Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Atlético Madrid ATM
3 Winner 2
Athletic Club ATH
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Alexander Sørloth - 90+3', 54'
Antoine Griezmann - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Gorka Guruzeta - 90+7'
Aitor Paredes - 23'

CONTEXT

Atlético Madrid staged a dramatic comeback to defeat Athletic Club 3-2 in a high-stakes La Liga clash at the Wanda Metropolitano. Trailing 0-1 at halftime despite enjoying 54% possession, the home side exploded into action after the break, netting three goals to secure the victory. As the designated stronger team, Atlético Madrid showcased resilience and clinical finishing, overturning the early deficit without any red cards marring the contest. Athletic Club mounted a spirited response but fell short. The match highlighted a significant structural deviation of 49.8% favoring the winners, with efficiency holding in line with expectations and the outcome aligning with pre-match assessments. No major events or adjustments altered the flow.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant structural deviation of 49.8% favoring Atlético Madrid.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events significantly impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: L
Sevilla Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Real Madrid Rank: L
Getafe Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osasuna Rank: W
Villarreal Rank: L
Getafe Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: W
Girona Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 5 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
50.22%
Draw
25.38%
Away Athletic Club
24.41%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
-42.02%
Draw
+18%
Athletic Club
+24.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.74
24.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club
Power Score
27.74
24.71
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Athletic Club

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Athletic Club
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Madrid Athletic Club
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Athletic Club
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético Madrid
vs
Athletic Club
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético Madrid Athletic Club
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético Madrid 0.19
Athletic Club 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Athletic Club
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético Madrid 0.05
Athletic Club 0.09
Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATH had peak pressure around 73'.
  • ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
ATM Pressure ATH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATH reached the top pressure at 73' (91.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
46 matches
Athletic Club ATH Away
Match Record
28
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
28
Goals
68
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
68
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T18:30:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Llorente Moreno
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Llorente Moreno
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
C. Lenglet
France
15 C. Lenglet
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
G. Simeone
Substitution
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
Pablo Barrios Rivas
Substitution
Spain
8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
J. Resurrección Merodio
Substitution
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
A. Rodríguez
Spain
10 A. Rodríguez
A. Griezmann
Substitution
France
7 A. Griezmann
A. Sørloth
Norway
9 A. Sørloth
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
1 U. Simón Mendibil
Y. Berchiche Izeta
Substitution
Spain
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
A. Paredes Casamichana
Spain
4 A. Paredes Casamichana
D. Vivian Moreno
Spain
3 D. Vivian Moreno
A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Spain
2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
A. Rego Mora
Spain
30 A. Rego Mora
I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
Substitution
Spain
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
N. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Spain
10 N. Williams Arthuer
U. Gómez Etxebarria
Substitution
Spain
20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
I. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Ghana
9 I. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity :
70460
Attendance :
56598
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jesús Gil Manzano
Ángel Nevado Rodríguez
Javier Martínez Nicolás
Javier Figueiredo Comesaña

Statistics

Possession
ATM
53%
ATH
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 4
32 Dangerous attacks 39
54 Possession 46
3 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 7
26 Throwins 27
21 Successful Headers 10
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
2 Assists 2
9 Dribble Attempts 22
106 Ball Safe 101
6 Goal Attempts 9
4 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

107 Attacks 142
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

472 Successful Passes 379
62 Long Passes 49
32 Successful Long Passes 17
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
85 Successful Passes Percentage 82
5 Key Passes 11
555 Passes 460

Defensive

23 Tackles 18
15 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 1
60 Duels Won 43

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 26
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jesús Gil Manzano

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.89
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.79
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
6.97
16
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina
Defender63'
6.75
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
6.73
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
7.05
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.98
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas
Midfielder72'
6.7
8
Pablo Barrios
Pablo Barrios Midfielder
6.98
5
Johnny Cardoso
Johnny Cardoso
Midfielder58'
6.72
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
6.95
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.96
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand
Defender72'
6.68
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
6.96
23
Nico González
Nico González
Attacker63'
6.89
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
2
6.78
Referee : Jesús Gil Manzano

