Atlético Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Sat, 9 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga
Atlético Madrid ATM
0 Winner 1
Celta de Vigo CEL
Full Time Sat, 9 May 4:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
|
Goal
Borja Iglesias - 62'

CONTEXT

Atlético Madrid hosted Celta de Vigo in a tightly contested La Liga encounter that ended 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Despite enjoying 56% possession, the home side struggled to break down a resilient Celta defense, managing no goals across 90 minutes. The first half concluded 0-0, with both teams trading cautious probes without decisive breakthroughs. Atlético, viewed as the stronger outfit, ramped up pressure post-interval but lacked precision in the final third. Celta, meanwhile, thrived on the counter, striking once to secure a vital away victory. This outcome represents a moderate structural deviation, underscoring the visitors' clinical edge. No red cards disrupted play, and possession dominance failed to translate into points for the hosts. Celta's win injects momentum into their season, while Atlético must address finishing woes ahead of upcoming fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celta de Vigo recorded a moderate 7.6% structural deviation as the beneficiaries.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment verification with the 0-1 scoreline.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the final 0-1 result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match structure or flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Galech Apezteguía

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Escuela Melo

2nd Assistant

Spain

I. Alonso López

1st Assistant

Spain

?. Canovas García Villarrubia

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.51
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.29
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Celta de Vigo C. Giráldez González
C. Giráldez González
1.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 73 L
Sevilla Rank: 74 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Real Madrid Rank: 93 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: 75 W
Villarreal Rank: 82 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 95 L
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 L
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 L
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 8 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
0.24%
Draw
7.39%
Away Celta de Vigo
92.37%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
-0.08%
Draw
-1.3%
Celta de Vigo
+1.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.44
80.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Celta de Vigo
Power Score
88.44
80.68
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
16
58

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Celta de Vigo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celta de Vigo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celta de Vigo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.84
8.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
8.18
43.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético Madrid +3.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Celta de Vigo -3.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Celta de Vigo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celta de Vigo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Celta de Vigo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético Madrid
vs
Celta de Vigo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético Madrid 0.22
Celta de Vigo 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético Madrid 0.08
Celta de Vigo 0.00
Atlético Madrid
Celta de Vigo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATM had peak pressure around 78'.
  • ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
ATM Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATM reached the top pressure at 78' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
35 matches
Celta de Vigo CEL Away
Match Record
21
Wins
6
8
Draws
8
6
Losses
21
Goals
58
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
58
+28
Goal Difference
-28

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:04:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
J. Giménez de Vargas
Substitution
Uruguay
2 J. Giménez de Vargas
D. Hancko
Slovakia
17 D. Hancko
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
M. Llorente Moreno
Spain
14 M. Llorente Moreno
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
A. Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Rodríguez
A. Lookman
Substitution
Nigeria
22 A. Lookman
A. Griezmann
Substitution
France
7 A. Griezmann
A. Sørloth
Norway
9 A. Sørloth
Pitch
I. Radu
Romania
13 I. Radu
M. Alonso Mendoza
Spain
20 M. Alonso Mendoza
Y. Lago Amil
Spain
29 Y. Lago Amil
J. Rodríguez Galiano
Spain
32 J. Rodríguez Galiano
Ó. Mingueza García
Substitution
Spain
3 Ó. Mingueza García
Ilaix Moriba
Guinea
6 Ilaix Moriba
F. López González
Spain
8 F. López González
Á. Núñez Cobo
Substitution
Spain
14 Á. Núñez Cobo
W. Swedberg
Substitution
Sweden
19 W. Swedberg
P. Durán Fernández
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Durán Fernández
B. Iglesias Quintas
Substitution
Spain
7 B. Iglesias Quintas

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity :
70460
Attendance :
52643
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Iosu Galech Apezteguía
José Carlos Escuela Melo
Ignacio Alonso López
?. Canovas García Villarrubia

Statistics

Possession
ATM
56%
CEL
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 1
91 Dangerous attacks 12
56 Possession 44
10 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 9
0 Assists 1
16 Throwins 12
4 Substitutions 5
3 Goal Kicks 13
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Successful Dribbles 5
9 Successful Headers 6
12 Goal Attempts 2
14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
0 Injuries 1
46 Ball Safe 53

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 0
115 Attacks 74

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 21
560 Passes 468
505 Successful Passes 402
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
17 Key Passes 3
90 Successful Passes Percentage 86
35 Long Passes 51

Defensive

6 Interceptions 5
38 Duels Won 38
14 Tackles 15
0 Saves 4

Build-up

41 Total Crosses 0
12 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

11 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Iosu Galech Apezteguía

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
2
José María Giménez
José María Giménez Defender
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand
Defender20'
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas
Midfielder69'
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Midfielder
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Midfielder
16
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina
Defender60'
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
11
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada
Midfielder61'
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
Referee : Iosu Galech Apezteguía

