Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena MRV Tue, 21 Jul - 10:30 PM
Serie A
Atlético Mineiro AMN
Versus
Bahia BAH
KICKOFF : Tue, 21 Jul - 10:30 PM
Round 19 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Atlético Mineiro welcome Bahia to the Arena MRV for a Serie A regular season fixture in 2026. The hosts carry a narrow power advantage of two points with a rating of 63.23 against the visitors mark of 61.22, establishing them as the slightly stronger side on paper. Atlético Mineiro occupy ninth place in the domestic table while Bahia sit sixth, creating an interesting positional dynamic. Recent form scores further tilt toward the home team at 21.17 compared with 12.89 for Bahia. Both clubs enter the match with limited detailed underlying data available, particularly around efficiency and set-piece metrics where confidence remains low. The encounter therefore hinges on broader structural factors and current league standing rather than granular performance indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atlético Mineiro hold a two-point power advantage and are the stronger team overall.
  • Form: Home form score stands at 21.17 while away form registers 12.89.
  • Squad: Atlético Mineiro sit ninth domestically and Bahia occupy sixth place.
  • Efficiency: Detailed efficiency metrics are unavailable for both sides ahead of the match.
  • Transition: No specific transition data is provided in the pre-match profile.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy data used for both teams.
  • xVariable: Power ratings give Atlético Mineiro a marginal edge of 63.23 to 61.22.
  • Market: Baseline split: Atlético Mineiro 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Bahia 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Atlético Mineiro E. Domínguez
E. Domínguez
VS
Bahia R. Mücke Ceni
R. Mücke Ceni
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 W
Corinthians Rank: 66 L
Mirassol Rank: 64 W
Botafogo Rank: 67 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 67 W
Flamengo Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chapecoense Rank: 53 D
Botafogo Rank: 67 W
Coritiba Rank: 59 L
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 67 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Mineiro
0%
Draw
0%
Away Bahia
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.23
61.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
Power Score
63.23
61.22
League Position
9
6
Global Rank
420
495

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Mineiro — Opponent-weighted form score
Bahia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Mineiro Bahia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Mineiro AMN Home
4 matches
Bahia BAH Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-07-14T00:11:19+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

Official lineups and formations are usually announced 60–90 minutes before kickoff. Check back closer to the match to see the starting XIs here.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 21, 2026, 10:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 19 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena MRV
Capacity :
44892
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

22
Everson Felipe Marques Pires
Everson Felipe Marques Pires Goalkeeper
1
Gabriel Delfim Ferreira
Gabriel Delfim Ferreira Goalkeeper
46
Pedro Cobra Rodrigues
Pedro Cobra Rodrigues Goalkeeper
31
Robert Pinto Alves Assunção
Robert Pinto Alves Assunção Goalkeeper
14
Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza
Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza Defender
15
Leonardo Duarte da Silva
Leonardo Duarte da Silva Defender
13
Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović
Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović Defender
16
Renan Augusto Lodi dos Santos
Renan Augusto Lodi dos Santos Defender
4
Ruan Tressoldi Netto
Ruan Tressoldi Netto Defender
23
Angelo Smit Preciado Quiñónez
Angelo Smit Preciado Quiñónez Defender
2
Natanael Moreira Milouski
Natanael Moreira Milouski Defender
—
Rômulo Helberth Pereira Junior
Rômulo Helberth Pereira Junior Defender
3
Iván Román
Iván Román Defender
40
Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira Defender
36
Kauã Pascini Resende
Kauã Pascini Resende Defender
10
Gustavo Henrique Furtado Scarpa
Gustavo Henrique Furtado Scarpa Midfielder
8
Maycon de Andrade Barberan
Maycon de Andrade Barberan Midfielder
21
Alan Steven Franco Palma
Alan Steven Franco Palma Midfielder
17
Igor Silveira Gomes
Igor Silveira Gomes Midfielder
19
Reinier Jesus Carvalho
Reinier Jesus Carvalho Midfielder
30
Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
Victor Hugo Gomes Silva Midfielder
5
Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa
Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa Midfielder
25
Tomás Pérez
Tomás Pérez Midfielder
20
Patrick Roberto da Silva Campos
Patrick Roberto da Silva Campos Midfielder
38
Hendel dos Santos Nascimento
Hendel dos Santos Nascimento Midfielder
39
Mamady Cissé
Mamady Cissé Midfielder
9
Zander Mateo Cassierra Cabezas
Zander Mateo Cassierra Cabezas Attacker
92
Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues
Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues Attacker
11
Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte Attacker
28
Tomás Esteban Cuello
Tomás Esteban Cuello Attacker
27
Alan Steve Minda García
Alan Steve Minda García Attacker
29
Cauã Campos Soares
Cauã Campos Soares Attacker