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel Defender
6.62
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian Defender
6.71
4
Aitor Paredes
Aitor Paredes Defender
6.81
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Defender
6.93
19
Adama Boiro
Adama Boiro
Defender63'
6.47
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Midfielder
6.67
7
Álex Berenguer
Álex Berenguer
Attacker70'
6.87
10
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Midfielder
6.85
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro
Midfielder70'
6.7
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Midfielder
6.82
6
Mikel Vesga
Mikel Vesga
Midfielder70'
6.55
20
Unai Gómez
Unai Gómez Midfielder
6.5
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet
Midfielder63'
6.66
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego Midfielder
6.64
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Gorka Guruzeta
Header / 5th Goal
Event
Alexander Sørloth
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+3'
Event
Robin Le Normand → Giuliano Simeone
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Obed Vargas → Koke 
10th Substitution
72'
70'
Event
Álex Berenguer → Iñaki Williams
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Robert Navarro → Nico Williams
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Mikel Vesga → Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
8th Substitution
Event
Nico González → Antoine Griezmann
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Nahuel Molina → Marcos Llorente
4th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Adama Boiro → Yuri Berchiche
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Oihan Sancet → Unai Gómez
5th Substitution
Event
Johnny Cardoso → Pablo Barrios
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Alexander Sørloth
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
54'
Event
Antoine Griezmann
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Aitor Paredes
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid heads the ball from the center of the box but misses to the right. He was assisted by Álex Baena, who delivered a cross following a set piece situation.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid 3, Athletic Club 1. Alexander Sørloth scores for Atletico Madrid with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Nahuel Molina.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico González of Atletico Madrid.
90
Update Update
Alejandro Rego from Athletic Club wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
Foul by Obed Vargas of Atletico Madrid.
90
Update Update
Goal! Gorka Guruzeta scores for Athletic Club with a header from the center of the box. The match score is now Atletico Madrid 3, Athletic Club 2.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Atletico Madrid winning 3-2 against Athletic Club.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gorka Guruzeta scores for Athletic Club with a header from the center of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Alejandro Rego's cross. The score is now Atletico Madrid 3, Athletic Club 2.
89
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid wins a free kick on the left wing.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
88
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Robert Navarro from Athletic Club takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
86
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Vesga from Athletic Club misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
85
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso of Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Nico González from Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Nico González from Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the defensive half.
82
Attempt Attempt
Dani Vivian from Athletic Club misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Berenguer of Athletic Club.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Berenguer of Athletic Club.
74
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Obed Vargas concedes.
74
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Obed Vargas concedes.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Oihan Sancet of Athletic Club.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Robin Le Normand comes on for Giuliano Simeone.
72
Substitution Substitution
Obed Vargas comes on for Koke in an Atletico Madrid substitution.
72
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso wins a free kick for Atletico Madrid in the defensive half.
71
Update Update
Adama Boiro from Athletic Club wins a free kick in the attacking half.
71
Update Update
Foul by Nahuel Molina of Atletico Madrid.
71
Update Update
Dani Vivian from Athletic Club misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Alex Berenguer provided the assist with a cross after a set piece situation.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Alex Berenguer comes on for Iñaki Williams.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Robert Navarro comes on for Nico Williams.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Mikel Vesga comes on for Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta.
69
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Johnny Cardoso concedes.
69
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Johnny Cardoso concedes.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid.
68
Update Update
Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
66
Update Update
Dani Vivian of Athletic Club wins a free kick in the defensive half.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
66
Update Update
Álex Baena from Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the attacking half.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nahuel Molina comes on for Marcos Llorente.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Adama Boiro comes on for Yuri Berchiche.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Oihan Sancet comes on for Unai Gómez.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nico González comes on for Antoine Griezmann.
62
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta from Athletic Club misses with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
59
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
58
Update Update
Koke wins a free kick for Atletico Madrid on the right wing.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Aitor Paredes of Athletic Club.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Johnny Cardoso comes on for Pablo Barrios due to an injury.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid 2, Athletic Club 1. Alexander Sørloth scores for Atletico Madrid with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Athletic Club wins a corner after Marc Pubill concedes.
53
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Marc Pubill concedes.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Andoni Gorosabel of Athletic Club.
51
Update Update
Álex Baena from Atletico Madrid wins a free kick on the left wing.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Antoine Griezmann scores for Atletico Madrid with a left-footed shot from very close range to the center of the goal. The match is now 1-1.
47
Update Update
Pablo Barrios of Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the attacking half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Athletic Club leading 1-0 against Atletico Madrid.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Matteo Ruggeri of Atletico Madrid.
45
Update Update
Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta from Athletic Club wins a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta from Athletic Club wins a free kick on the right wing.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Iñaki Williams provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Atletico Madrid trailing Athletic Club 0-1.
38
Update Update
Foul by Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid.
38
Update Update
Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club wins a free kick in the defensive half.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Alexander Sørloth's header from the center of the box is saved by Unai Simón in the center of the goal. The assist came from Giuliano Simeone's cross.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Gorka Guruzeta of Athletic Club.
35
Update Update
Matteo Ruggeri of Atletico Madrid is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Andoni Gorosabel concedes.
32
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Aitor Paredes concedes.
30
Update Update
Nico Williams from Athletic Club wins a free kick in the defensive half.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Iñaki Williams of Athletic Club.
29
Update Update
Clément Lenglet from Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the defensive half.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Athletic Club takes the lead 1-0 against Atletico Madrid. Aitor Paredes scores with a header from the center of the box into the top left corner, assisted by Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta's cross after a corner.
22
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Clément Lenglet concedes.
21
Update Update
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid is caught offside.
14
Update Update
Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta from Athletic Club wins a free kick in the defensive half.
13
Update Update
Iñaki Williams of Athletic Club is caught offside.
10
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Alejandro Rego concedes.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Gorka Guruzeta of Athletic Club.
6
Update Update
Marc Pubill from Atletico Madrid wins a free kick in the defensive half.
2
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Pablo Barrios concedes.
2
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Gorka Guruzeta from Athletic Club has a left-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box that is saved.

CONCLUSION

Atlético Madrid's 3-2 victory over Athletic Club epitomizes their second-half mastery, transforming a 0-1 halftime deficit into a hard-fought win through superior possession and ruthless efficiency. Deemed the stronger side beforehand, they delivered a result in sync with expectations, free from red card disruptions or other distortions. This performance bolsters their league standing, affirming tactical depth and comeback spirit. Athletic Club's effort was commendable, yet the hosts' structural edge proved decisive in a contest of pure footballing quality.

Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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