Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Wed, 29 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Atlético Madrid ATM
1 – 1
Arsenal ARS
Full Time Wed, 29 Apr 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2
Julián Alvarez - 56' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Viktor Gyökeres - 44' (P)

CONTEXT

In the first leg of their knockout tie, Atlético Madrid hosted Arsenal in a compelling 1-1 draw. Arsenal, deemed the stronger team entering the match, struck first to lead 0-1 at halftime, capitalizing on their early dominance. Atlético Madrid, with 52% possession compared to Arsenal's 48%, mounted a comeback in the second half, equalizing to level the aggregate score at 1-1 heading into the return leg. No red cards disrupted play, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. The result leaves the tie evenly poised, with both sides demonstrating resilience and tactical discipline in a balanced encounter that showcased European football at its competitive best.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moderate structural deviation of 8.9% favored Arsenal.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the draw outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards resulted in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Makkelie

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Steegstra

1st Assistant

J. de Vries

2nd Assistant

Serdar Gozubuyuk

4th Official

Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.56
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Barcelona Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: D
Sporting CP Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Kairat Rank: W
Inter Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
4.47%
Draw
91.07%
Away Arsenal
4.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
-2.72%
Draw
+6.06%
Arsenal
-3.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.73
33.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Arsenal
Power Score
27.73
33.45
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Arsenal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.27
27.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.60
38.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético Madrid +0.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Arsenal -0.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Arsenal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Madrid Arsenal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Arsenal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Arsenal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético Madrid
vs
Arsenal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético Madrid Arsenal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético Madrid 0.47
Arsenal 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Arsenal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético Madrid 0.02
Arsenal 0.03
Atlético Madrid
Arsenal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATM had peak pressure around 60'.
  • ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
ATM Pressure ARS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATM reached the top pressure at 60' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
3 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-04-30T00:02:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Llorente Moreno
Spain
14 M. Llorente Moreno
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
D. Hancko
Slovakia
17 D. Hancko
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
G. Simeone
Substitution
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
J. de Souza Cardoso
Substitution
Brazil
5 J. de Souza Cardoso
A. Lookman
Nigeria
22 A. Lookman
A. Griezmann
France
7 A. Griezmann
J. Álvarez
Substitution
Argentina
19 J. Álvarez
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
P. Hincapié Reyna
Ecuador
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
B. White
Substitution
England
4 B. White
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
England
41 D. Rice
M. Ødegaard
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Ødegaard
G. Martinelli Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. Martinelli Silva
V. Gyökeres
Substitution
Sweden
14 V. Gyökeres
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 29, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity :
70460
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Danny Desmond Makkelie
Hessel Steegstra
Jan de Vries
Serdar Gozubuyuk

Statistics

Possession
ATM
52%
ARS
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
38 Dangerous attacks 45
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

23 Throwins 12
78 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
5 Goal Kicks 8
100 Ball Safe 81
9 Successful Headers 8
7 Successful Dribbles 9
0 Injuries 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Dribble Attempts 20
11 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

75 Attacks 107
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

420 Successful Passes 423
83 Successful Passes Percentage 88
60 Long Passes 42
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
23 Successful Long Passes 20
13 Key Passes 9
506 Passes 480

Defensive

21 Tackles 8
44 Duels Won 32
9 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 3

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 4
16 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.75
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
7.03
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
6.84
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
6.73
5
Johnny Cardoso
Johnny Cardoso Midfielder
6.81
16
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina
Defender88'
6.46
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.83
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.87
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand
Defender46'
6.77
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Midfielder
7.02
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
7.01
19
Julián Alvarez
Julián Alvarez Attacker
7.69
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena
Midfielder77'
6.57
Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
7.16
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
6.8
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
6.67
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera
Defender86'
6.68
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
6.93
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
7.17
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Midfielder
7.06
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze
Midfielder58'
7.06
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
7.13
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.34
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli Attacker
7.24
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard
Attacker68'
7.12
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
6.9
9
Gabriel Jesus
Gabriel Jesus
Attacker69'
7
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Attacker
7.36
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka
Attacker68'
7.24

