Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Villa Park Thu, 7 May - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Aston Villa AVL
4 Winner 0
Nottingham Forest NFO
Full Time Thu, 7 May 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 1
John McGinn - 80', 77'
Emiliano Buendía - 58' (P)
Ollie Watkins - 36'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest. The result saw Aston Villa take the points. Aston Villa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match resulted in a significant 44.7% structural deviation favoring Aston Villa.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was true, consistent with the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluated without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or other events notably altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Nyberg

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Beigi

1st Assistant

Sweden

A. Söderkvist

2nd Assistant

Sweden

R. Obrenović

4th Official

Slovenia

League averages

Europa League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 26.25
Yellow cards / match 4.36
Red cards / match 0.29
Penalties / match 0.32
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 L
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Bologna Rank: 78 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Porto Rank: 87 W
Porto Rank: 87 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
55.33%
Draw
25.01%
Away Nottingham Forest
19.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aston Villa
-39.79%
Draw
+21.31%
Nottingham Forest
+18.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91.01
87.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
91.01
87.73
League Position
2
13
Global Rank
10
20

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Nottingham Forest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.12
17.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.45
39.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aston Villa +2.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Nottingham Forest -2.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aston Villa Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aston Villa Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aston Villa
vs
Nottingham Forest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aston Villa Nottingham Forest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aston Villa 0.46
Nottingham Forest 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aston Villa Nottingham Forest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aston Villa 0.00
Nottingham Forest 0.10
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AVL had peak pressure around 27'.
  • AVL started the game with stronger pressure.
AVL Pressure NFO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AVL reached the top pressure at 27' (88.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
15 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
7
Goals
28
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
28
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:01:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
P. Francisco Torres
Substitution
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
Substitution
Sweden
3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
J. McGinn
Substitution
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
M. Rogers
Substitution
England
27 M. Rogers
E. Buendía
Substitution
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
O. Watkins
England
11 O. Watkins
Pitch
S. Ortega Moreno
Germany
27 S. Ortega Moreno
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
F. Rodrigues
Substitution
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
J. da Cunha Filho
Substitution
Brazil
23 J. da Cunha Filho
J. Mcatee
Substitution
England
24 J. Mcatee
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
N. Domínguez
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Substitution
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
I. da Cruz
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz
C. Wood
Substitution
New Zealand
11 C. Wood

General Information

Date & Time :
May 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 1
Stadium :
Villa Park
Capacity :
42640
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Glenn Nyberg
Mahbod Beigi
Andreas Söderkvist
Rade Obrenović

Statistics

Possession
AVL
51%
NFO
49%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
18 Shots 7
39 Dangerous attacks 31
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
4 Goal Kicks 12
16 Dribble Attempts 5
14 Throwins 12
58 Ball Safe 56
19 Successful Headers 14
8 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Injuries 1
3 Assists 0
13 Goal Attempts 5
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

86 Attacks 101
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

36 Long Passes 52
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
14 Successful Long Passes 23
377 Passes 360
315 Successful Passes 297
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
13 Key Passes 6

Defensive

47 Duels Won 43
8 Interceptions 17
8 Tackles 14
2 Saves 6

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 2
12 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
7.12
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.7
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
7.08
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.75
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.83
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
Midfielder90'
7.02
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Midfielder
6.63
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde
Midfielder74'
6.75
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Midfielder
2
6.95
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker90'
6.89
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.23
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
6.88
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho
Attacker86'
6.85
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
7.04
5
Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings
Defender90'
6.99
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.81
Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
6.94
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
7.04
4
Morato
Morato Defender
6.89
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa
Attacker71'
6.76
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha Defender
6.68
5
Murillo
Murillo
Defender88'
6.76
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.95
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.18
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
7.02
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
7.14
61
Jimmy Sinclair
Jimmy Sinclair
Midfielder88'
6.31
24
James McAtee
James McAtee Midfielder
7.17
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates
Midfielder46'
6.91
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.79
20
Lorenzo Lucca
Lorenzo Lucca
Attacker71'
6.48
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
7.1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leon Bailey → John McGinn
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Douglas Luiz → Pau Torres
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Tyrone Mings → Morgan Rogers
10th Substitution
90'
88'
Event
Murillo → Jair Cunha 
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Jimmy Sinclair → Omari Hutchinson 
7th Substitution
Event
Jadon Sancho → Emiliano Buendía
5th Substitution
86'
Event
John McGinn
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
80'
Event
John McGinn
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
Lamare Bogarde → Victor Lindelöf
4th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
Dilane Bakwa → Morato
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Lorenzo Lucca → Chris Wood 
3rd Substitution
Event
Emiliano Buendía
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
58'
Event
Pau Torres
Penalty awarded
56'
46'
Event
Ryan Yates  → James McAtee
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Jair Cunha 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ollie Watkins
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
36'
18'
Event
Morato
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Leon Bailey replaces John McGinn.
90
Substitution Substitution
Douglas Luiz Soares de Paulo is substituted for Morgan Rogers.
90
Update Update
Tyrone Mings is on, and Pau Torres is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Yates takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Yates takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Lorenzo Lucca attempts a header but misses the target.
88
Update Update
Murillo Santiago Costa dos Santos is on, and Jair Paula da Cunha Filho is off.
88
Update Update
On comes Jimmy Sinclair, off goes Omari Hutchinson.
86
Update Update
Jadon Sancho comes on for Emiliano Buendia.
80
Attempt Attempt
John McGinn scores with a left-footed shot.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! John McGinn scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Ollie Watkins.
77
Attempt Attempt
John McGinn takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
74
Update Update
Lamare Bogarde comes on for Victor Nilsson-Lindelof.
72
Attempt Attempt
Emiliano Buendia takes a left-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Lorenzo Lucca replaces Chris Wood.
71
Substitution Substitution
Dilane Bakwa comes on for Felipe Rodrigues Da Silva, and Morato is also substituted.
70
Attempt Attempt
Chris Wood takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Rogers takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz attempts a header but misses the shot.
62
Attempt Attempt
John McGinn takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
John McGinn takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded for Pau Torres.
55
Attempt Attempt
Pau Torres takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Ryan Yates replaces James Mcatee.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jair Paula da Cunha Filho receives a yellow card.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ollie Watkins scores, making it 1-0.
36
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins scores with a left-footed shot.
34
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Cash takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Youri Tielemans takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Dominguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins takes a header, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Youri Tielemans takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
21
Attempt Attempt
Emiliano Buendia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Felipe Rodrigues Da Silva of Morato.
15
Attempt Attempt
Emiliano Buendia takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
13
Update Update
Emiliano Buendia's header is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Ollie Watkins takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Pau Torres takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Omari Hutchinson takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Aston Villa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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