Auxerre vs Strasbourg Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps Sun, 8 Mar - 12:12 AM
Ligue 1
Auxerre AUX
0 – 0
Strasbourg STR
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:12 AM

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Auxerre 0–0 Strasbourg. The match ended in a draw. Strasbourg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 28%–72%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Strasbourg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Pignard

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Drouet

1st Assistant

F. Boudikian

2nd Assistant

A. Baert

4th Official

Auxerre C. Pélissier
C. Pélissier
VS
Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
0.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: D
Rennes Rank: L
Metz Rank: W
Paris Rank: D
Toulouse Rank: D
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: D
Le Havre Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
LOSC Lille Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Nice Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Auxerre
27.68%
Draw
28.95%
Away Strasbourg
43.37%

Movement

Changes since opening
Auxerre
+2.1%
Draw
+0.76%
Strasbourg
-2.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
25.33
48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Auxerre
Strasbourg
Power Score
25.33
48
League Position
16
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Auxerre — Opponent-weighted form score
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Auxerre Strasbourg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Auxerre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Auxerre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Strasbourg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.82
19.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.79
39.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Auxerre +1.96 Efficiency Index
vs
Strasbourg -1.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Auxerre
Strasbourg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Auxerre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Strasbourg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Auxerre Strasbourg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Auxerre Strasbourg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Auxerre
Strasbourg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Auxerre AUX Home
5 matches
Strasbourg STR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
2
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:13:11+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 12:12 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Capacity :
18541
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Aurélien Drouet
François Boudikian
Jérémie Pignard
Arnaud Baert

Statistics

Possession
AUX
33%
STR
67%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 5
23 Dangerous attacks 25
28 Possession 72
5 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

41 Ball Safe 58
11 Dribble Attempts 18
8 Goal Kicks 9
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
3 Successful Dribbles 9
10 Successful Headers 8
10 Throwins 19
2 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Goal Attempts 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 117
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

6 Key Passes 9
240 Passes 673
47 Long Passes 36
17 Successful Long Passes 14
70 Successful Passes Percentage 90
169 Successful Passes 606
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

