Avellino vs Modena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Avellino AVE
1 Winner 0
Modena MOD
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Fabrizio Bagheria - 44' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Avellino clinched a 1-0 victory over Modena in a low-scoring encounter, with the sole goal arriving in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Holding 58% possession, the home side dictated the tempo despite Modena entering as the stronger team. Avellino's defense proved impenetrable, restricting Modena's opportunities throughout. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were absent, maintaining the status quo. The result reflected minimal structural deviation of 3.9% favoring Avellino, aligning with market expectations. Efficiency remained in line with assessments, underscoring a tactical battle where possession translated into control without excessive risk. This outcome defied Modena's superior rating, highlighting Avellino's resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed minimal structural deviation of 3.9% towards Avellino.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true for the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable with null data provided.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Di Marco

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Votta

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Pressato

2nd Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 54 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Mantova Rank: 53 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Monza Rank: 66 L
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Südtirol Rank: 52 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Avellino
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away Modena
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.76
56.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Avellino
Modena
Power Score
51.76
56.92
League Position
8
6
Global Rank
678
585

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.78
11.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.79
35.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Avellino +2.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Modena -2.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Modena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Avellino Modena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Avellino Modena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Modena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Avellino
vs
Modena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Avellino Modena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Avellino 0.23
Modena 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Avellino Modena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Avellino 0.00
Modena 0.01
Avellino
Modena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AVE had peak pressure around 92'.
  • MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
AVE Pressure MOD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AVE reached the top pressure at 92' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home
13 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
20
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:01:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Iannarilli
Italy
1 A. Iannarilli
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
P. Enrici
Italy
56 P. Enrici
F. Missori
Italy
2 F. Missori
D. Sounas
Greece
24 D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
R. Insigne
Substitution
Italy
94 R. Insigne
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno
R. Russo
Substitution
Italy
10 R. Russo
Pitch
F. Bagheria
Italy
78 F. Bagheria
C. Cauz
Substitution
Italy
33 C. Cauz
A. Dellavalle
Italy
25 A. Dellavalle
D. Adorni
Italy
28 D. Adorni
M. Cotali
Italy
29 M. Cotali
N. Pyyhtiä
Substitution
Finland
18 N. Pyyhtiä
P. Arnaboldi
80 P. Arnaboldi
S. Wiafe
Substitution
71 S. Wiafe
A. Imputato
Italy
90 A. Imputato
E. Gliozzi
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Gliozzi
P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
11 P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Capacity :
26542
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Davide Di Marco
Federico Votta
Matteo Pressato

Statistics

Possession
AVE
58%
MOD
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 2
75 Dangerous attacks 19
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 0
15 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
18 Dribble Attempts 10
19 Throwins 15
5 Goal Kicks 9
7 Successful Dribbles 4
62 Ball Safe 74
13 Goal Attempts 3
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

117 Attacks 76
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 80
448 Successful Passes 304
520 Passes 382
40 Successful Long Passes 28
68 Long Passes 69
12 Key Passes 3
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

16 Tackles 18
10 Interceptions 1
58 Duels Won 51
1 Saves 8

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 8
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
16 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori Defender
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Defender
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
16
Justin Kumi
Justin Kumi
Midfielder90+1'
94
Roberto Insigne
Roberto Insigne Midfielder
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo
Midfielder76'
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci
Attacker88'
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
18
Lorenzo Sgarbi
Lorenzo Sgarbi
Attacker87'
Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI ▼

78
Fabrizio Bagheria
Fabrizio Bagheria Goalkeeper
25
Alessandro Dellavalle
Alessandro Dellavalle Defender
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Defender
33
Cristian Căuz
Cristian Căuz Defender
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku
Defender62'
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä Midfielder
5
Alessandro Sersanti
Alessandro Sersanti
Midfielder46'
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali Midfielder
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe Midfielder
6
Tito Maria Fabbri
Tito Maria Fabbri
Midfielder73'
80
Pietro Arnaboldi
Pietro Arnaboldi Midfielder
90
Antonio Imputato
Antonio Imputato Midfielder
9
Ettore Gliozzi
Ettore Gliozzi Attacker
92
Grégoire Defrel
Grégoire Defrel
Attacker46'
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes Attacker
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca
Attacker79'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Justin Kumi → Michele Besaggio
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Tommaso Biasci → Cosimo Patierno
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Lorenzo Sgarbi → Raffaele Russo
7th Substitution
87'
79'
Event
Manuel De Luca → Pedro Mendes
6th Substitution
Event
Martin Palumbo → Roberto Insigne
5th Substitution
76'
73'
Event
Tito Maria Fabbri → Samuel Wiafe
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Gady Beyuku → Cristian Căuz
3rd Substitution
Event
Armando Izzo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Grégoire Defrel → Ettore Gliozzi
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Alessandro Sersanti → Niklas Pyyhtiä
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Fabrizio Bagheria
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
44'
13'
Event
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Martin Palumbo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Biasci takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Justin Kumi is on, and Michele Besaggio is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Biasci takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Martin Palumbo with his left foot is saved.
88
Update Update
Tommaso Biasci comes on for Cosimo Patierno.
88
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Enrici attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Update Update
Lorenzo Sgarbi replaces Raffaele Russo.
86
Attempt Attempt
Armando Izzo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Michele Besaggio takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Armando Izzo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Martin Palumbo's header is saved.
79
Update Update
Manuel De Luca is on, and Pedro Manuel Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes is off.
76
Update Update
Martin Palumbo replaces Roberto Insigne.
73
Update Update
Tito Maria Fabbri comes on for Samuel Wiafe.
72
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Manuel Lobo Peixoto Mendes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Missori takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Enrici takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Gady Beyuku is on, Cristian Cauz is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Cosimo Patierno takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Sounas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Sounas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Gregoire Defrel comes on for Ettore Gliozzi.
46
Update Update
Alessandro Sersanti comes on for Niklas Pyyhtia.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal! Fabrizio Bagheria scores, making it 1-0.
42
Attempt Attempt
Cosimo Patierno's left-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ettore Gliozzi's header is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Raffaele Russo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Roberto Insigne takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ettore Gliozzi attempts a header but misses the shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Manuel Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes attempts a header but misses the shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Sounas takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Avellino's 1-0 triumph over Modena demonstrated effective game management, leveraging 58% possession and a first-half goal into a clean-sheet win. As underdogs against the stronger-rated visitors, they minimized threats while preserving their lead post-halftime. Minimal deviation and aligned market signals indicate the result fit within structural norms, with efficiency holding steady. Lacking xG data limits chance evaluation, but the narrow scoreline points to defensive solidity over attacking flair. This performance enhances Avellino's momentum, exposing Modena's conversion struggles in a possession-disadvantaged role.

Avellino vs Modena preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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