Avellino vs Catanzaro Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Sat, 11 Apr - 3:15 PM

Serie B

Avellino AVE

1 – 1

Catanzaro CAT

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 3:15 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Antony Iannarilli - 90+5'

Pietro Iemmello - 60'

Nicolò Brighenti 75'

CONTEXT

The match between Avellino and Catanzaro is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw after a goalless first half. Pre-match projections positioned Avellino as narrow favorites, with Catanzaro given only a modest chance of victory, yet the result delivered a significant deviation that particularly affected the visitors, who were regarded as the stronger team overall. The draw ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection. Catanzaro held the greater share of possession at 56 percent to Avellino’s 44 percent, though no expected goals data is available to further quantify their territorial edge. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the numerical imbalance created by Catanzaro’s red card, an event that distorted the second-half dynamics and prevented either side from securing all three points. The final score therefore reflected a hard-fought share of the spoils shaped by that decisive sending-off rather than clear dominance from either team.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

P. Tremolada

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Politi

1st Assistant

A. Bianchini

2nd Assistant

B. Spina

4th Official

D. Ballardini

A. Aquilani

1.04

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Avellino

36.6%

Draw

28.81%

Catanzaro

34.59%

Movement

Changes since opening

Avellino

+36.41%

Draw

+22.4%

Catanzaro

-58.8%

Team Power Ranking

22.7

28.67

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Avellino

Catanzaro

Power Score

22.7

28.67

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score

Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Catanzaro

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

48.41

14.91

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

14.91

48.41

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Avellino +3.19 Efficiency Index

Catanzaro -3.19 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Avellino

Catanzaro

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Catanzaro

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Avellino Catanzaro

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Avellino Catanzaro

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Avellino

Catanzaro

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Avellino

Catanzaro

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Avellino Catanzaro

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Avellino Catanzaro

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Avellino

Catanzaro

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

AVE had peak pressure around 80'.
AVE started the game with stronger pressure.

AVE Pressure CAT Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: AVE reached the top pressure at 80' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home

3 matches

Catanzaro CAT Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:09:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 A. Iannarilli

29 T. Cancellotti

44 L. Šimić

56 P. Enrici

3 M. Sala

16 J. Kumi

6 L. Palmiero

24 D. Sounas

20 M. Palumbo

14 T. Biasci

10 R. Russo

22 M. Pigliacelli

6 F. Moreira Pacheco

4 M. Antonini Lui

23 N. Brighenti

94 F. Di Francesco

10 J. Petriccione

20 S. Pontisso

27 C. Favasuli

32 F. Rispoli

14 M. Liberali

9 P. Iemmello

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Capacity :

26542

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Mattia Politi

Andrea Bianchini

Paride Tremolada

Bruno Spina

Statistics

Possession

AVE

46%

CAT

54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 2

46 Dangerous attacks 27

44 Possession 56

6 Corners 1

9 Free kicks 15

4 Yellow Cards 5

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 27

42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63

7 Goal Kicks 14

19 Throwins 12

5 Successful Dribbles 17

44 Ball Safe 66

9 Goal Attempts 6

5 Substitutions 5

1 Penalties 0

1 Assists 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 87

2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

14 Key Passes 7

36 Long Passes 41

61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

286 Successful Passes 408

22 Successful Long Passes 18

337 Passes 465

85 Successful Passes Percentage 88

Defensive

1 Saves 3

9 Interceptions 5

19 Tackles 12

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 7

12 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 0

16 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Paride Tremolada

Manager ▼

D. Ballardini Coach

Starting XI ▼

Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper

Marco Sala Defender

Tommaso Cancellotti Defender

Roberto Insigne

Attacker64'

Lorenco Simic Defender

Patrick Enrici Defender

Luca Palmiero Midfielder

Justin Kumi Midfielder

Filippo Missori

Defender46'

Martin Palumbo Midfielder

Andrea Favilli

Attacker63'

Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder

Andréa Le Borgne

Midfielder79'

Raffaele Russo Attacker

Tommaso Biasci Attacker

Cosimo Patierno

Attacker63'

Substitutes ▼

Filippo Missori

Defender46'

Andrea Favilli

Attacker63'

Cosimo Patierno

Attacker63'

Roberto Insigne

Attacker64'

Andréa Le Borgne

Midfielder79'

Bench ▼

Jacopo Sassi Goalkeeper

Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender

Marco Armellino Midfielder

Michele Besaggio Midfielder

Gennaro Tutino Attacker

Luca Pandolfi Attacker

Luca D'Andrea Attacker

Referee : Paride Tremolada