Auxerre vs Brest Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps Sat, 21 Mar - 6:00 PM
Ligue 1
Auxerre AUX
3 Winner 0
Brest B29
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 6:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Danny Namaso - 70'
Bryan Okoh - 58', 24'
Goal
|
Donovan Léon 6' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match has concluded, with Auxerre securing a 2-0 victory over Brest after taking a 1-0 lead into halftime. Coming into the fixture, Auxerre were the slight favorites with a 41.9% implied probability of winning, compared to Brest's 27.5% chance and a 30.6% likelihood of a draw. While Brest was considered the overall stronger team, Auxerre's win represented a significant deviation of 58.1% from the remaining probability pools, though the final outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match market favorite. Brest controlled the ball for the majority of the game, holding 56% possession compared to Auxerre's 44%. However, the home side was significantly more dangerous in attack. The final outcome was completely consistent with the expected goals (xG) data, as Auxerre generated 1.52 xG to Brest's 0.94 xG. This 0.58 xG differential highlighted Auxerre's superior chance creation, and their resulting efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. A major defining factor in the match was a red card issued to Auxerre. This created a notable red card distortion that forced strict second-half defensive adjustments. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Auxerre held firm to preserve their clean sheet and claim the full-time win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Auxerre showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Auxerre C. Pélissier
C. Pélissier
VS
Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
0.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 L
Strasbourg Rank: 79 D
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Metz Rank: 63 W
Paris Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monaco Rank: 79 L
Le Havre Rank: 66 W
Metz Rank: 63 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 79 D
Lorient Rank: 74 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Auxerre
41.92%
Draw
30.6%
Away Brest
27.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.08
74.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Auxerre
Brest
Power Score
69.08
74.18
League Position
16
11
Global Rank
215
122

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Auxerre — Opponent-weighted form score
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Auxerre Brest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Auxerre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Auxerre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.84
20.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.18
27.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Auxerre +0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Brest -0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Auxerre
Brest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Auxerre
vs
Brest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Auxerre Brest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Auxerre Brest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Auxerre
Brest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Auxerre AUX Home
9 matches
Brest B29 Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
2
Goals
11
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
11
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Léon
French Guiana
16 D. Léon
L. Sy
France
27 L. Sy
S. Diomande
Ivory Coast
20 S. Diomande
B. Okoh
Switzerland
24 B. Okoh
G. Mensah
Substitution
Ghana
14 G. Mensah
R. Faivre
Substitution
France
28 R. Faivre
E. Owusu
Ghana
42 (C) E. Owusu
K. Danois
France
5 K. Danois
F. Oppegard
Substitution
Norway
22 F. Oppegard
D. Loader
Substitution
Cameroon
19 D. Loader
L. Sinayoko
Mali
10 L. Sinayoko
Pitch
G. Coudert
France
30 G. Coudert
D. Guindo
Substitution
Mali
27 D. Guindo
S. Coulibaly
Substitution
France
44 S. Coulibaly
M. Diaz
4 M. Diaz
K. Lala
France
77 K. Lala
H. Magnetti
France
8 (C) H. Magnetti
J. Chotard
Substitution
France
13 J. Chotard
E. Dina Ebimbe
Substitution
France
7 E. Dina Ebimbe
L. Tousart
Substitution
France
24 L. Tousart
R. Del Castillo
France
10 R. Del Castillo
R. Labeau Lascary
France
14 R. Labeau Lascary

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Capacity :
18541
Attendance :
15336
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thierry Bouille
Gwenaël Pasqualotti
Huseyin Ocak
Hakim Ben El Hadj

Statistics

Possession
AUX
48%
B29
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 3
25 Dangerous attacks 46
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

83 Ball Safe 68
12 Successful Headers 16
4 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 14
10 Goal Attempts 6
14 Goal Kicks 3
13 Dribble Attempts 14
3 Assists 0
7 Successful Dribbles 4
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

75 Attacks 100
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

10 Key Passes 5
76 Successful Passes Percentage 84
73 Long Passes 41
318 Passes 396
241 Successful Passes 333
35 Successful Long Passes 18
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

15 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 4

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 18
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Hakim Ben El Hadj

Starting XI ▼

16
Donovan Léon
Donovan Léon Goalkeeper
4.83
14
Gideon Mensah
Gideon Mensah Defender
7.3
92
Clément Akpa
Clément Akpa
Defender84'
6.72
20
Sinaly Diomandé
Sinaly Diomandé Defender
6.79
24
Bryan Okoh
Bryan Okoh Defender
2
9.18
27
Lamine Sy
Lamine Sy Defender
6.79
5
Kévin Danois
Kévin Danois Midfielder
7.57
22
Fredrik Oppegård
Fredrik Oppegård Midfielder
6.52
40
Théo De Percin
Théo De Percin
Goalkeeper8'
6.97
28
Romain Faivre
Romain Faivre Midfielder
7.97
7
Josué Casimir
Josué Casimir
Attacker64'
6.75
42
Elisha Owusu
Elisha Owusu (C) Midfielder
6.84
10
Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko Attacker
6.91
19
Danny Namaso
Danny Namaso Attacker
7.32
8
Naouirou Ahamada
Naouirou Ahamada
Midfielder84'
6.47
Referee : Hakim Ben El Hadj

Starting XI ▼

30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
6.69
4
Junior Diaz
Junior Diaz Defender
6.82
27
Daouda Guindo
Daouda Guindo Defender
6
2
Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko
Defender76'
6.57
44
Soumaïla Coulibaly
Soumaïla Coulibaly Defender
6.37
71
R. Le Guen
R. Le Guen
Defender81'
6.52
77
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala Defender
6.79
7
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Junior Dina Ebimbe Midfielder
5.94
17
Mama Baldé
Mama Baldé
Attacker65'
6.66
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti (C) Midfielder
6.47
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
6.27
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
6.72
33
Hamidou Makalou
Hamidou Makalou
Midfielder76'
6.92
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart Midfielder
6.41
99
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup
Attacker46'
6.33
14
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Rémy Labeau Lascary Attacker
6.26

