Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Gewiss Stadium Sun, 17 May - 4:00 PM
Serie A
Atalanta ATA
0 Winner 1
Bologna BOL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 4:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
|
Goal
Riccardo Orsolini - 78'

CONTEXT

Atalanta hosted Bologna in a match that concluded with a 0-1 scoreline after a goalless first half. Atalanta held 45 percent possession while Bologna controlled 55 percent. Expected goals stood at 0.9 for the home side and 0.83 for the visitors. The stronger team on paper failed to secure the result as Bologna claimed victory. No red cards were issued to either side. The halftime score remained level at 0-0. Outcome diverged from underlying metrics with a notable deviation favoring the away team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Atalanta 0-1 Bologna. Bologna showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Final result did not align with the close expected goals of 0.9 to 0.83.
  • Market alignment: Outcome showed no alignment with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals indicated a tightly contested match with minimal differential of 0.07.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the flow beyond standard play in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to team structures or dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Perenzoni

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Zanotti

4th Official

Italy

D. Garzelli

1st Assistant

Italy

G. Grasso

2nd Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
VS
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 86 D
Juventus Rank: 84 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Napoli Rank: 86 W
Cagliari Rank: 71 D
Roma Rank: 83 L
Juventus Rank: 84 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 7 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atalanta
54.17%
Draw
23.8%
Away Bologna
22.04%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atalanta
+53.98%
Draw
+19.22%
Bologna
-73.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.99
79.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atalanta
Bologna
Power Score
83.99
79.21
League Position
7
8
Global Rank
38
63

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atalanta Bologna

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bologna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atalanta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bologna
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.11
22.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.73
26.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atalanta +0.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Bologna -0.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atalanta
Bologna
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atalanta
vs
Bologna
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atalanta Bologna
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atalanta Bologna
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Atalanta
Bologna
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atalanta
vs
Bologna
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atalanta Bologna
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atalanta 0.29
Bologna 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atalanta Bologna
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atalanta 0.02
Bologna 0.00
Atalanta
Bologna
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOL had peak pressure around 80'.
  • BOL started the game with stronger pressure.
ATA Pressure BOL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOL reached the top pressure at 80' (84.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atalanta ATA Home
34 matches
Bologna BOL Away
Match Record
18
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
18
Goals
48
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
48
+17
Goal Difference
-17

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:04:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
H. Ahanor
Nigeria
69 H. Ahanor
D. Zappacosta
Substitution
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
M. de Roon
Substitution
Netherlands
15 (C) M. de Roon
É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
Brazil
13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
N. Zalewski
Substitution
Poland
59 N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
Substitution
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
G. Raspadori
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Raspadori
N. Krstović
Montenegro
90 N. Krstović
Pitch
Ł. Skorupski
Poland
1 Ł. Skorupski
J. Miranda González
Spain
33 J. Miranda González
T. Heggem
Norway
14 T. Heggem
E. Fauske Helland
Norway
5 E. Fauske Helland
J. Neto Lopes
Portugal
17 J. Neto Lopes
T. Pobega
Substitution
Italy
4 T. Pobega
R. Freuler
Switzerland
8 R. Freuler
L. Ferguson
Scotland
19 (C) L. Ferguson
J. Rowe
Substitution
England
11 J. Rowe
S. Castro
Substitution
Argentina
9 S. Castro
F. Bernardeschi
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Bernardeschi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gewiss Stadium
Capacity :
23439
Attendance :
22140
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Zanotti
Daniele Perenzoni
Dario Garzelli
Gianluca Grasso

Statistics

Possession
ATA
47%
BOL
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 5
35 Dangerous attacks 50
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 5
8 Successful Dribbles 11
11 Dribble Attempts 22
12 Throwins 24
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Successful Headers 10
4 Goal Attempts 7
78 Ball Safe 106
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

84 Attacks 99
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

8 Key Passes 8
335 Successful Passes 396
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
17 Successful Long Passes 22
44 Long Passes 47
401 Passes 479
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

26 Tackles 8
4 Saves 1
48 Duels Won 43
19 Interceptions 10

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
10 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

17 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.08
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.99
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
6.76
69
Honest Ahanor
Honest Ahanor Defender
6.76
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
7.23
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon (C) Midfielder
6.41
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder63'
6.76
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder
6.96
6
Yunus Musah
Yunus Musah
Midfielder63'
6.63
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
6.92
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac
Defender88'
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
7.41
5
Mitchel Bakker
Mitchel Bakker
Defender82'
6.45
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori Attacker
6.59
7
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Attacker64'
6.61
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
6.75
Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukasz Skorupski
Lukasz Skorupski Goalkeeper
7.12
5
Eivind Helland
Eivind Helland Defender
7.12
14
Torbjørn Heggem
Torbjørn Heggem Defender
7.14
17
João Mário
João Mário Defender
7.07
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Defender
7.52
4
Tommaso Pobega
Tommaso Pobega Midfielder
6.71
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro
Midfielder69'
6.79
8
Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler Midfielder
6.56
19
Lewis Ferguson
Lewis Ferguson (C) Midfielder
6.82
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro Attacker
6.56
24
Thijs Dallinga
Thijs Dallinga
Attacker69'
6.46
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi Attacker
6.85
7
Riccardo Orsolini
Riccardo Orsolini
Attacker69'
7.39
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe Attacker
7.16
30
Benja Domínguez
Benja Domínguez
Attacker88'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sead Kolasinac → Davide Zappacosta
9th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Benja Domínguez → Jonathan Rowe
8th Substitution
Event
Mitchel Bakker → Charles De Ketelaere
7th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Riccardo Orsolini
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Mario Pašalić
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
69'
Event
Thijs Dallinga → Santiago Castro
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Riccardo Orsolini → Federico Bernardeschi
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Nikola Moro → Tommaso Pobega
5th Substitution
Event
Kamaldeen Sulemana → Giacomo Raspadori
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Yunus Musah → Nicola Zalewski
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Mario Pašalić → Marten de Roon
2nd Substitution
63'
52'
Event
Tommaso Pobega
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Orsolini takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
88
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac comes on for Davide Zappacosta.
88
Update Update
Benjamin Dominguez replaces Jonathan Rowe.
83
Attempt Attempt
Davide Zappacosta takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Update Update
Mitchel Bakker comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
78
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Orsolini scores with a left-footed shot.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Pasalic receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kamal Deen Sulemana attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Update Update
Riccardo Orsolini replaces Federico Bernardeschi.
69
Update Update
Thijs Dallinga is on, and Santiago Thomas Castro is off.
69
Update Update
Nikola Moro comes on for Tommaso Pobega.
67
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Kamal Deen Sulemana comes on for Giacomo Raspadori.
64
Update Update
Yunus Musah comes on for Nicola Zalewski.
63
Update Update
Mario Pasalic replaces Marten de Roon.
62
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori has a left-footed shot that is blocked.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommaso Pobega receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Thomas Castro takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Joao Mario Neto Lopes takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Rowe takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Zalewski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Rowe's right-footed shot is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bernardeschi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Berat Djimsiti attempts a header but misses the shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Eivind Fauske Helland attempts a header but misses the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Atalanta 0-1 Bologna. Structural assessment: Bologna exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Atalanta vs Bologna preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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