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nahuel Molina → Johnny Cardoso
8th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Cristhian Mosquera → Ben White
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Eberechi Eze
Penalty disallowed
Event
Dávid Hancko
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
78'
Event
Álex Baena → Julián Alvarez
6th Substitution
77'
69'
Event
Gabriel Jesus → Viktor Gyökeres
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Bukayo Saka → Noni Madueke
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Leandro Trossard → Gabriel Martinelli
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Eberechi Eze → Martin Ødegaard
2nd Substitution
Event
Julián Alvarez
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
56'
Event
Marcos Llorente
Penalty awarded
55'
Event
Robin Le Normand → Giuliano Simeone
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Viktor Gyökeres
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Le Normand - Atletico Madrid.
90
Update Update
Marc Pubill from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Leandro Trossard of Arsenal commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Gabriel Jesus of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Bukayo Saka provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Nahuel Molina from Atletico Madrid misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing the goal. The assist was provided by Dávid Hancko.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal.
90
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard of Arsenal missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, sending the ball wide to the left. Eberechi Eze provided the assist.
89
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice from Arsenal had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went just left of the goal. Martín Zubimendi provided the assist.
88
Update Update
Koke from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nahuel Molina replaces Johnny Cardoso.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Jesus of Arsenal.
87
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Cristhian Mosquera of Arsenal takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Jan Oblak of Atletico Madrid. The assist comes from Eberechi Eze.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Cristhian Mosquera replaces Ben White.
85
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Eberechi Eze provided the assist.
80
Update Update
The VAR review confirms there is no penalty for Arsenal.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid receives a yellow card.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Álex Baena replaces Julián Alvarez due to injury.
76
Update Update
Leandro Trossard of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
76
Update Update
Marc Pubill of Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
74
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but David Raya from Arsenal saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Marcos Llorente.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus replaces Viktor Gyökeres.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Bukayo Saka replaces Noni Madueke.
68
Update Update
Eberechi Eze won a free kick for Arsenal on the right wing.
68
Update Update
Foul by Johnny Cardoso - Atletico Madrid.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Leandro Trossard replaces Gabriel Martinelli.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Martín Zubimendi against Arsenal.
65
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso of Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
65
Corner Corner
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, sending the ball high. The assist came from Dávid Hancko after a corner.
65
Corner Corner
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid missed a header from the center of the box, shooting to the left. The assist came from Antoine Griezmann, who provided a cross after a corner.
64
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after David Raya concedes.
64
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid win a corner after Declan Rice concedes.
63
Attempt Attempt
Johnny Cardoso's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
63
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after Gabriel Magalhães concedes.
63
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Ademola Lookman.
63
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Matteo Ruggeri's cross.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal.
60
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann of Atletico Madrid won a free kick on the right wing.
59
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Fouled by Marc Pubill of Atletico Madrid.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Eberechi Eze replaces Martin Ødegaard.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Julián Alvarez scores for Atletico Madrid with a right-footed shot into the top left corner. The match remains 1-1.
55
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Atletico Madrid.
54
Corner Corner
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box. The assist came from Antoine Griezmann, who provided a cross after a corner.
54
Update Update
Ben White of Arsenal concedes a penalty for a handball in the penalty area.
53
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
53
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after William Saliba concedes.
53
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by David Raya of Arsenal. The assist came from Julián Alvarez.
53
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid win a corner after Gabriel Magalhães concedes.
52
Update Update
Handball by Declan Rice for Arsenal.
49
Attempt Attempt
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick, but it goes close and misses.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Viktor Gyökeres against Arsenal.
48
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso of Atletico Madrid won a free kick in an attacking position.
47
Update Update
Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Robin Le Normand replaces Giuliano Simeone.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Atletico Madrid 0, Arsenal 1.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Atletico Madrid 0, Arsenal 1.
45
Update Update
Ademola Lookman from Atletico Madrid misses a chance, heading the ball high and wide to the left from the center of the box. Matteo Ruggeri provided the assist with a cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Viktor Gyökeres scores for Arsenal with a right-footed shot into the left corner. The match stands at Atletico Madrid 0, Arsenal 1.
42
Update Update
Arsenal are awarded a penalty after Viktor Gyökeres is fouled in the penalty area.
42
Update Update
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
41
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Noni Madueke provided the assist.
36
Update Update
Piero Hincapié of Arsenal earned a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Julián Alvarez fouled an Atletico Madrid player.
36
Attempt Attempt
Julián Alvarez's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Koke.
30
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke has a missed chance for Arsenal, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes just to the left. The assist was provided by Martin Ødegaard.
29
Update Update
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid misses a chance, heading the ball over the goal from the center of the box. The assist came from Matteo Ruggeri's cross.
25
Update Update
Handball by Martín Zubimendi for Arsenal.
22
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal.
21
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Matteo Ruggeri concedes.
19
Update Update
Ben White is flagged for offside for Arsenal.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Viktor Gyökeres against Arsenal.
17
Update Update
Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Piero Hincapié of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Giuliano Simeone of Atletico Madrid.
15
Attempt Attempt
Martin Ødegaard's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Viktor Gyökeres provided the assist.
14
Corner Corner
Atletico Madrid wins a corner after David Raya concedes.
14
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Julián Alvarez of Atletico Madrid has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by David Raya of Arsenal. The assist comes from Matteo Ruggeri.
6
Attempt Attempt
Piero Hincapié from Arsenal missed a chance with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, sending the ball to the left of the goal. The assist came from Noni Madueke's cross.
2
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres commits a handball for Arsenal.
1
Attempt Attempt
Julián Alvarez's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Giuliano Simeone.

CONCLUSION

Arsenal's first-half lead reflected their stronger billing, but Atlético Madrid's second-half response secured a vital away draw in this leg-one stalemate. Slight home possession edge underscored a tactical battle with few clear chances wasted. Absent red cards or disruptions, the 1-1 scoreline mirrors evenly matched quality, preserving aggregate parity at 1-1. Arsenal must capitalize at home in the decider, while Atlético's resolve positions them well for progression. This outcome sets up high stakes for the return fixture.

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