Starting XI ▼

13
Ionuț Radu
Ionuț Radu Goalkeeper
20
Marcos Alonso
Marcos Alonso Defender
29
Yoel Lago
Yoel Lago Defender
32
Javi Rodríguez
Javi Rodríguez Defender
3
Óscar Mingueza
Óscar Mingueza Midfielder
21
Mihailo Ristic
Mihailo Ristic
Defender89'
6
Ilaix Moriba
Ilaix Moriba Midfielder
8
Fer López
Fer López Midfielder
14
Álvaro Núñez
Álvaro Núñez Midfielder
5
Sergio Carreira
Sergio Carreira
Defender68'
7
Borja Iglesias
Borja Iglesias Attacker
9
Ferran Jutglà
Ferran Jutglà
Attacker68'
18
Pablo Durán
Pablo Durán Attacker
10
Iago Aspas
Iago Aspas
Attacker68'
19
Williot Swedberg
Williot Swedberg Attacker
23
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo Álvarez
Midfielder77'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Mihailo Ristic → Óscar Mingueza
10th Substitution
77'
Event
Fer López
Persistent fouling / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Hugo Álvarez → Williot Swedberg
9th Substitution
Event
Miguel Cubo → Robin Le Normand
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Obed Vargas → Álex Baena
8th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Ferran Jutglà → Borja Iglesias
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Sergio Carreira → Álvaro Núñez
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Iago Aspas → Pablo Durán
4th Substitution
Event
Álex Baena
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
62'
Event
Borja Iglesias
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Thiago Almada → Antoine Griezmann
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Nahuel Molina → Ademola Lookman
2nd Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Robin Le Normand → José María Giménez
1st Substitution
20'
19'
Event
Ilaix Moriba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Álex Baena of Atletico Madrid receives a yellow card.
66
Update Update
Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Álex Baena fouled an Atletico Madrid player.
65
Update Update
Fouled by Fer López of Celta Vigo.
65
Update Update
Koke from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in an attacking position.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celta Vigo takes the lead 1-0 with Borja Iglesias scoring from the left side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Williot Swedberg.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Thiago Almada replaces Antoine Griezmann.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nahuel Molina replaces Ademola Lookman.
57
Update Update
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from close range but sending it high. The assist came from Álex Baena, who provided the cross.
55
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann is flagged for offside for Atletico Madrid.
54
Update Update
Celta Vigo is called offside. Fer López is the player in an offside position.
53
Update Update
Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo won a free kick in the attacking area.
53
Update Update
Foul by Robin Le Normand on Atletico Madrid.
52
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid is awarded a corner after Ionut Radu concedes it.
52
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid has a right-footed shot from close range saved by Celta Vigo's goalkeeper Ionut Radu, following an assist from Álex Baena.
50
Update Update
Ilaix Moriba from Celta Vigo misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. Óscar Mingueza provided the assist.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Le Normand - Atletico Madrid.
49
Update Update
Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo won a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid misses a header from close range, sending the ball over the bar. The assist came from Ademola Lookman, who delivered the cross.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo.
45
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Álvaro Núñez concedes.
45
Corner Corner
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid missed a header from the center of the box. The chance was set up by Matteo Ruggeri, who provided a cross following a corner.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo drawing 0-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
44
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sørloth's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Matteo Ruggeri.
39
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo.
39
Update Update
Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo won a free kick in defense.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Sørloth - Atletico Madrid.
37
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, and the ball went wide to the left from a free kick.
36
Update Update
Fouled by Fer López of Celta Vigo.
36
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in the attacking area.
34
Update Update
Óscar Mingueza from Celta Vigo won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Le Normand - Atletico Madrid.
34
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Yoel Lago concedes.
34
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Llorente's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ademola Lookman provided the assist.
33
Update Update
Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Javi Rodríguez of Celta Vigo.
32
Update Update
Celta Vigo is called offside. Borja Iglesias is the player in an offside position.
30
Update Update
Marc Pubill from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
30
Update Update
Celta Vigo is called offside. Borja Iglesias is the player in an offside position.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Williot Swedberg of Celta Vigo.
29
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid heads the ball from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but it's saved by Ionut Radu, the goalkeeper for Celta Vigo, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Antoine Griezmann with a cross.
27
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Antoine Griezmann of Atletico Madrid shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but the shot is saved by Ionut Radu, the goalkeeper for Celta Vigo. The assist was provided by Ademola Lookman.
26
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth's header from the center of the box is blocked. Ademola Lookman provided the assist with a cross.
26
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Javi Rodríguez concedes.
26
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman's shot from outside the box for Atletico Madrid is blocked.
25
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
20
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Robin Le Normand replaces José María Giménez due to injury.
19
Update Update
Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid won a free kick in the attacking area.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ilaix Moriba of Celta Vigo receives a yellow card for a foul.
17
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo.
17
Attempt Attempt
Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked. The assist came from Álvaro Núñez.
16
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Óscar Mingueza concedes.
15
Update Update
Celta Vigo is called offside. Pablo Durán is in an offside position.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, assisted by Álex Baena.
10
Update Update
Óscar Mingueza from Celta Vigo won a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Álex Baena fouled an Atletico Madrid player.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Fer López of Celta Vigo.
9
Update Update
Álex Baena from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
8
Update Update
Marc Pubill fouled an Atletico Madrid player.
8
Update Update
Williot Swedberg of Celta Vigo won a free kick in defense.
6
Attempt Attempt
Álex Baena's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
6
Update Update
Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Offside called against Atletico Madrid. Marcos Llorente is offside.
6
Update Update
Koke from Atletico Madrid won a free kick on the right wing.
5
Update Update
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
3
Update Update
Yoel Lago from Celta Vigo won a free kick in defense.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by José María Giménez of Atletico Madrid.
2
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid is awarded a corner after Marcos Alonso concedes it.

CONCLUSION

Celta de Vigo's 0-1 triumph over Atlético Madrid exemplifies opportunistic play trumping possession stats. With 44% ball control, the visitors defended stoutly and pounced effectively, extending a scoreless halftime into a deserved win. Atlético's inability to convert superiority into goals highlights ongoing attacking frailties, despite no disruptive incidents like reds. This moderate deviation boosts Celta's confidence, aligning with market views while exposing home vulnerabilities. As La Liga intensifies, Celta gains ground on mid-table rivals, whereas Atlético faces scrutiny over wasted dominance. The result serves as a reminder that efficiency often decides tight battles.

Atlético Madrid vs Celta de Vigo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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