AVS vs Porto Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves Sun, 10 May - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
AVS AFS
3 Winner 1
Porto FCP
Full Time Sun, 10 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos - 80'
Roni - 58', 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Deniz Gül - 53'
|
Second yellow card Dominik Prpic 90+2'

CONTEXT

AVS pulled off a remarkable 3-1 victory over Porto at home, defying pre-match expectations where Porto was considered the stronger team. Despite controlling just 31% possession compared to Porto's 69%, AVS struck first at halftime with a 1-0 lead and added two more goals in the second half. Porto managed a single response but were hampered by a red card, which altered the game's flow. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation of 90.8% in favor of AVS, far from the anticipated dominance by the visitors. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with projections, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card introduced distortion, particularly in the second half, enabling AVS to exploit numerical superiority and secure the win against the run of play in possession terms.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AVS recorded a significant 90.8% deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Porto's red card created notable event impact on proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Fernandes Macedo

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Batista Carvalho

2nd Assistant

Portugal

A. Sousa

1st Assistant

Portugal

V. Oliveira Lopes

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.62
Yellow cards / match 3.96
Red cards / match 0.11
Penalties / match 0.34
AVS J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques
J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques
VS
Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.57
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nacional Rank: 65 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Rio Ave Rank: 64 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 D
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 L
Tondela Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 W
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AVS
9.16%
Draw
16.32%
Away Porto
74.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
AVS
-88.14%
Draw
+13.95%
Porto
+74.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.75
87.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AVS
Porto
Power Score
57.75
87.38
League Position
18
1
Global Rank
562
23

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AVS — Opponent-weighted form score
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AVS Porto

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AVS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Porto

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AVS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Porto
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AVS Porto
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AVS Porto
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AVS
Porto
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AVS
vs
Porto
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AVS Porto
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AVS 0.00
Porto 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AVS Porto
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AVS 0.00
Porto 0.00
AVS
Porto
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCP had peak pressure around 55'.
  • FCP started the game with stronger pressure.
AFS Pressure FCP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCP reached the top pressure at 55' (89.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AVS AFS Home
3 matches
Porto FCP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
0
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T16:30:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Vasconcelos Ramos
Brazil
1 A. Vasconcelos Ramos
M. Cardoso Francisco
Substitution
Brazil
97 M. Cardoso Francisco
C. Castro
Colombia
42 C. Castro
P. Leal Sousa Lima
Brazil
3 P. Leal Sousa Lima
L. Rivas
Paraguay
12 L. Rivas
R. Medeiros de Moura
Brazil
70 R. Medeiros de Moura
G. Mendonça
Substitution
Portugal
23 G. Mendonça
P. Lima Barros
Brazil
8 P. Lima Barros
B. Akinsola
Nigeria
11 B. Akinsola
D. Duarte Garcete
Paraguay
20 D. Duarte Garcete
G. Neiva Silva
Substitution
Brazil
21 G. Neiva Silva
Pitch
C. Morais Ramos
Portugal
14 C. Morais Ramos
F. Moura
Portugal
74 F. Moura
D. Prpić
Croatia
21 D. Prpić
T. da Silva
Brazil
3 T. da Silva
A. Costa
Portugal
20 A. Costa
S. Fofana
Substitution
Ivory Coast
42 S. Fofana
A. Varela
Substitution
Argentina
22 A. Varela
B. Sainz Eguskiza
Substitution
Spain
17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
R. Mora Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
86 R. Mora Carvalho
E. Aquino Cossa
Substitution
Brazil
11 E. Aquino Cossa
D. Gül
Sweden
27 D. Gül

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves
Capacity :
8560
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Renato Filipe Batista Carvalho
Carlos André Fernandes Macedo
Andreia Sousa
Vitor Miguel Oliveira Lopes

Statistics

Possession
AFS
36%
FCP
64%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 5
2 Shots 6
26 Dangerous attacks 96
31 Possession 69
3 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
18 Successful Headers 18
11 Goal Kicks 5
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
18 Throwins 24
8 Dribble Attempts 24
6 Successful Dribbles 12
3 Goal Attempts 8
56 Ball Safe 55
2 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 4
59 Attacks 130
1 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

7 Key Passes 15
68 Successful Passes Percentage 85
252 Passes 550
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
59 Long Passes 32
15 Successful Long Passes 16
171 Successful Passes 467

Defensive

4 Saves 2
10 Interceptions 7
21 Tackles 8
52 Duels Won 43

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 25
5 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

