Atlético Madrid vs Girona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Atlético Madrid ATM
1 Winner 0
Girona GIR
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Ademola Lookman - 21'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Atlético Madrid secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Girona in a tightly contested match that saw the home side take the lead before halftime. The only goal of the game arrived in the first half, allowing Atlético Madrid to control proceedings thereafter despite Girona holding a slight edge in possession at 53 percent compared to the hosts 47 percent. Both teams struggled to create clear opportunities after the break, resulting in a low-scoring affair that highlighted defensive resilience from the winners. No red cards were shown to either side, keeping the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. Atlético Madrid, identified as the stronger team beforehand, delivered a result consistent with their status through disciplined organization and timely scoring. The match remained scoreless in the second half as Girona pushed forward without success. This outcome underscored Atlético Madrid ability to grind out results in challenging fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Atlético Madrid 1-0 Girona. Atlético Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with established performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment was not possible given the absence of expected goals figures.
  • Market alignment: The final result showed true market alignment with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be analyzed without available expected goals metrics.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal carried decisive event impact on the overall match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards issued produced no red card distortion to team structures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Muñíz Ruiz

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Velasco Arbaiza

4th Official

Spain

?. Nevado Rodríguez

2nd Assistant

Spain

D. Sánchez Rojo

1st Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.03
Yellow cards / match 3.88
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.27
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Girona M. Sánchez Muñoz
M. Sánchez Muñoz
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osasuna Rank: 78 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 L
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 74 L
Sevilla Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 79 D
Mallorca Rank: 75 L
Valencia Rank: 76 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 L
Real Madrid Rank: 92 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
53.02%
Draw
24.51%
Away Girona
22.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
-42.21%
Draw
+19.93%
Girona
+22.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.44
75.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Girona
Power Score
88.44
75.19
League Position
4
16
Global Rank
17
108

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Girona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Girona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Girona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Girona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Madrid Girona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Girona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Girona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético Madrid
vs
Girona
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético Madrid Girona
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético Madrid 0.00
Girona 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Girona
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético Madrid 0.00
Girona 0.00
Atlético Madrid
Girona
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATM had peak pressure around 23'.
  • GIR started the game with stronger pressure.
ATM Pressure GIR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATM reached the top pressure at 23' (79.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
13 matches
Girona GIR Away
Match Record
7
Wins
1
5
Draws
5
1
Losses
7
Goals
29
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
29
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:46:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
R. Le Normand
Spain
24 R. Le Normand
D. Hancko
Slovakia
17 D. Hancko
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
G. Simeone
Substitution
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
O. Vaargas
Substitution
United States
21 O. Vaargas
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
A. Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Rodríguez
A. Griezmann
France
7 A. Griezmann
A. Lookman
Substitution
Nigeria
22 A. Lookman
Pitch
P. Gazzaniga
Argentina
13 P. Gazzaniga
A. Moreno Lopera
Spain
24 A. Moreno Lopera
V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
Brazil
12 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
A. Torrijo
Spain
16 A. Torrijo
A. Martinez
Substitution
Spain
4 A. Martinez
I. Martín Núñez
Spain
23 I. Martín Núñez
A. Witsel
Substitution
Belgium
20 A. Witsel
J. Roca Casals
Substitution
Spain
3 J. Roca Casals
A. Ounahi
Morocco
18 A. Ounahi
B. Gil Salvatierra
Substitution
Spain
21 B. Gil Salvatierra
V. Tsygankov
Ukraine
15 V. Tsygankov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity :
70460
Attendance :
64396
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Aimar Velasco Arbaiza
Ángel Nevado Rodríguez
Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz
Diego Sánchez Rojo

Statistics

Possession
ATM
46%
GIR
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 7
48 Dangerous attacks 89
47 Possession 53
9 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Throwins 17
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
4 Successful Dribbles 19
10 Dribble Attempts 38
10 Goal Kicks 7
12 Goal Attempts 15
61 Ball Safe 64
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
11 Successful Headers 12
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

69 Attacks 139
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 89
48 Long Passes 37
28 Successful Long Passes 22
425 Passes 482
358 Successful Passes 429
14 Key Passes 15
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59

Defensive

27 Tackles 13
52 Duels Won 50
6 Interceptions 9
11 Saves 3

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 25
3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.77
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
6.86
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
7.06
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
6.69
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.98
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
6.96
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth
Attacker61'
6.8
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.97
11
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada
Midfielder46'
6.81
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas Midfielder
6.79
47
Javi Morcillo
Javi Morcillo
Midfielder61'
6.55
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
6.98
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Attacker
6.82
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet
Defender63'
6.74
Referee : Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz

Starting XI ▼

13
Paulo Gazzaniga
Paulo Gazzaniga Goalkeeper
6.85
4
Arnau Martínez
Arnau Martínez Defender
6.9
5
David López
David López
Defender77'
6.31
12
Vitor Reis
Vitor Reis Defender
6.88
16
Alejandro Francés
Alejandro Francés Defender
6.74
24
Álex Moreno
Álex Moreno Defender
6.69
3
Joel Roca
Joel Roca Midfielder
6.59
14
Claudio Echeverri
Claudio Echeverri
Midfielder63'
6.7
18
Azzedine Ounahi
Azzedine Ounahi Midfielder
7.26
20
Axel Witsel
Axel Witsel Midfielder
6.82
8
Fran Beltrán
Fran Beltrán
Midfielder56'
6.68
21
Bryan Gil
Bryan Gil Midfielder
6.63
7
Cristhian Stuani
Cristhian Stuani
Attacker56'
6.69
23
Iván Martín
Iván Martín Midfielder
6.81
15
Viktor Tsygankov
Viktor Tsygankov Attacker
7.14

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Javi Morcillo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
85'
77'
Event
David López → Arnau Martínez
8th Substitution
Event
Clément Lenglet  → Ademola Lookman
7th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Claudio Echeverri → Joel Roca
6th Substitution
Event
Alexander Sørloth → Álex Baena
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Javi Morcillo → Obed Vargas
4th Substitution
61'
56'
Event
Fran Beltrán → Axel Witsel
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Cristhian Stuani → Bryan Gil
3rd Substitution
Event
Thiago Almada → Giuliano Simeone
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Robin Le Normand
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Ademola Lookman
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Beltran's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christian Ricardo Stuani takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Echeverri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, known as Koke, takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Tsygankov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Tsygankov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, Koke, takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Christian Ricardo Stuani attempts a header but misses the shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi's left-footed shot is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Echeverri takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Javier Rodrigalvarez Morcillo receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Frances Torrijo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Update Update
David Lopez Silva is on, and Arnau Martinez is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sorloth's left-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Claudio Echeverri comes on for Joel Roca Casals.
63
Update Update
Clement Lenglet replaces Ademola Lookman.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alexander Sorloth comes on for Alejandro Baena Rodriguez.
61
Update Update
Javier Rodrigalvarez Morcillo is on, and Obed Vaargas is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Tsygankov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Update Update
Francisco Beltran replaces Axel Witsel.
56
Update Update
Christian Ricardo Stuani is on, and Bryan Gil Salvatierra is off.
55
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Reis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Obed Vaargas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alejandro Baena Rodriguez with his right foot is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Baena Rodriguez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Thiago Almada comes on for Giuliano Simeone.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, Koke, takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, also known as Koke, takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Tsygankov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Marc Pubill takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
36
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Moreno Lopera takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Marc Pubill takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
33
Attempt Attempt
Arnau Martinez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Gil Salvatierra takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Tsygankov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robin Le Normand receives a yellow card.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ademola Lookman scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Antoine Griezmann.
21
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
20
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
Update Update
David Hancko's header hits the post.
11
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Gil Salvatierra attempts a header but misses the shot.
8
Update Update
Alejandro Frances Torrijo's header is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Reis takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Gil Salvatierra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Baena Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Atlético Madrid 1-0 Girona. Structural assessment: Atlético Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Atlético Madrid vs Girona preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga, Spain View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.