Athletic Club vs Real Betis Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
2 Winner 1
Real Betis BET
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Oihan Sancet - 45'
Dani Vivian - 25'
Goal
|
Goal
Pablo Fornals - 75'

CONTEXT

The match between Athletic Club and Real Betis has finished, with Real Betis securing a 1-0 away victory. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Real Betis. The betting market initially favored Athletic Club with a 47.3% implied win probability, while a draw and a Betis away win both stood at 26.3%. Ultimately, the final outcome did not align with this pre-match market. Despite claiming the win, the outcome was not consistent with the underlying expected goals (xG) data. Athletic Club created the better scoring opportunities, finishing with 1.48 xG compared to just 0.77 xG for Betis. However, Real Betis dictated the overall flow of the game by holding 61% of the possession, leaving the home side to operate with just 39% of the ball. In front of goal, the efficiency shift remained in line with standard models, even though Athletic Club ultimately failed to convert their higher expected goals total into a result. Additionally, the match concluded

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Betis showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Real Betis M. Pellegrini
M. Pellegrini
0.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sevilla Rank: 74 L
Mallorca Rank: 75 L
Osasuna Rank: 79 D
Espanyol Rank: 74 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Atlético Madrid Rank: 90 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 84 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 70 D
Real Madrid Rank: 95 L
Getafe Rank: 76 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 77 D
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 9 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
47.32%
Draw
26.34%
Away Real Betis
26.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.94
82.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Real Betis
Power Score
78.94
82.39
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
69
47

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Betis — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Real Betis

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Betis

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Athletic Club ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Betis
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.03
21.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.64
36.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Athletic Club +1.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Betis -1.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Athletic Club
Real Betis
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Athletic Club
vs
Real Betis
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Athletic Club Real Betis
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Athletic Club Real Betis
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Athletic Club
Real Betis
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
38 matches
Real Betis BET Away
Match Record
18
Wins
11
9
Draws
9
11
Losses
18
Goals
57
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
57
+14
Goal Difference
-14

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
1 U. Simón Mendibil
Í. Lekue Martínez
Spain
15 Í. Lekue Martínez
D. Vivian Moreno
Spain
3 D. Vivian Moreno
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
Spain
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
A. Rego Mora
Substitution
Spain
30 A. Rego Mora
I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
Substitution
Spain
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
I. Williams Arthuer
Ghana
9 (C) I. Williams Arthuer
O. Sancet Tirapu
Substitution
Spain
8 O. Sancet Tirapu
A. Berenguer Remiro
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Berenguer Remiro
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Pitch
P. López Sabata
Spain
25 P. López Sabata
D. Gómez
Argentina
16 D. Gómez
Natan
Brazil
4 Natan
D. Llorente Ríos
Spain
3 D. Llorente Ríos
?. Ortiz Monterrey
Substitution
Spain
40 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
A. Ezzalzouli
Morocco
10 A. Ezzalzouli
M. Roca Junqué
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Roca Junqué
S. Amrabat
Morocco
14 S. Amrabat
A. dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 A. dos Santos
J. Hernández Suárez
Substitution
Colombia
19 J. Hernández Suárez
A. Ruibal García
Substitution
Spain
24 (C) A. Ruibal García

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
San Mamés Barria
Capacity :
53289
Attendance :
47723
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz
Fabián Blanco Rodríguez
María Eugenia Gil Soriano
Diego Sánchez Rojo

Statistics

Possession
ATH
43%
BET
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 3
61 Dangerous attacks 44
39 Possession 61
6 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

22 Dribble Attempts 19
75 Ball Safe 86
32 Successful Dribbles Percentage 68
8 Goal Kicks 5
11 Successful Headers 10
7 Successful Dribbles 13
22 Throwins 23
8 Goal Attempts 8
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

105 Attacks 86
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

286 Successful Passes 490
358 Passes 568
80 Successful Passes Percentage 86
27 Successful Long Passes 19
56 Long Passes 40
9 Key Passes 7
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

