Athletic Club vs Valencia Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Valencia VALSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
Athletic Club hosted Valencia in a La Liga clash that defied expectations, ending 0-1 in favor of the visitors. As the stronger team with 55% possession, Athletic Club dominated proceedings but failed to convert chances into goals. The first half finished 0-0, level and tense, with both sides probing cautiously. Valencia, holding 45% possession, capitalized on a second-half opportunity to score the decisive goal, securing a narrow victory. No red cards were shown, keeping the game flowing without major disruptions. This result marks an upset, as pre-match assessments favored Athletic Club heavily. Valencia's efficiency in attack proved the difference, while Athletic's inability to break through highlighted defensive resilience from the away side. The match showcased tactical discipline from Valencia, who absorbed pressure and struck at the right moment, flipping the script on the home advantage.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Valencia's win reflected a moderate 7.6% structural deviation favoring the visitors.
- Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
- xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
- Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations undetermined due to lack of data.
- Event impact: No significant second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
- Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
M. Ortiz Arias
Other match officials
J. Garrido Romero
1st Assistant
G. Santiago Sacristán
2nd Assistant
League averages
La Liga Based on last 100 matches


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Athletic Club
ValenciaTeam Power Ranking
i
77.86
77.82
Athletic Club
ValenciaForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Athletic Club
Valencia

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
Athletic Club Valencia
Athletic Club Valencia
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Athletic Club
Athletic Club Valencia


Athletic Club Valencia


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ATH had peak pressure around 103'.
- ATH started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:49+00:00
STARTING XI
Athletic Club
Valencia





















































General Information
Next Match

Athletic Club
vs

Espanyol
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Wed, 13 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: RCDE Stadium

Valencia
vs

Rayo Vallecano
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Thu, 14 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Estadio de Mestalla
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Athletic ClubManager ▼

Starting XI ▼















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼







ValenciaManager ▼

Starting XI ▼















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼







Events
CONCLUSION
Athletic Club vs Valencia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary