Avellino vs Bari 1908 Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Fri, 24 Apr - 7:00 PM

Serie B

Avellino AVE

Bari 1908 BAR

Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 7:00 PM

Round 36 Regular Season

Martin Palumbo - 79'

Michele Besaggio - 67'

CONTEXT

Avellino claimed a 2-0 win against Bari 1908 in a match that remained goalless at halftime with the score 0-0. The home side asserted control with 60% possession compared to Bari's 40%, gradually building pressure that culminated in two second-half goals. No red cards were issued, allowing the game to flow without major disruptions. Avellino, identified as the stronger team pre-match, delivered a performance that aligned with expectations, showing structural discipline and efficiency. The result marked a significant deviation in favor of the home team, reflecting their dominance on the pitch. Without available xG data, the focus remains on observable metrics like possession and clean execution in attack. Bari struggled to convert limited opportunities, unable to challenge Avellino's defensive solidity.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Avellino's win showed a 49.9% significant structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG data was unavailable for alignment analysis.
Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
Event impact: No major events like second-half adjustments impacted the flow.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the match dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

G. Manganiello

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ricci

1st Assistant

M. Emmanuele

2nd Assistant

G. Collu

4th Official

D. Ballardini

M. Longo

1.15

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.04

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 4 - 10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Avellino

50.12%

Draw

27.56%

Bari 1908

22.32%

Movement

Changes since opening

Avellino

-47.77%

Draw

+25.64%

Bari 1908

+22.12%

Team Power Ranking

24.15

17.51

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Avellino

Bari 1908

Power Score

24.15

17.51

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score

Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Bari 1908

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Bari 1908

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.83

26.38

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

26.38

32.83

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Avellino +0.62 Efficiency Index

Bari 1908 -0.62 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Avellino

Bari 1908

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Bari 1908

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Avellino Bari 1908

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Avellino Bari 1908

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Avellino

Bari 1908

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Avellino

Bari 1908

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Avellino Bari 1908

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Avellino Bari 1908

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Avellino

Bari 1908

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

AVE had peak pressure around 68'.
BAR started the game with stronger pressure.

AVE Pressure BAR Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: AVE reached the top pressure at 68' (80.26).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home

19 matches

Bari 1908 BAR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-11

Goal Difference

+11

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:02:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

1 A. Iannarilli

29 T. Cancellotti

56 P. Enrici

4 A. Izzo

63 A. Fontanarosa

24 D. Sounas

6 L. Palmiero

39 M. Besaggio

20 M. Palumbo

9 C. Patierno

10 R. Russo

31 M. Cerofolini

43 D. Nikolaou

26 C. Odenthal

13 V. Mantovani

28 K. Piscopo

27 M. Braunöder

18 G. Maggiore

30 B. Manè

93 E. Dorval

17 E. Rao

11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 24, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Capacity :

26542

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Gianluca Manganiello

Marco Ricci

Marco Emmanuele

Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession

AVE

58%

BAR

42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

7 Big Chances Created 0

10 Shots 6

34 Dangerous attacks 31

60 Possession 40

8 Corners 4

13 Free kicks 13

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

8 Goal Kicks 9

12 Throwins 19

12 Dribble Attempts 15

6 Successful Dribbles 4

4 Substitutions 5

1 Assists 0

86 Ball Safe 80

13 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 0

67 Attacks 58

Possession

37 Successful Long Passes 24

413 Successful Passes 257

63 Long Passes 46

59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

84 Successful Passes Percentage 79

490 Passes 326

11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

58 Duels Won 56

6 Interceptions 3

17 Tackles 9

0 Saves 5

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 20

3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Manager ▼

D. Ballardini Coach

Starting XI ▼

Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper

6.75

Armando Izzo Defender

7.17

Tommaso Cancellotti Defender

6.68

Patrick Enrici Defender

6.67

Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender

6.75

Luca Palmiero Midfielder

6.81

Martin Palumbo Midfielder

6.84

Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder

6.96

Andréa Le Borgne

Midfielder90+4'

6.38

Michele Besaggio Midfielder

6.77

Filippo Missori

Defender86'

6.81

Cosimo Patierno Attacker

6.61

Andrea Favilli

Attacker71'

6.64

Raffaele Russo Attacker

6.8

Gennaro Tutino

Attacker86'

6.56

Substitutes ▼

Andrea Favilli

Attacker71'

6.64

Gennaro Tutino

Attacker86'

6.56

Filippo Missori

Defender86'

6.81

Andréa Le Borgne

Midfielder90+4'

6.38

Bench ▼

Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper

6.8

Marco Sala Defender

6.77

Justin Kumi Midfielder

6.62

Marco Armellino Midfielder

6.59

Luca Pandolfi Attacker

6.51

Luca D'Andrea Attacker

6.58

Tommaso Biasci Attacker

6.94

Roberto Insigne Attacker

6.83

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello