Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Gewiss Stadium Sat, 2 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Atalanta ATA
0 – 0
Genoa GEN
Full Time Sat, 2 May 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In a frustrating goalless draw at the Gewiss Stadium, Atalanta dominated possession with 60% against Genoa's 40% but couldn't find a breakthrough, ending 0-0. The halftime score sat evenly at 0-0, reflecting a first half of few chances. As the stronger side, Atalanta pressed forward relentlessly, yet Genoa's compact defense and timely interventions thwarted every attack. Clear-cut opportunities eluded the hosts, who peppered the Genoa goal without reward. Genoa, resilient on the counter, absorbed pressure masterfully, securing a valuable point. This stalemate represents a significant structural deviation for Atalanta, underperforming their favored status markedly. Both teams displayed discipline, with no red cards disrupting flow. Possession stats belied the scoreline, underscoring Genoa's tactical discipline in neutralizing Atalanta's flair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 77.9% structural deviation occurred as Atalanta underperformed expectations in the 0-0 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to null expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market projections misaligned with the unexpected 0-0 draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from null data values.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary measures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Pezzuto

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Colarossi

1st Assistant

D. Yoshikawa

2nd Assistant

N. Turrini

4th Official

Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cagliari Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 83 D
Juventus Rank: 84 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Inter Rank: 91 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: 82 L
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Sassuolo Rank: 74 W
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Udinese Rank: 76 L
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 11 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atalanta
63.27%
Draw
22.11%
Away Genoa
14.62%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atalanta
+58.34%
Draw
-69.73%
Genoa
+11.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.27
74.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atalanta
Genoa
Power Score
84.27
74.63
League Position
7
14
Global Rank
39
116

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atalanta Genoa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atalanta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genoa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.67
20.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.50
40.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atalanta +2.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Genoa -2.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atalanta
Genoa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atalanta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genoa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atalanta Genoa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atalanta Genoa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atalanta
Genoa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atalanta
vs
Genoa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atalanta Genoa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atalanta 0.31
Genoa 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atalanta Genoa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atalanta 0.00
Genoa 0.00
Atalanta
Genoa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATA had peak pressure around 65'.
  • GEN started the game with stronger pressure.
ATA Pressure GEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATA reached the top pressure at 65' (86.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atalanta ATA Home
34 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
16
Wins
7
11
Draws
11
7
Losses
16
Goals
59
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
59
+21
Goal Difference
-21

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
Substitution
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
H. Ahanor
Nigeria
69 H. Ahanor
D. Zappacosta
Substitution
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
M. de Roon
Substitution
Netherlands
15 M. de Roon
É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
Brazil
13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
N. Zalewski
Poland
59 N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
Substitution
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
G. Scamacca
Substitution
Italy
9 G. Scamacca
N. Krstović
Montenegro
90 N. Krstović
Pitch
J. Bijlow
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
L. Skiri Oestigaard
Norway
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
S. Sabelli
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Sabelli
M. Frendrup
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
Substitution
Brazil
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
J. Ekhator
Substitution
Nigeria
21 J. Ekhator
V. Carvalho Oliveira
Substitution
Portugal
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
L. Colombo
Substitution
Italy
29 L. Colombo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gewiss Stadium
Capacity :
23439
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivano Pezzuto
Valerio Colarossi
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Niccolò Turrini

Statistics

Possession
ATA
59%
GEN
41%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 2
68 Dangerous attacks 24
60 Possession 40
6 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
17 Dribble Attempts 14
8 Goal Kicks 10
20 Successful Headers 15
8 Successful Dribbles 5
35 Throwins 17
56 Ball Safe 75
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
15 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

121 Attacks 77
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

47 Long Passes 66
23 Successful Long Passes 22
81 Successful Passes Percentage 69
15 Key Passes 6
380 Successful Passes 223
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
471 Passes 322

Defensive

14 Interceptions 16
2 Saves 7
55 Duels Won 52
17 Tackles 18

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
20 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.07
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.95
4
Isak Hien
Isak Hien
Defender57'
6.81
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
7
69
Honest Ahanor
Honest Ahanor Defender
6.64
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
6.97
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
6.95
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder76'
7
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder
6.97
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
6.86
6
Yunus Musah
Yunus Musah
Midfielder85'
7.11
9
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
7.03
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori
Attacker57'
7.05
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
7.18
10
Lazar Samardžić
Lazar Samardžić
Midfielder76'
6.85
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
7.1
Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.82
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
7.09
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
6.84
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
6.56
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Midfielder
6.68
10
Junior Messias
Junior Messias
Attacker69'
6.87
20
Stefano Sabelli
Stefano Sabelli Midfielder
6.63
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín
Defender86'
6.96
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
6.87
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.59
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Attacker
6.77
73
Patrizio Masini
Patrizio Masini
Midfielder86'
6.8
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator Attacker
6.61
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Midfielder70'
7.01
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Attacker
6.7
18
Caleb Ekuban
Caleb Ekuban
Attacker56'
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Patrizio Masini → Vitinha
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Aarón Martín → Stefano Sabelli
9th Substitution
Event
Yunus Musah → Davide Zappacosta
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Nikola Krstović
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Mario Pašalić → Marten de Roon
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Lazar Samardžić → Charles De Ketelaere
7th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Ruslan Malinovskyi → Jeff Ekhator
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Junior Messias → Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
4th Substitution
Event
Éderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Isak Hien → Berat Djimsiti
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Giacomo Raspadori → Gianluca Scamacca
3rd Substitution
57'
56'
Event
Caleb Ekuban → Lorenzo Colombo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Zalewski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giorgio Scalvini takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mario Pasalic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Yunus Musah comes on for Davide Zappacosta.
85
Update Update
Aaron Caricol comes on for Stefano Sabelli.
85
Update Update
Patrizio Masini replaces Vitor Oliveira.
79
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nikola Krstovic receives a yellow card.
76
Update Update
Mario Pasalic replaces Marten de Roon.
76
Update Update
Lazar Samardzic comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
75
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini's header is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
75
Update Update
Isak Hien's header is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Zalewski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori's right-footed shot is blocked.
70
Update Update
Ruslan Malinovskyi comes on for Jeff Ekhator.
69
Update Update
Junior Messias replaces Alexsandro Amorim.
66
Attempt Attempt
Davide Zappacosta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco.
63
Attempt Attempt
Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Isak Hien is on, and Berat Djimsiti is off.
57
Update Update
Giacomo Raspadori comes on for Gianluca Scamacca.
56
Update Update
Caleb Ekuban is on, and Lorenzo Colombo is off.
51
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Colombo's left-footed shot is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Honest Ahanor takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jeff Ekhator takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Colombo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Colombo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere's left-footed shot is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Leo Skiri Ostigard attempts a header but misses the shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Oliveira's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Oliveira's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexsandro Amorim receives a yellow card.
11
Attempt Attempt
Honest Ahanor takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Oliveira's left-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Atalanta's 0-0 draw with Genoa exposed vulnerabilities despite clear superiority in possession and strength. Failing to capitalize on 60% control highlights a need for sharper finishing against stubborn defenses. This significant deviation from projections, where Atalanta were heavily favored, boosts Genoa's survival hopes while denting the hosts' momentum. With efficiencies holding steady and no disruptive events like reds, the result stems from Genoa's organized resilience. Atalanta must refine their attack to avoid such frustrating outcomes in tight fixtures ahead.

Atalanta vs Genoa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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