Auxerre vs Nice Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Auxerre AUX
2 Winner 1
Nice NCE
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Lassine Sinayoko - 70'
Sékou Mara - 27'
Goal
|
Goal
Sofiane Diop - 9'

CONTEXT

Auxerre defeated Nice 2-1 in a competitive home match that ended level at 1-1 halftime. Auxerre controlled 52% possession compared to Nice's 48%, edging out the stronger-rated visitors. The final score reflects Auxerre's ability to convert limited chances effectively, resulting in a significant 58.9% structural deviation favoring the home side. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were minimal. Pre-match evaluations listed Auxerre at 41.1% win probability, draw at 27.8%, and Nice at 31.1%, with the outcome aligning to these assessments. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations despite the upset nature against the stronger team. This result underscores Auxerre's tactical discipline and clinical finishing in key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Auxerre's 2-1 win exhibited a significant 58.9% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from available data.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Letexier

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Mugnier

1st Assistant

France

M. Rahmouni

2nd Assistant

France

G. Angoula

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Auxerre C. Pélissier
C. Pélissier
VS
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.7
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Angers SCO Rank: 68 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Nantes Rank: 67 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 D
Brest Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 82 D
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 D
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 D
Strasbourg Rank: 77 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 5 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Auxerre
41.11%
Draw
27.83%
Away Nice
31.06%

Movement

Changes since opening
Auxerre
-54.5%
Draw
+23.63%
Nice
+30.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.27
72.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Auxerre
Nice
Power Score
70.27
72.57
League Position
16
15
Global Rank
204
153

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Auxerre — Opponent-weighted form score
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Auxerre Nice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Auxerre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Auxerre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Auxerre Nice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Auxerre Nice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Auxerre
Nice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Auxerre
vs
Nice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Auxerre Nice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Auxerre 0.00
Nice 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Auxerre Nice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Auxerre 0.00
Nice 0.00
Auxerre
Nice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AUX had peak pressure around 20'.
  • NCE started the game with stronger pressure.
AUX Pressure NCE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AUX reached the top pressure at 20' (72.12).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Auxerre AUX Home
19 matches
Nice NCE Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
5
Draws
5
6
Losses
8
Goals
19
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
19
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T18:30:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
D. Léon
French Guiana
16 D. Léon
L. Sy
Substitution
France
27 L. Sy
S. Diomande
Ivory Coast
20 S. Diomande
B. Okoh
Substitution
Switzerland
24 B. Okoh
G. Mensah
Ghana
14 G. Mensah
N. Ahamada
France
8 N. Ahamada
E. Owusu
Ghana
42 E. Owusu
K. Danois
France
5 K. Danois
L. Sinayoko
Mali
10 L. Sinayoko
S. Mara
Substitution
France
9 S. Mara
D. Loader
Substitution
Cameroon
19 D. Loader
Pitch
Y. Diouf
France
80 Y. Diouf
M. Bard
Substitution
France
26 M. Bard
K. Peprah Oppong
Ghana
37 K. Peprah Oppong
A. Juma Bah
Sierra Leone
28 A. Juma Bah
A. Mendy
France
33 A. Mendy
J. Clauss
France
92 J. Clauss
S. Diop
Substitution
Morocco
10 S. Diop
S. Samed
Substitution
Ghana
99 S. Samed
H. Boudaoui
Algeria
6 H. Boudaoui
M. Sanson
Substitution
France
8 M. Sanson
M. Cho
Substitution
France
25 M. Cho

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Capacity :
18541
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
François Letexier
Cyril Mugnier
Mehdi Rahmouni
Gaël Angoula

Statistics

Possession
AUX
52%
NCE
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 2
49 Dangerous attacks 23
52 Possession 48
10 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 6
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
22 Throwins 25
3 Goal Kicks 10
12 Successful Headers 18
11 Dribble Attempts 15
71 Ball Safe 82
3 Injuries 2
9 Goal Attempts 7
1 Assists 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 107
1 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
358 Successful Passes 337
447 Passes 431
55 Long Passes 46
23 Successful Long Passes 16
8 Key Passes 7

