AZ vs NAC Breda Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
AFAS Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
AZ AZ
3 – 3
NAC Breda NAC
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Mexx Meerdink - 90'
Mateo Chávez - 12'
Sven Mijnans - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Juho Talvitie - 89'
Moussa Soumano - 71', 61'

CONTEXT

AZ hosted NAC Breda in a match that concluded with a 3-3 draw. AZ took a commanding 2-0 lead at halftime through effective attacking play and controlled 55 percent of possession overall. Despite the stronger pre-match profile of AZ, NAC Breda produced a higher expected goals total of 2.01 against AZ's 1.46, resulting in an xG differential of minus 0.55. The visitors mounted a strong second-half response to erase the deficit and secure the point. No red cards were issued to either side, allowing both teams to maintain full complements throughout the contest. The result reflected a moderate structural deviation for AZ at 13.9 percent while remaining aligned with broader market indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AZ recorded a moderate deviation of 13.9 percent from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The 3-3 outcome proved inconsistent with the underlying expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with prevailing market expectations.
  • xG expectations: NAC Breda posted a higher xG total of 2.01 compared to AZ's 1.46.
  • Event impact: No major events disrupted the flow beyond standard match incidents.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred, producing no structural distortion for either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. van de Graaf

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Diks

1st Assistant

Netherlands

J. van Zuilen

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

S. Janssen

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
AZ L. Echteld
L. Echteld
VS
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.76
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
FC Twente Rank: 76 D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
FC Groningen Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 71 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 L
Ajax Rank: 75 L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 64 D
PEC Zwolle Rank: 62 L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 5 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AZ
9.39%
Draw
86.14%
Away NAC Breda
4.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
AZ
-0.52%
Draw
+0.54%
NAC Breda
-0.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.06
56.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AZ
NAC Breda
Power Score
75.06
56.44
League Position
7
17
Global Rank
107
596

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AZ — Opponent-weighted form score
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AZ NAC Breda

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AZ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

NAC Breda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AZ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NAC Breda
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.55
42.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.67
34.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AZ -0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
NAC Breda +0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AZ
NAC Breda
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AZ
vs
NAC Breda
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AZ NAC Breda
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AZ NAC Breda
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
AZ
NAC Breda
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AZ
vs
NAC Breda
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AZ NAC Breda
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AZ 0.27
NAC Breda 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AZ NAC Breda
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AZ 0.07
NAC Breda 0.05
AZ
NAC Breda
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AZ had peak pressure around 14'.
  • AZ started the game with stronger pressure.
AZ Pressure NAC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AZ reached the top pressure at 14' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AZ AZ Home
27 matches
NAC Breda NAC Away
Match Record
15
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
15
Goals
52
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
52
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:59:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Owusu-Oduro
Netherlands
1 R. Owusu-Oduro
E. Dijkstra
Netherlands
22 E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
Netherlands
3 W. Goes
A. Penetra Correia
Portugal
5 A. Penetra Correia
M. Chávez García
Substitution
Mexico
15 M. Chávez García
J. Clasie
Substitution
Netherlands
8 (C) J. Clasie
P. Koopmeiners
Netherlands
6 P. Koopmeiners
I. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
17 I. Jensen
S. Mijnans
Netherlands
10 S. Mijnans
R. Daal
Substitution
Netherlands
27 R. Daal
T. Parrott
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
9 T. Parrott
Pitch
D. Bielica
Poland
99 D. Bielica
R. Hillen
Netherlands
22 R. Hillen
F. Oldrup Jensen
Norway
20 F. Oldrup Jensen
E. Mahmutovic
Substitution
Luxembourg
15 E. Mahmutovic
C. Valerius
25 C. Valerius
K. Sowah
Substitution
Ghana
14 K. Sowah
C. Leemans
Substitution
Netherlands
8 (C) C. Leemans
M. Balard
Australia
16 M. Balard
B. Ghalidi
Substitution
Belgium
55 B. Ghalidi
M. Soumano
France
9 M. Soumano
P. Reulen
Substitution
Netherlands
26 P. Reulen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
AFAS Stadion
Capacity :
19500
Attendance :
18460
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Edwin van de Graaf
Mario Diks
Joost van Zuilen
Steve Janssen

Statistics

Possession
AZ
52%
NAC
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 5
12 Shots 8
60 Dangerous attacks 44
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 6
6 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 2
24 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
21 Dribble Attempts 19
11 Successful Headers 9
22 Throwins 11
5 Successful Dribbles 10
7 Goal Kicks 4
3 Assists 3
50 Ball Safe 48
12 Goal Attempts 15
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

86 Attacks 92
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

430 Passes 355
85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
53 Long Passes 50
367 Successful Passes 300
28 Successful Long Passes 27
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
13 Key Passes 14

Defensive

40 Duels Won 48
18 Tackles 19
2 Interceptions 9
7 Saves 7

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 6
24 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

11 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Edwin van de Graaf

Starting XI ▼

1
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro Goalkeeper
7.35
3
Wouter Goes
Wouter Goes Defender
6.57
5
Alexandre Penetra
Alexandre Penetra Defender
6.99
15
Mateo Chávez
Mateo Chávez Defender
7.26
30
Denso Kasius
Denso Kasius
Defender57'
5.95
22
Elijah Dijkstra
Elijah Dijkstra Defender
6.8
6
Peer Koopmeiners
Peer Koopmeiners Midfielder
6.42
8
Jordy Clasie
Jordy Clasie (C) Midfielder
6.88
20
Kasper Boogaard
Kasper Boogaard
Midfielder70'
6.07
10
Sven Mijnans
Sven Mijnans Midfielder
8.79
17
Isak Jensen
Isak Jensen Midfielder
6.52
7
Weslley Patati
Weslley Patati
Attacker57'
7.03
27
Ro-Zangelo Daal
Ro-Zangelo Daal Midfielder
6.66
24
Ayoub Oufkir
Ayoub Oufkir
Attacker70'
6.43
9
Troy Parrott
Troy Parrott Attacker
7.14
35
Mexx Meerdink
Mexx Meerdink
Attacker37'
7.3
Referee : Edwin van de Graaf

