Athletic Club vs Valencia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Sun, 10 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
0 Winner 1
Valencia VAL
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
|
Goal
Umar Sadiq - 72'

CONTEXT

Athletic Club hosted Valencia in a La Liga clash that defied expectations, ending 0-1 in favor of the visitors. As the stronger team with 55% possession, Athletic Club dominated proceedings but failed to convert chances into goals. The first half finished 0-0, level and tense, with both sides probing cautiously. Valencia, holding 45% possession, capitalized on a second-half opportunity to score the decisive goal, securing a narrow victory. No red cards were shown, keeping the game flowing without major disruptions. This result marks an upset, as pre-match assessments favored Athletic Club heavily. Valencia's efficiency in attack proved the difference, while Athletic's inability to break through highlighted defensive resilience from the away side. The match showcased tactical discipline from Valencia, who absorbed pressure and struck at the right moment, flipping the script on the home advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Valencia's win reflected a moderate 7.6% structural deviation favoring the visitors.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations undetermined due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No significant second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Ortiz Arias

Spain
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Garrido Romero

1st Assistant

Spain

G. Santiago Sacristán

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.49
Yellow cards / match 4.21
Red cards / match 0.24
Penalties / match 0.31
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
1.23
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 88 L
Osasuna Rank: 78 W
Villarreal Rank: 84 L
Getafe Rank: 76 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 74 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 81 L
Sevilla Rank: 74 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 15 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
0.24%
Draw
7.39%
Away Valencia
92.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.86
77.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Valencia
Power Score
77.86
77.82
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
79
80

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Athletic Club Opponent-weighted form score
Valencia Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Valencia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Valencia

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valencia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.27
18.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.33
32.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Athletic Club +1.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Valencia -1.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
Valencia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valencia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Athletic Club Valencia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Athletic Club Valencia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
Valencia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Athletic Club
vs
Valencia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Athletic Club Valencia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Athletic Club Valencia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Athletic Club
Valencia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATH had peak pressure around 103'.
  • ATH started the game with stronger pressure.
ATH Pressure VAL Pressure
Pressure Index: ATH reached the top pressure at 103' (85.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
47 matches
Valencia VAL Away
Match Record
16
Wins
16
15
Draws
15
16
Losses
16
Goals
56
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
56
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
1 U. Simón Mendibil
A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Spain
2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Y. Álvarez López
Spain
5 Y. Álvarez López
A. Laporte
Substitution
Spain
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
Spain
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
Spain
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
A. Rego Mora
Substitution
Spain
30 A. Rego Mora
R. Navarro Muñoz
Spain
23 R. Navarro Muñoz
O. Sancet Tirapu
Substitution
Spain
8 O. Sancet Tirapu
N. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Spain
10 N. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
J. Gayá Peña
Spain
14 J. Gayá Peña
E. Cömert
Switzerland
24 E. Cömert
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
R. Saravia
Substitution
Argentina
20 R. Saravia
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
J. García Vayá
Spain
18 J. García Vayá
L. Rioja González
Spain
11 L. Rioja González
J. Guerra Moreno
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
D. López Noguerol
Substitution
Spain
16 D. López Noguerol
H. Duro
Substitution
Spain
9 H. Duro

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
San Mamés Barria
Capacity :
53289
Attendance :
46880
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
José Antonio Garrido Romero
Guillermo Santiago Sacristán
Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias

Statistics

Possession
ATH
56%
VAL
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 4
75 Dangerous attacks 25
55 Possession 45
13 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Successful Dribbles 3
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
24 Throwins 21
5 Substitutions 5
19 Successful Headers 11
73 Ball Safe 79
9 Goal Attempts 6
3 Goal Kicks 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Penalties 1
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 56
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
51 Long Passes 63
328 Successful Passes 278
407 Passes 354
10 Key Passes 4
25 Successful Long Passes 17
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

Defensive

52 Duels Won 42
20 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 4

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 13
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias

Starting XI

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel Defender
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Defender
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian
Defender46'
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Defender
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet Midfielder
7
Álex Berenguer
Álex Berenguer
Attacker65'
10
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Midfielder
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams
Attacker36'
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Midfielder
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro Midfielder
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego Midfielder
6
Mikel Vesga
Mikel Vesga
Midfielder71'
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
Referee : Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias

Starting XI

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Defender
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Defender
21
Jesús Vázquez
Jesús Vázquez
Defender90+6'
24
Eray Cömert
Eray Cömert Defender
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Midfielder
4
Unai Núñez
Unai Núñez
Defender83'
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
16
Diego López
Diego López Midfielder
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq
Attacker70'
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Midfielder
9
Hugo Duro
Hugo Duro Attacker
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic
Midfielder70'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Jesús Vázquez Renzo Saravia
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Umar Sadiq
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Unai Núñez Javi Guerra
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Umar Sadiq
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Mikel Vesga Alejandro Rego
8th Substitution
71'
Event
Unai Gómez
7th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Umar Sadiq Diego López
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Filip Ugrinic Hugo Duro
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Largie Ramazani
4th Substitution
Event
Álex Berenguer Oihan Sancet
3rd Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Pepelu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Alejandro Rego
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
50'
Event
Eray Cömert
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dani Vivian Aymeric Laporte
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Iñaki Williams Nico Williams
1st Substitution
36'
27'
Event
Hugo Duro
Woodwork
Event
Aymeric Laporte
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Jesús Vázquez replaces Renzo Saravia.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner after Unai Simón concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Gorka Guruzeta of Athletic Club misses a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box high and wide to the left. The assist came from Mikel Jauregizar, who delivered a cross after a corner.
90
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Gorka Guruzeta of Athletic Club heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Stole Dimitrievski of Valencia. The assist came from Mikel Jauregizar's cross.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Athletic Club losing 0-1 to Valencia.
90
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Luis Rioja concedes.
90
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia commits a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Athletic Club is awarded a corner after Luis Rioja concedes it.
89
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Umar Sadiq from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Unai Simón from Athletic Club saves it in the left corner.
88
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia commits a foul.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Umar Sadiq of Valencia receives a yellow card for a foul.
88
Update Update
Yeray Álvarez from Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
87
Update Update
Unai Gómez of Athletic Club is flagged for offside.
87
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Jauregizar's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Andoni Gorosabel.
85
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Stole Dimitrievski from Valencia.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Unai Núñez replaces Javi Guerra.
83
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Unai Núñez concedes.
80
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Jauregizar's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Eray Cömert concedes.
75
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Unai Gómez of Athletic Club heads the ball from the center of the box, but Stole Dimitrievski of Valencia saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Iñaki Williams with a cross.
74
Update Update
Umar Sadiq of Valencia is flagged for offside.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valencia takes the lead 1-0 with Umar Sadiq scoring from a header in the center of the box.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Mikel Vesga replaces Alejandro Rego.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Largie Ramazani replaces Diego López due to injury.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Unai Gómez replaces Robert Navarro.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Filip Ugrinic replaces Pepelu.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Umar Sadiq replaces Hugo Duro.
68
Corner Corner
Athletic Club is awarded a corner after Guido Rodríguez concedes.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Berenguer of Athletic Club.
66
Update Update
Eray Cömert from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Alex Berenguer replaces Oihan Sancet.
61
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Stole Dimitrievski from Valencia.
61
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by José Gayà.
60
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Iñaki Williams of Athletic Club has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Andoni Gorosabel.
60
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Oihan Sancet of Athletic Club shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed to the left after a corner.
59
Update Update
Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club won a free kick on the left wing.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pepelu from Valencia receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Update Update
Foul by Pepelu for Valencia.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alejandro Rego from Athletic Club receives a yellow card for a foul.
55
Update Update
Javi Guerra from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
55
Attempt Attempt
Oihan Sancet's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Mikel Jauregizar provided the assist.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
54
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Mikel Jauregizar.
52
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Robert Navarro of Athletic Club shoots with his right foot from outside the box but it goes high and wide to the right. The assist was provided by Iñaki Williams with a header after a corner.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by Diego López.
51
Corner Corner
Athletic Club is awarded a corner after Renzo Saravia concedes it.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eray Cömert of Valencia receives a yellow card for a foul.
50
Update Update
Oihan Sancet of Athletic Club won a free kick in the attacking area.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Eray Cömert of Valencia.
46
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Hugo Duro from Valencia.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Athletic Club and Valencia tied at 0-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Dani Vivian replaces Aymeric Laporte.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Athletic Club and Valencia.
43
Update Update
Offside called against Valencia. Luis Rioja is offside.
43
Attempt Attempt
Luis Rioja's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Javi Guerra.
42
Corner Corner
Valencia is awarded a corner after Gorka Guruzeta concedes.
41
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner after Unai Simón concedes.
41
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner after Unai Simón concedes.
40
Corner Corner
Athletic Club is awarded a corner after Guido Rodríguez concedes.
39
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte of Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
39
Update Update
Diego López fouled a player from Valencia.
36
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Iñaki Williams replaces Nico Williams due to injury.
35
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nico Williams from Athletic Club.
32
Update Update
Foul by Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club.
32
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez of Valencia won a free kick in defense.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Stole Dimitrievski concedes.
29
Corner Corner
Athletic Club wins a corner after Renzo Saravia concedes.
29
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Gorka Guruzeta from Athletic Club takes a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Stole Dimitrievski from Valencia saves it in the left corner.
28
Update Update
José Gayà from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Gorka Guruzeta from Athletic Club committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Alejandro Rego of Athletic Club concedes a penalty for a handball in the penalty area.
26
Update Update
Valencia is awarded a penalty after Eray Cömert is fouled in the penalty area.
26
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Duro's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
25
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner after Yeray Álvarez concedes.
23
Corner Corner
Valencia is awarded a corner after Aymeric Laporte concedes.
20
Update Update
Nico Williams of Athletic Club is called offside.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by José Gayà.
19
Attempt Attempt
Oihan Sancet's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Javi Guerra from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick, but it goes high.
15
Update Update
Hugo Duro from Valencia won a free kick in the attacking zone.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aymeric Laporte of Athletic Club receives a yellow card for a foul.
14
Attempt Attempt
Nico Williams from Athletic Club had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but the shot went just to the left.
12
Attempt Attempt
Robert Navarro from Athletic Club had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Oihan Sancet.
11
Update Update
Renzo Saravia of Valencia won a free kick on the right wing.
7
Update Update
Renzo Saravia from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Diego López from Valencia.
5
Update Update
Nico Williams from Athletic Club earned a free kick on the left wing.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Pepelu for Valencia.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a concession by Pepelu.
2
Update Update
Hugo Duro from Valencia commits a foul.
2
Update Update
Alejandro Rego from Athletic Club won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Aymeric Laporte from Athletic Club.
1
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Hugo Duro from Valencia.

CONCLUSION

Valencia's 1-0 triumph over stronger Athletic Club underscores the fine margins in football. Despite 55% possession and home advantage, Athletic Club drew blanks, allowing Valencia to snatch victory with a clinical second-half strike. The goalless first half set a cagey tone, but Valencia's defensive solidity and opportunistic attack prevailed. This moderate deviation highlights Valencia's growing resilience on the road. For Athletic Club, questions linger over finishing prowess, while Valencia builds momentum. A testament to tactical nous triumphing over dominance, this result shifts dynamics in the standings.

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