Auxerre vs Angers SCO Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps Sun, 3 May - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Auxerre AUX
3 Winner 1
Angers SCO ANG
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Lassine Sinayoko - 67'
Sékou Mara - 61', 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Goduine Koyalipou - 77' (P)
|
Second yellow card Amine Sbaï 45+1'

CONTEXT

Auxerre claimed a convincing 3-1 win over Angers SCO, solidifying their status as the stronger team. The hosts dominated with 56% possession compared to Angers' 44%, forging a 1-0 halftime lead through disciplined first-half play. Angers mounted a response early in the second half but suffered a critical blow with a red card, distorting the game's structure and allowing Auxerre to net two more goals for the final tally. This outcome reflected a significant 44.3% structural deviation favoring Auxerre, while efficiency metrics remained in line with expectations. Market expectations aligned perfectly with the result, as pre-match projections favored the home side at 55.7% probability. Absent xG data limits deeper chance analysis, but the red card event clearly amplified Auxerre's control post-interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Auxerre's 3-1 victory featured a significant 44.3% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Angers' red card decisively shifted second-half momentum to Auxerre.
  • Red card distortion: Angers' red card distorted second-half dynamics significantly.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Wattellier

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Y. El Hamzaoui

1st Assistant

C. Favre

2nd Assistant

K. Abed

4th Official

Auxerre C. Pélissier
C. Pélissier
VS
Angers SCO A. Dujeux
A. Dujeux
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Nantes Rank: 64 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 D
Brest Rank: 73 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 L
Le Havre Rank: 66 D
Rennes Rank: 78 L
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 D
Lens Rank: 82 L
Nice Rank: 72 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Auxerre
55.74%
Draw
25.73%
Away Angers SCO
18.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Auxerre
-42.12%
Draw
+23.81%
Angers SCO
+18.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.16
66.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Auxerre
Angers SCO
Power Score
70.16
66.73
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
201
273

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Auxerre — Opponent-weighted form score
Angers SCO — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Auxerre Angers SCO

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Auxerre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Angers SCO

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Auxerre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Angers SCO
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.41
24.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.32
37.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Auxerre — Efficiency Index
vs
Angers SCO — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Auxerre
Angers SCO
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Auxerre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Angers SCO
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Auxerre Angers SCO
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Auxerre Angers SCO
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Auxerre
Angers SCO
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Auxerre
vs
Angers SCO
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Auxerre Angers SCO
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Auxerre 0.49
Angers SCO 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Auxerre Angers SCO
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Auxerre 0.03
Angers SCO 0.08
Auxerre
Angers SCO
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AUX had peak pressure around 47'.
  • AUX started the game with stronger pressure.
AUX Pressure ANG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AUX reached the top pressure at 47' (91.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Auxerre AUX Home
5 matches
Angers SCO ANG Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
4
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. De Percin
Martinique
40 T. De Percin
L. Sy
France
27 L. Sy
S. Diomande
Ivory Coast
20 S. Diomande
B. Okoh
Switzerland
24 B. Okoh
G. Mensah
Substitution
Ghana
14 G. Mensah
N. Ahamada
Substitution
France
8 N. Ahamada
E. Owusu
Ghana
42 E. Owusu
K. Danois
Substitution
France
5 K. Danois
L. Sinayoko
Mali
10 L. Sinayoko
S. Mara
Substitution
France
9 S. Mara
D. Loader
Substitution
Cameroon
19 D. Loader
Pitch
K. Koffi
Burkina Faso
12 K. Koffi
J. Ekomie
Gabon
3 J. Ekomie
J. Lefort
France
21 J. Lefort
O. Camara
France
4 O. Camara
M. Louãr
Substitution
20 M. Louãr
H. Belkebla
Algeria
93 H. Belkebla
B. van den Boomen
Substitution
Netherlands
8 B. van den Boomen
M. Sbai
France
7 M. Sbai
P. Capelle
Substitution
France
15 P. Capelle
L. Rao-Lisoa
Substitution
France
27 L. Rao-Lisoa
P. Peter
Substitution
35 P. Peter

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Capacity :
18541
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Eric Wattellier
Youssef El Hamzaoui
Cédric Favre
Karim Abed

Statistics

Possession
AUX
56%
ANG
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 3
14 Shots 9
39 Dangerous attacks 34
56 Possession 44
4 Corners 6
2 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
21 Dribble Attempts 16
13 Goal Attempts 5
1 Injuries 1
11 Successful Headers 4
6 Goal Kicks 9
21 Throwins 18
10 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Assists 0
0 Penalties 2
83 Ball Safe 77

Attacking

100 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
36 Long Passes 39
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
18 Successful Long Passes 15
506 Passes 385
442 Successful Passes 325
16 Key Passes 5

Defensive

45 Duels Won 41
4 Interceptions 9
22 Tackles 20
2 Saves 7

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 21
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 2
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

40
Théo De Percin
Théo De Percin Goalkeeper
6.57
14
Gideon Mensah
Gideon Mensah Defender
6.69
92
Clément Akpa
Clément Akpa
Defender78'
6.58
20
Sinaly Diomandé
Sinaly Diomandé Defender
6.85
24
Bryan Okoh
Bryan Okoh Defender
7.11
27
Lamine Sy
Lamine Sy Defender
6.62
5
Kévin Danois
Kévin Danois Midfielder
7.1
18
Assane Dioussé
Assane Dioussé
Midfielder87'
6.55
8
Naouirou Ahamada
Naouirou Ahamada Midfielder
6.64
7
Josué Casimir
Josué Casimir
Attacker79'
6.66
42
Elisha Owusu
Elisha Owusu Midfielder
6.71
9
Sékou Mara
Sékou Mara Attacker
2
6.7
21
Lasso Coulibaly
Lasso Coulibaly
Midfielder79'
6.58
10
Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko Attacker
7.06
19
Danny Namaso
Danny Namaso Attacker
6.78
44
Mamoudou Cissokho
Mamoudou Cissokho
Attacker90+5'
Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

12
Hervé Koffi
Hervé Koffi Goalkeeper
7.28
3
Jacques Ekomié
Jacques Ekomié Defender
6.62
4
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Defender
6.85
20
Marius Louër
Marius Louër Defender
6.59
36
L. Machine
L. Machine
Attacker71'
6.52
21
Jordan Lefort
Jordan Lefort Defender
6.81
7
Amine Sbaï
Amine Sbaï Midfielder
6.62
8
Branco van den Boomen
Branco van den Boomen Midfielder
7.1
26
Florent Hanin
Florent Hanin
Defender86'
6.58
15
Pierrick Capelle
Pierrick Capelle Midfielder
6.64
6
Louis Mouton
Louis Mouton
Midfielder62'
6.67
27
Lilian Raolisoa
Lilian Raolisoa Midfielder
6.76
2
Carlens Arcus
Carlens Arcus
Defender86'
6.78
93
Haris Belkebla
Haris Belkebla Midfielder
6.74
35
P. Peter
P. Peter Attacker
6.6
9
Goduine Koyalipou
Goduine Koyalipou
Attacker62'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Carlens Arcus
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mamoudou Cissokho → Danny Namaso
10th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Assane Dioussé → Kévin Danois
9th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Carlens Arcus → Lilian Raolisoa
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Florent Hanin → Branco van den Boomen
8th Substitution
Event
Josué Casimir → Naouirou Ahamada
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Lasso Coulibaly → Sékou Mara
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Clément Akpa → Gideon Mensah
4th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Goduine Koyalipou
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
75'
Event
Jordan Lefort
Penalty awarded
71'
Event
L. Machine → Marius Louër
3rd Substitution
Event
Lassine Sinayoko
4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Lassine Sinayoko
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
67'
62'
Event
Goduine Koyalipou → P. Peter
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Louis Mouton → Pierrick Capelle
2nd Substitution
Event
Sékou Mara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
53'
Event
Pierrick Capelle
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Branco van den Boomen
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Bryan Okoh
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
49'
Event
Branco van den Boomen
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Amine Sbaï
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
45+1'
Event
Amine Sbaï
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Sékou Mara
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlens Arcus receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jacques Ekomie takes a header shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Camara attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Mamoudou Cissokho comes on for Danny Loader.
89
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Assane Diousse comes on for Kevin Danois.
86
Update Update
Carlens Arcus is on, and Lilian Raolisoa is off.
86
Update Update
Florent Hanin replaces Branco van den Boomen.
82
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Sy takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Josue Casimir takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Update Update
Clement Akpa comes on for Gideon Mensah.
79
Update Update
Lasso Coulibaly comes on for Sekou Mara.
79
Update Update
Josue Casimir comes on for Naouirou Ahamada.
78
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Goduine Koyalipou scores, making it 3-1.
77
Attempt Attempt
Goduine Koyalipou scores with a right-footed shot.
74
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Lefort takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
71
Substitution Substitution
Lanroy Machine is substituted for Marius Louer.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Camara's header shot missed.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lassine Sinayoko receives a yellow card.
67
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko scores with a right-footed shot.
64
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Sy takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Substitution Substitution
Louis Mouton is substituted for Pierrick Capelle.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Goduine Koyalipou comes on for Prosper Peter.
61
Update Update
Goal! Sekou Mara scores, making it 2-0.
61
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Update Update
Ousmane Camara's header is blocked.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pierrick Capelle receives a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
Danny Loader takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Branco van den Boomen's penalty is saved.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bryan Okoh receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Pierrick Capelle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Mohamed Amine Sbai.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Mohamed Amine Sbai.
45
Attempt Attempt
Danny Loader takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mohamed Amine Sbai.
43
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Naouirou Ahamada takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Amine Sbai takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Sinaly Diomande's header is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara's right-footed shot is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Sy's left-footed shot is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Pierrick Capelle attempts a header but misses the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Elisha Owusu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Lassine Sinayoko takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Mara scores with a left-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

Auxerre's 3-1 triumph over Angers SCO highlighted their superior quality, particularly after exploiting the opponent's red card to secure breathing room. Leading 1-0 at halftime with majority possession, they converted opportunities efficiently despite data gaps in xG metrics. The significant structural deviation of 44.3% underscores how events like the dismissal amplified their edge, aligning with market views that pegged them as clear favorites. This performance reinforces Auxerre's form, offering a blueprint for handling resilient foes through sustained pressure and capitalizing on numerical superiority in decisive moments.

Auxerre vs Angers SCO preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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