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
7.56
15
Enes Mahmutovic
Enes Mahmutovic Defender
6.05
32
Juho Talvitie
Juho Talvitie
Attacker55'
7.84
20
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen Defender
7.01
22
Rio Hillen
Rio Hillen Defender
6.87
25
Cherrion Valerius
Cherrion Valerius Defender
7.68
8
Clint Leemans
Clint Leemans (C) Midfielder
7.23
24
André Ayew
André Ayew
Attacker68'
6.67
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Midfielder
6.34
21
Jayden Candelaria
Jayden Candelaria
Defender54'
6.61
16
Max Balard
Max Balard Midfielder
6.9
55
Brahim Ghalidi
Brahim Ghalidi Midfielder
6.84
90
Lewis Holtby
Lewis Holtby
Midfielder68'
6.48
9
Moussa Soumano
Moussa Soumano Attacker
2
8.45
26
Pepijn Reulen
Pepijn Reulen Attacker
6.74
7
Charles-Andreas Brym
Charles-Andreas Brym
Attacker55'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mexx Meerdink
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90'
89'
Event
Juho Talvitie
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Mexx Meerdink
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
85'
71'
Event
Moussa Soumano
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Kasper Boogaard → Jordy Clasie
9th Substitution
70'
Event
Ayoub Oufkir → Ro-Zangelo Daal
10th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
André Ayew → Clint Leemans
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Lewis Holtby → Brahim Ghalidi
8th Substitution
61'
Event
Moussa Soumano
Header / 3rd Goal
59'
Event
Rio Hillen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Weslley Patati → Isak Jensen
6th Substitution
57'
Event
Denso Kasius → Mateo Chávez
5th Substitution
57'
55'
Event
Juho Talvitie → Enes Mahmutovic
4th Substitution
55'
Event
Charles-Andreas Brym → Pepijn Reulen
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Jayden Candelaria → Kamal Sowah
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mexx Meerdink → Troy Parrott
1st Substitution
37'
Event
Mateo Chávez
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Sven Mijnans
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Candelaria takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexx Meerdink scores, making it 3-3.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mexx Meerdink takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mexx Meerdink! He scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Alexandre Penetra attempts a header but misses the target.
89
Attempt Attempt
Juho Talvitie scores with a left-footed shot.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mexx Meerdink.
84
Attempt Attempt
Sven Mijnans takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ayoub Oufkir takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Andre Ayew takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Soumano takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
70
Update Update
Kasper Boogaard replaces Jordy Clasie.
70
Update Update
Ayoub Oufkir is on, and Ro-Zangelo Daal is off.
68
Update Update
Lewis Holtby replaces Brahim Ghalidi.
68
Update Update
Andre Ayew is on, and Clint Franciscus Henricus Leemans is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Rio Hillen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Moussa Soumano scores, making it 2-1.
61
Update Update
Moussa Soumano scores with a header.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rio Hillen receives a yellow card.
59
Attempt Attempt
Peer Koopmeiners takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Patati Weslley's left-footed shot is saved.
57
Update Update
Weslley comes on for Isak Jensen.
57
Update Update
Denso Kasius is on, and Mateo Chavez Garcia is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jordy Clasie takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
55
Substitution Substitution
Charles Andreas Brym is substituted for Pepijn Reulen.
55
Update Update
Juho Talvitie replaces Enes Mahmutovic.
54
Update Update
Jayden Candelaria replaces Kamal Sowah.
52
Attempt Attempt
Clint Franciscus Henricus Leemans takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Soumano takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mexx Meerdink has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sven Mijnans has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Update Update
Mexx Meerdink comes on for Troy Parrott.
34
Attempt Attempt
Clint Franciscus Henricus Leemans takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Dijkstra's header is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Kamal Sowah's left-footed shot is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Ro-Zangelo Daal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Pepijn Reulen's header is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Soumano takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Enes Mahmutovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Clint Franciscus Henricus Leemans takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Goes takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Moussa Soumano takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Sven Mijnans takes a header, but it's saved.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mateo Chavez Garcia scores, making it 2-0.
12
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Chavez Garcia takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
11
Attempt Attempt
Clint Franciscus Henricus Leemans takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Clint Franciscus Henricus Leemans takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sven Mijnans scores to make it 1-0.
8
Attempt Attempt
Sven Mijnans scores with a left-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

The 3-3 draw highlighted NAC Breda's resilience after trailing 2-0 at the interval. Although AZ held more possession and started strongly, the visitors' superior xG output underscored their threat on the counter. Both teams traded goals in an open second half that produced six in total. The absence of dismissals kept the contest balanced and allowed tactical adjustments without numerical disadvantage. AZ's moderate deviation did not prevent a share of the points, while the result stayed consistent with market signals. This performance suggests NAC Breda can compete effectively away from home when capitalizing on second-half opportunities. Overall the match delivered an entertaining spectacle with attacking quality from both sides.

AZ vs NAC Breda preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.