14 Tackles 25
8 Interceptions 9
2 Saves 4

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 24
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
7.05
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian Defender
7.17
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
6.7
15
Iñigo Lekue
Iñigo Lekue Defender
6.15
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Defender
6.93
7
Álex Berenguer
Álex Berenguer Midfielder
6.69
22
Nico Serrano
Nico Serrano
Attacker86'
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet Midfielder
7.93
20
Unai Gómez
Unai Gómez
Midfielder72'
6.39
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams (C) Midfielder
7.12
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Midfielder
6.57
6
Mikel Vesga
Mikel Vesga
Midfielder62'
6.25
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego Midfielder
6.98
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro
Midfielder86'
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
6.47
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar
Midfielder62'
6.36
Referee : Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz

Starting XI ▼

25
Pau López
Pau López Goalkeeper
6.93
3
Diego Llorente
Diego Llorente Defender
6.92
4
Natan
Natan Defender
6.47
16
Valentín Gómez
Valentín Gómez Defender
6.92
40
Ángel Ortiz
Ángel Ortiz Defender
6.44
2
Héctor Bellerín
Héctor Bellerín
Defender46'
6.85
7
Antony
Antony Midfielder
6.44
8
Pablo Fornals
Pablo Fornals
Midfielder46'
7.73
10
Abde Ezzalzouli
Abde Ezzalzouli Midfielder
7.27
14
Sofyan Amrabat
Sofyan Amrabat Midfielder
6.89
21
Marc Roca
Marc Roca Midfielder
6.48
6
Sergi Altimira
Sergi Altimira
Midfielder46'
6.92
19
Cucho Hernández
Cucho Hernández Attacker
7.09
11
Cédric Bakambu
Cédric Bakambu
Attacker62'
6.38
24
Aitor Ruibal
Aitor Ruibal (C) Attacker
6.78
9
Chimy Ávila
Chimy Ávila
Attacker74'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Natan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Robert Navarro → Alejandro Rego
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Nico Serrano → Álex Berenguer
10th Substitution
86'
77'
Event
Cédric Bakambu
Goal disallowed
Event
Unai Simón
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
76'
75'
Event
Pablo Fornals
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
74'
Event
Chimy Ávila → Aitor Ruibal
8th Substitution
Event
Unai Gómez → Oihan Sancet
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Mikel Vesga → Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Mikel Jauregizar → Gorka Guruzeta
5th Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Cédric Bakambu → Cucho Hernández
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Pablo Fornals → Antony
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Sergi Altimira → Marc Roca
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Héctor Bellerín → Ángel Ortiz
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Cédric Bakambu
Goal awarded
45+1'
Event
Oihan Sancet
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
Event
Dani Vivian
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Nico Serrano from Athletic Club earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
90
Update Update
Unai Simón from Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Natan from Real Betis has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Natan from Real Betis committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Sofyan Amrabat of Real Betis has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Sergi Altimira from Real Betis was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Athletic Club 2, Real Betis 1.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Sergi Altimira from Real Betis earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Robert Navarro from Athletic Club committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Unai Simón from Athletic Club was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Sergi Altimira from Real Betis earned a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
Unai Gómez from Athletic Club committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Abde Ezzalzouli from Real Betis has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Nico Serrano from Athletic Club committed a foul.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Sofyan Amrabat allowed the ball to go out.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Robert Navarro comes on to replace Alejandro Rego.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Nico Serrano comes on to replace Alex Berenguer.
86
Update Update
Offside call against Real Betis. Abde Ezzalzouli has been flagged for being offside.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Cédric Bakambu from Real Betis attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Betis after Alejandro Rego allowed it to go out.
83
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Abde Ezzalzouli of Real Betis takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Chimy Ávila.
81
Update Update
Valentín Gómez from Real Betis commits a handball.
77
Update Update
Offside call against Real Betis. Cédric Bakambu has been flagged for being offside.
77
Update Update
GOAL DISALLOWED AFTER VAR REVIEW: Cédric Bakambu from Real Betis finds the back of the net, but the goal is canceled following a VAR check.
77
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed for Athletic Club, the score remains 2-1 in favor of Athletic Club against Real Betis.
76
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche from Athletic Club committed a foul.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Unai Simón from Athletic Club has been shown a yellow card.
76
Update Update
Chimy Ávila from Real Betis has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Athletic Club leads 2-1 against Real Betis. Pablo Fornals scores for Real Betis with a right-footed shot from a free kick, finding the top left corner of the net.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Betis: Chimy Ávila is coming off, and Aitor Ruibal is taking his place.
73
Update Update
Valentín Gómez from Real Betis has earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
73
Update Update
Alejandro Rego from Athletic Club committed a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Unai Gómez replaces Oihan Sancet.
71
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Iñaki Williams from Athletic Club attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
69
