6.69
16
Max Balard
Max Balard Defensive Midfield
6.71
4
Boy Kemper
Boy Kemper Left Back
6.95
90
Lewis Holtby
Lewis Holtby Central Midfield
6.83
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Central Midfield
6.73
15
Enes Mahmutovic
Enes Mahmutovic Right Back
6.63
25
Cherrion Valerius
Cherrion Valerius Central Midfield
6.63

CONCLUSION

AZ enter as clear favorites, armed with superior power, form, and league standing to overpower NAC Breda at home. The 19.5-point gulf suggests a routine win, though NAC's desperation could spark resilience. Watch for AZ's attacking fluency to dismantle a fragile defense, potentially yielding a comfortable margin. Home advantage at AFAS Stadion amplifies the hosts' edge in this Eredivisie tilt, where quality should prevail over struggle.

AZ vs NAC Breda preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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