17 Interceptions 12
23 Tackles 10
5 Saves 4
46 Duels Won 35

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 17
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
78'
Event
Maxi Oyedele → Samir El Mourabet
7th Substitution
Event
Naouirou Ahamada → Josué Casimir
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Lamine Sy → Marvin Senaya
6th Substitution
77'
65'
Event
Valentín Barco → Ben Chilwell
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Sebastian Nanasi → Martial Godo
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Joaquín Panichelli → David Datro Fofana
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Andrew Omobamidele
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Christophe Pélissier
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
59'
59'
Event
Lucas Høgsberg
Penalty disallowed
Event
Marvin Senaya
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
46'
Event
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw → Gessime Yassine
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gideon Mensah
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
11'
Event
C. Pélissier
5th Yellowcard
11'
Event
Samir El Mourabet
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Fredrik Oppegård from Auxerre attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the scoreline remaining Auxerre 0, Strasbourg 0.
89
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Strasbourg after Gideon Mensah allowed the ball to go out.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joaquín Panichelli from Strasbourg fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
88
Update Update
Ismaël Doukouré from Strasbourg committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Naouirou Ahamada from Auxerre earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Strasbourg after Gideon Mensah allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
Sebastian Nanasi from Strasbourg committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Elisha Owusu from Auxerre was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
85
Update Update
Sebastian Nanasi from Strasbourg committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Elisha Owusu from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
83
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Andrew Omobamidele from Strasbourg.
83
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Naouirou Ahamada from Auxerre took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
83
Update Update
Andrew Omobamidele from Strasbourg earned a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Auxerre after Ismaël Doukouré allowed the ball to go out.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Kévin Danois, who delivered a cross.
79
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Sam Amo-Ameyaw from Strasbourg took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Valentín Barco.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Maxi Oyedele comes on to replace Samir El Mourabet.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Auxerre: Naouirou Ahamada replaces Josué Casimir.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Auxerre: Lamine Sy comes on to replace Marvin Senaya.
77
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Julio Enciso from Strasbourg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the bar and to the left following a corner kick.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Strasbourg after Gideon Mensah allowed the ball to go out of play.
74
Update Update
Valentín Barco from Strasbourg has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Strasbourg after Marvin Senaya allowed the ball to go out.
74
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Offside call against Strasbourg. Abdoul Ouattara has been flagged for being in an offside position.
70
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Valentín Barco from Strasbourg takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it is expertly stopped by Donovan Léon, the goalkeeper for Auxerre, who makes the save right in the center of the goal.
70
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Sebastian Nanasi from Strasbourg takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper Donovan Léon from Auxerre, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Valentín Barco.
68
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Julio Enciso from Strasbourg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Donovan Léon, the goalkeeper for Auxerre, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Samir El Mourabet.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Sebastian Nanasi comes on to replace Martial Godo.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Valentín Barco comes on to replace Ben Chilwell.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Joaquín Panichelli comes on to replace David Datro Fofana.
63
Update Update
VAR Review: Possible Penalty for Strasbourg.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marvin Senaya of Auxerre has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
56
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Strasbourg! Lucas Høgsberg is brought down in the box.
56
Update Update
Marvin Senaya of Auxerre has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
55
Update Update
Julio Enciso from Strasbourg earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
55
Update Update
Julio Enciso from Strasbourg was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
50
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! David Datro Fofana from Strasbourg took a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Samir El Mourabet, who delivered a cross.
49
Update Update
Kévin Danois from Auxerre commits a handball foul.
48
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Martial Godo from Strasbourg takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Abdoul Ouattara.
48
Update Update
Kévin Danois from Auxerre commits a handball.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Lucas Høgsberg allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
Kévin Danois from Auxerre committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Ben Chilwell from Strasbourg earned a free kick on the left flank.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Auxerre 0, Strasbourg 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! David Datro Fofana from Strasbourg attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it soared over the bar and to the left. The cross was delivered by Julio Enciso.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Strasbourg: Sam Amo-Ameyaw comes on to replace Gessime Yassine.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Auxerre 0, Strasbourg 0.
44
Update Update
Andrew Omobamidele from Strasbourg committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Marvin Senaya from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gideon Mensah from Auxerre has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
43
Update Update
Samir El Mourabet from Strasbourg has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
43
Update Update
Gideon Mensah commits a foul for Auxerre.
41
Update Update
Josué Casimir from Auxerre earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
41
Update Update
Ismaël Doukouré from Strasbourg committed a foul.
40
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Abdoul Ouattara from Strasbourg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from David Datro Fofana.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Ismaël Doukouré allowed the ball to go out.
37
Update Update
David Datro Fofana from Strasbourg committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre commits a handball.
35
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
35
Update Update
David Datro Fofana from Strasbourg committed a foul.
34
Corner Corner
Another offensive push unfolds. Josué Casimir from Auxerre takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Mike Penders from Strasbourg makes a save, directing the ball to the right corner. The assist came from Lassine Sinayoko.
31
Update Update
Ismaël Doukouré from Strasbourg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Danny Namaso from Auxerre committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Offside call against Auxerre. Fredrik Oppegård has been flagged for being offside.
25
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Danny Namaso from Auxerre takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box. However, Mike Penders, the goalkeeper for Strasbourg, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Lassine Sinayoko.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Danny Namaso from Auxerre took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar following a free kick.
21
Update Update
Marvin Senaya from Auxerre has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
21
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Danny Namaso from Auxerre took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Andrew Omobamidele gave away a foul.
20
Update Update
Fouled by Martial Godo from Strasbourg.
19
Update Update
Ismaël Doukouré from Strasbourg commits a handball.
16
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Josué Casimir from Auxerre takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Mike Penders of Strasbourg makes a save, diving to his left to stop the ball.
15
Update Update
Andrew Omobamidele from Strasbourg committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Danny Namaso from Auxerre earned a free kick in an offensive position.
14
Update Update
Abdoul Ouattara from Strasbourg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Julio Enciso from Strasbourg attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
14
Update Update
Elisha Owusu from Auxerre committed a foul.
12
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
12
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
11
Update Update
Samir El Mourabet from Strasbourg committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Josué Casimir from Auxerre earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
11
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Josué Casimir from Auxerre.
10
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Ben Chilwell from Strasbourg takes a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, targeting the left side, but Donovan Léon from Auxerre makes a save, pushing it into the left corner. The assist came from Martial Godo.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Høgsberg from Strasbourg.
8
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Gideon Mensah committed a foul for Auxerre.
6
Update Update
Gessime Yassine from Strasbourg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after a deflection off Andrew Omobamidele.
3
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Ben Chilwell from Strasbourg takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped by goalkeeper Donovan Léon of Auxerre, who is positioned centrally in the goal.
3
Update Update
Offside call against Strasbourg. David Datro Fofana has been flagged for being offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Strasbourg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Auxerre vs Strasbourg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ligue 1, France View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.