7 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Starting XI ▼

1
Adriel
Adriel Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor Defender
6.52
12
Leonardo Rivas
Leonardo Rivas Defender
6.63
42
Cristian David Castro Devenish
Cristian David Castro Devenish Defender
6.54
97
Mateus Pivô
Mateus Pivô Defender
6.55
19
Tiago Galletto López
Tiago Galletto López
Midfielder49'
6.53
8
Pedro Lima Barros
Pedro Lima Barros Midfielder
6.79
23
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça Midfielder
6.72
33
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos
Defender76'
6.84
70
Roni
Roni Midfielder
2
6.79
11
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola Attacker
6.61
20
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete Attacker
6.68
21
Guilherme Neiva Silva
Guilherme Neiva Silva Attacker
6.64
7
Tomané
Tomané
Attacker68'
6.88
Referee : Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Starting XI ▼

14
Cláudio Ramos
Cláudio Ramos Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva Defender
6.85
20
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa Defender
7.03
21
Dominik Prpic
Dominik Prpic Defender
6.54
74
Francisco Moura
Francisco Moura Defender
6.74
11
Pepê
Pepê Midfielder
6.95
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski
Attacker68'
6.96
17
Borja Sainz
Borja Sainz Midfielder
6.85
7
William Gomes
William Gomes
Attacker59'
6.85
22
Alan Varela
Alan Varela Midfielder
6.97
58
Tiago Silva
Tiago Silva
Midfielder68'
42
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana Midfielder
6.84
8
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt
Midfielder59'
7.02
86
Rodrigo Mora
Rodrigo Mora Midfielder
6.83
10
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
Midfielder81'
7.03
27
Deniz Gül
Deniz Gül Attacker
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Dominik Prpic
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Pedro Lima Barros
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
81'
Event
Gabri Veiga → Rodrigo Mora
8th Substitution
Event
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos
Header / 4th Goal
80'
Event
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos → Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
William Gomes
Goal ruled out
Event
Tomané → Guilherme Neiva Silva
6th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Tiago Silva → Alan Varela
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Oskar Pietuszewski → Pepê
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Dominik Prpic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Roni
1st Yellowcard
59'
59'
Event
Victor Froholdt → Seko Fofana
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
William Gomes → Borja Sainz
3rd Substitution
Event
Roni
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
53'
Event
Deniz Gül
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Tiago Galletto López → Mateus Pivô
1st Substitution
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Roni
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Dominik Prpic.
87
Attempt Attempt
William Gomes takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Emiliano da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veiga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Pietuszewski's right-footed shot is blocked.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Pedro Lima.
82
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Costa's right-footed shot is blocked.
81
Update Update
Gabriel Veiga comes on for Rodrigo Mora.
80
Attempt Attempt
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
77
Attempt Attempt
Diego Duarte's header is saved.
77
Update Update
Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos replaces Gustavo Mendonca.
76
Update Update
The VAR decision has disallowed the goal due to offside.
68
Update Update
Antonio Manuel Fernandes Mendes and Tomane are on, while Guilherme Neiva is off.
68
Update Update
Tiago Silva comes on for Alan Varela.
68
Update Update
Oskar Pietuszewski is on, and Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa is off.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Costa attempts a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Costa's header is saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Denis Gul's header is saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora's header is saved.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Dominik Prpic.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roni receives a yellow card.
59
Update Update
Victor Froholdt replaces Seko Fofana.
59
Substitution Substitution
William Gomes is substituted for Borja Sainz Eguskiza.
53
Attempt Attempt
Denis Gul takes a shot and scores!
51
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Update Update
Tiago Galletto comes on for Mateus Cardoso Francisco.
45
Attempt Attempt
Borja Sainz Eguskiza takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Prpic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Seko Fofana's right-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Seko Fofana takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Roni takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Diego Duarte attempts a header but misses the shot.
20
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Denis Gul takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Seko Fofana takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

AVS's 3-1 triumph over Porto underscores the unpredictability of football, where underdogs can thrive through clinical finishing and opportunistic play. With Porto reduced to ten men after the red card, AVS capitalized effectively despite minimal possession, extending their halftime 1-0 advantage. This significant deviation highlights how key events like dismissals can reshape matches, overriding favoritism and possession stats. For AVS, the result boosts morale and standings; for Porto, it prompts reflection on discipline and adaptability. Overall, the game exemplifies red card distortion's profound effect, turning expected superiority into an upset.

AVS vs Porto preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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