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Abde Ezzalzouli from Real Betis takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Unai Simón from Athletic Club makes a save, directing the ball to the left corner. The assist comes from Pablo Fornals.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club, following a deflection off Héctor Bellerín.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alex Berenguer from Athletic Club takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Mikel Jauregizar replaces Gorka Guruzeta.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Athletic Club: Mikel Vesga replaces Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Betis: Cédric Bakambu is coming on to replace Cucho Hernández.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Betis after Dani Vivian allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Yuri Berchiche from Athletic Club committed a handball foul.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Cucho Hernández of Real Betis takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar. The assist came from Sergi Altimira.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Abde Ezzalzouli from Real Betis took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Valentín Gómez.
57
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Aitor Ruibal from Real Betis took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the right following a corner kick.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Betis after Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta allowed it.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after a play that resulted in Pau López giving up the ball.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Pau López allowed the ball to go out of play.
51
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Gorka Guruzeta has been caught in an offside position.
50
Update Update
Sofyan Amrabat from Real Betis committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club earned a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Íñigo Lekue from Athletic Club committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Abde Ezzalzouli from Real Betis has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Offside call against Athletic Club. Iñaki Williams is caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
VAR Review: Athletic Club Goal - Oihan Sancet.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cucho Hernández from Real Betis attempts a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected and blocked.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Betis: Sergi Altimira comes on to replace Marc Roca.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Betis: Pablo Fornals comes on to replace Antony.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Betis: Héctor Bellerín comes on to replace Ángel Ortiz.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Athletic Club leading Real Betis 2-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Athletic Club leading Real Betis 2-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
43
Update Update
Marc Roca of Real Betis was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
43
Update Update
Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta from Athletic Club committed a foul.
43
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Abde Ezzalzouli from Real Betis takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
40
Update Update
Diego Llorente from Real Betis has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Gorka Guruzeta from Athletic Club committed a foul.
38
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Betis after Gorka Guruzeta allowed the ball to go out of play.
37
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Betis after Íñigo Lekue's defensive play.
35
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Yuri Berchiche from Athletic Club takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
32
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte from Athletic Club was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Aitor Ruibal from Real Betis committed a foul.
30
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Antony from Real Betis took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Aitor Ruibal during a quick counterattack.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Abde Ezzalzouli allowed the ball to go out.
28
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Yuri Berchiche has been flagged for being offside.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Athletic Club takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Real Betis. Dani Vivian scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, placing it perfectly in the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Iñaki Williams.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Ángel Ortiz from Real Betis.
20
Update Update
Dani Vivian from Athletic Club has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Aitor Ruibal from Real Betis committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Offside call against Athletic Club. Iñaki Williams is caught in an offside position.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Yuri Berchiche from Athletic Club attempted a left-footed shot from over 35 yards but failed to hit the target. The assist was provided by Alejandro Rego.
10
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Abde Ezzalzouli of Real Betis attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The chance was set up by Antony, who delivered a cross after a quick counterattack.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Athletic Club after Ángel Ortiz allowed the ball to go out.
5
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alex Berenguer from Athletic Club takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Iñaki Williams.
4
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Iñaki Williams from Athletic Club takes a left-footed shot from close range, but Pau López, the goalkeeper for Real Betis, makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
4
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds. Oihan Sancet from Athletic Club takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Pau López from Real Betis makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Yuri Berchiche.
3
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Athletic Club after Ángel Ortiz allowed the ball to go out.
3
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Aymeric Laporte of Athletic Club attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Alex Berenguer, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Betis exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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