Squad ▼

22
Leonardo da Silva Vieira
Leonardo da Silva Vieira Goalkeeper
1
Ronaldo de Oliveira Strada
Ronaldo de Oliveira Strada Goalkeeper
—
Guido Herrera
Guido Herrera Goalkeeper
61
Victor dos Santos Nascimento
Victor dos Santos Nascimento Goalkeeper
33
David de Duarte Macedo
David de Duarte Macedo Defender
25
Iago Amaral Borduchi
Iago Amaral Borduchi Defender
4
Victor Hugo Soares dos Santos
Victor Hugo Soares dos Santos Defender
21
Santiago Ramos Mingo
Santiago Ramos Mingo Defender
3
Marco Moreno Ojeda
Marco Moreno Ojeda Defender
46
Luciano Batista da Silva Junior
Luciano Batista da Silva Junior Defender
44
Marcos Victor Ferreira da Silva
Marcos Victor Ferreira da Silva Defender
66
José Guilherme de Lima Costa
José Guilherme de Lima Costa Defender
43
Luiz Gustavo Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos
Luiz Gustavo Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos Defender
31
Román Gómez
Román Gómez Defender
83
Frederico Lippert Neto Gomes
Frederico Lippert Neto Gomes Defender
10
Éverton Augusto de Barros Ribeiro
Éverton Augusto de Barros Ribeiro Midfielder
6
Jean Lucas de Souza Oliveira
Jean Lucas de Souza Oliveira Midfielder
14
Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho
Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho Midfielder
11
Rodrigo Nestor Bertalia
Rodrigo Nestor Bertalia Midfielder
26
Nicolás Brian Acevedo Tabárez
Nicolás Brian Acevedo Tabárez Midfielder
8
Caio Alexandre Souza e Silva
Caio Alexandre Souza e Silva Midfielder
80
Roger Gabriel Farias de Jesus
Roger Gabriel Farias de Jesus Midfielder
12
Willian José da Silva
Willian José da Silva Attacker
27
Everaldo Stum
Everaldo Stum Attacker
15
Michel Daryl Araújo Villar
Michel Daryl Araújo Villar Attacker
7
Ademir da Silva Santos Junior
Ademir da Silva Santos Junior Attacker
99
Cristian Gonzalo Olivera Ibarra
Cristian Gonzalo Olivera Ibarra Attacker
16
Erick da Costa Farias
Erick da Costa Farias Attacker
9
Alejo Véliz
Alejo Véliz Attacker
23
Mateo Sanabria
Mateo Sanabria Attacker
52
Ruan Pablo Barbosa Sousa
Ruan Pablo Barbosa Sousa Attacker
89
Wendeson Wanderley Santos de Melo
Wendeson Wanderley Santos de Melo Attacker

CONCLUSION

The narrow power differential and contrasting league positions set the stage for a measured contest at the Arena MRV. Atlético Mineiro benefit from superior recent form indicators and home status, yet Bahia remain competitive through their higher standing. Limited granular data on efficiency and set pieces shifts focus toward overall team structure and current trajectory. Both sides must navigate the absence of detailed expected-goal insights, placing greater emphasis on execution in open play. The fixture therefore represents a test of consistency rather than explosive individual moments. Observers can expect a game defined by tactical discipline and incremental advantages rather than dramatic swings.

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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