Defensive

14 Interceptions 5
45 Duels Won 51
19 Tackles 13
2 Saves 2

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

16
Donovan Léon
Donovan Léon Goalkeeper
6.83
14
Gideon Mensah
Gideon Mensah Defender
6.68
20
Sinaly Diomandé
Sinaly Diomandé Defender
6.85
24
Bryan Okoh
Bryan Okoh Defender
7.09
92
Clément Akpa
Clément Akpa
Defender13'
6.59
27
Lamine Sy
Lamine Sy Defender
6.64
29
Marvin Senaya
Marvin Senaya
Defender71'
6.82
5
Kévin Danois
Kévin Danois Midfielder
7.09
8
Naouirou Ahamada
Naouirou Ahamada Midfielder
6.67
42
Elisha Owusu
Elisha Owusu Midfielder
6.73
9
Sékou Mara
Sékou Mara Attacker
6.81
7
Josué Casimir
Josué Casimir
Attacker86'
6.67
10
Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko Attacker
7.14
19
Danny Namaso
Danny Namaso Attacker
6.78
21
Lasso Coulibaly
Lasso Coulibaly
Midfielder86'
6.58
Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
7.02
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Defender
6.78
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi
Defender59'
6.6
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Defender
6.8
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Defender
6.69
37
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong Defender
6.79
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Defender
7.14
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Midfielder
6.76
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Midfielder
6.58
90
Kevin Carlos
Kevin Carlos
Attacker76'
6.45
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Midfielder
6.95
21
Isak Jansson
Isak Jansson
Attacker81'
6.62
99
Salis Abdul Samed
Salis Abdul Samed Midfielder
6.45
20
Tom Louchet
Tom Louchet
Midfielder59'
6.8
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho Attacker
6.79
11
Elye Wahi
Elye Wahi
Attacker76'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Josué Casimir
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Josué Casimir → Sékou Mara
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Lasso Coulibaly → Danny Namaso
9th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Isak Jansson → Sofiane Diop
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Elye Wahi → Mohamed-Ali Cho
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Kevin Carlos → Morgan Sanson
5th Substitution
Event
Marvin Senaya → Lamine Sy
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Lassine Sinayoko
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
70'
59'
Event
Tom Louchet → Salis Abdul Samed
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Ali Abdi → Melvin Bard 
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sékou Mara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
27'
Event
Clément Akpa → Bryan Okoh
1st Substitution
13'
9'
Event
Sofiane Diop
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Isak Jansson's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Josue Casimir receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sepe Elye Wahi takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
86
Update Update
Josue Casimir is on, and Sekou Mara is off.
86
Update Update
Josue Casimir is on, and Sekou Mara is off.
81
Update Update
Isak Jansson comes on for Sofiane Diop.
79
Attempt Attempt
Danny Loader takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
79
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Danois takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Sepe Elye Wahi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Update Update
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin comes on for Morgan Sanson.
76
Update Update
Sepe Elye Wahi comes on for Mohamed Ali-Cho.
74
Attempt Attempt
Danny Loader's header is saved.
71
Substitution Substitution
Marvin Senaya is substituted for Lamine Sy.
70
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
60
Update Update
Tom Louchet is on, and Salis Abdul Samed is off.
59
Update Update
Ali Abdi replaces Melvin Bard.
53
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Sy's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Sy's right-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Elisha Owusu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara scores with a right-footed shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Update Update
Clement Akpa is on, and Bryan Okoh is off.
12
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Sanson's right-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Ali-Cho takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Diop takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
8
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Mendy takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Ali-Cho takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Auxerre's 2-1 victory over stronger Nice validates their home strength, with a halftime 1-1 score giving way to second-half resolve. Slight possession dominance aided chance creation, aligning efficiency with expectations amid a significant deviation. Market probabilities correctly favored Auxerre marginally, confirming predictive accuracy. Absence of red cards preserved natural flow, highlighting merit-based outcome. This performance boosts Auxerre's standing, exposing Nice's vulnerabilities despite favoritism. Tactical execution proved decisive in a balanced encounter.

Auxerre vs Nice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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