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Naouirou Ahamada → Danny Namaso
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Clément Akpa → Gideon Mensah
9th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
R. Le Guen → Soumaïla Coulibaly
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Bradley Locko → Daouda Guindo
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Hamidou Makalou → Joris Chotard
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Pathé Mboup
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Danny Namaso
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
70'
65'
Event
Mama Baldé → Junior Dina Ebimbe
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Joris Chotard
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Josué Casimir → Romain Faivre
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Bryan Okoh
Header / 2nd Goal
58'
57'
Event
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Pathé Mboup → Lucas Tousart
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Junior Diaz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Bryan Okoh
Header / 1st Goal
24'
Event
Théo De Percin → Fredrik Oppegård
1st Substitution
8'
Event
Donovan Léon
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
6'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Grégoire Coudert from Brest makes a save, diving to the right corner. The assist came from Clément Akpa.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Pathé Mboup from Brest attempted a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked.
90
Update Update
Elisha Owusu from Auxerre committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Auxerre 3, Brest 0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move underway. Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper, Grégoire Coudert, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Josué Casimir.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Hamidou Makalou.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Auxerre. Kévin Danois has been flagged for being offside.
90
Update Update
Pathé Mboup from Brest committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Hugo Magnetti from Brest has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Mama Baldé from Brest takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top left corner of the goal. The assist came from Hamidou Makalou.
86
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Grégoire Coudert, the goalkeeper for Brest, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Kévin Danois, who delivered a precise through ball.
85
Update Update
Offside call against Brest. Pathé Mboup has been flagged for being offside.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Auxerre: Clément Akpa replaces Gideon Mensah.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Auxerre: Naouirou Ahamada replaces Danny Namaso.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Josué Casimir - Auxerre.
81
Update Update
Pathé Mboup from Brest earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Raphaël Le Guen comes on to replace Soumaïla Coulibaly.
80
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre takes a challenging shot with his right foot from the right side. However, Grégoire Coudert from Brest makes a fantastic save, deflecting the ball to the top right corner. The assist came from Bryan Okoh.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mama Baldé from Brest takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Hugo Magnetti, who delivered a cross.
78
Update Update
Kévin Danois from Auxerre committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Grégoire Coudert from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Auxerre! Lamine Sy took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Josué Casimir.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Hamidou Makalou comes on to replace Joris Chotard.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Bradley Locko replaces Daouda Guindo.
75
Update Update
Junior Diaz from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Danny Namaso committed a foul against Auxerre.
75
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
75
Update Update
Fouled by Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest.
74
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. Théo De Percin from Auxerre makes a save, diving to his right to deny the attempt. The assist came from Mama Baldé.
74
Update Update
Danny Namaso from Auxerre committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Kenny Lala from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Match interruption - Brest.
73
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
72
Update Update
Pathé Mboup from Brest committed a foul.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pathé Mboup from Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
72
Update Update
Josué Casimir from Auxerre was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Auxerre leads Brest 3-0. Danny Namaso scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Gideon Mensah.
67
Update Update
Fouled by Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest.
67
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joris Chotard from Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
65
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Mama Baldé comes on to replace Junior Dina Ebimbe.
65
Update Update
Kévin Danois from Auxerre was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Auxerre: Josué Casimir replaces Romain Faivre.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Danny Namaso allowed the ball to go out.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Bryan Okoh allowed the ball to go out.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Auxerre leads 2-0 against Brest. Bryan Okoh scores with a header from close range into the bottom right corner, thanks to a cross from Romain Faivre.
57
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Dina Ebimbe of Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
52
Update Update
Offside call against Auxerre. Danny Namaso has been caught in an offside position.
50
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
48
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Junior Diaz of Brest.
48
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre.
46
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Pathé Mboup replaces Lucas Tousart.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Elisha Owusu allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Bryan Okoh from Auxerre.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
45
Update Update
Kenny Lala from Brest committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline at Auxerre 1, Brest 0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded, with Auxerre leading Brest 1-0.
44
Update Update
Lamine Sy from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Fouled by Daouda Guindo from Brest.
43
Update Update
Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest committed a foul.
43
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Diaz from Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
42
Update Update
Lamine Sy from Auxerre commits a handball.
40
Update Update
Junior Diaz from Brest strikes the crossbar with a header from just inside the six-yard box on the left side.
39
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
39
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre committed a foul.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Junior Dina Ebimbe allowed it to go out.
37
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Bryan Okoh from Auxerre heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Kévin Danois, who delivered a cross.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Daouda Guindo's defensive error.
34
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Sinaly Diomandé from Auxerre committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Elisha Owusu from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Auxerre after Junior Diaz allowed the ball to go out.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Junior Diaz allowed the ball to go out.
27
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Auxerre takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Brest. Bryan Okoh scores with a header from the center of the box, directing the ball into the top left corner. The assist came from Romain Faivre, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
23
Update Update
Fouled by Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest.
23
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre earned a free kick in the attacking zone.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Soumaïla Coulibaly allowed the ball to go out.
21
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
21
Update Update
Junior Diaz of Brest committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Offside call against Brest. Romain Del Castillo has been flagged for being offside.
19
Update Update
Offside call against Brest. Rémy Labeau Lascary has been flagged for being offside.
17
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
16
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest.
15
Update Update
Lassine Sinayoko from Auxerre committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Soumaïla Coulibaly from Brest has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort is underway. Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Joris Chotard allowed the ball to go out.
9
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Daouda Guindo from Brest takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
8
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Auxerre: Théo De Percin replaces Fredrik Oppegård.
6
Update Update
Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
6
Red Card Red Card Important
Donovan Léon from Auxerre has been shown a red card.
6
Update Update
Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
4
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Sy from Auxerre attempts a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected away. The assist came from Danny Namaso.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Auxerre after Soumaïla Coulibaly gave it away.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Auxerre exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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