Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Fri, 6 Mar - 2:07 PM
Premier League
Aston Villa AVL
1 Winner 4
Chelsea CHE
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:07 PM
Douglas Luiz - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
João Pedro - 64', 45+6', 35'
Cole Palmer - 55'

CONTEXT

The match between Aston Villa and Chelsea has finished with a full-time score of Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 4. The visitors established an early advantage, going into the halftime break with a 2-1 lead before pulling further away in the second half. Pre-match market expectations were tightly contested, giving Chelsea a 37.8% chance of victory, Aston Villa a 35.4% chance, and a 26.8% probability of a draw. Because the visitors were the slight betting favorites, the final outcome was fully market-aligned. However, since Aston Villa entered as the nominally stronger team, Chelsea’s dominant victory represented a significant deviation from baseline expectations, resulting in a 62.2% deviation level for the away side. Chelsea controlled the tempo of the game, maintaining 57% of the possession compared to Villa's 43%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning outcome consistency with xG cannot be determined. Regardless, the efficiency shift was firmly in line with the final result, as Chelsea maximized their opportunities while Villa fell short. Finally, the match was contested cleanly, with zero red cards issued to either team, leaving the result unaffected by major disciplinary events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Chelsea showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Gillett

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Meredith

2nd Assistant

S. Barrott

4th Official

N. Davies

1st Assistant

Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: D
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
West Ham United Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Aston Villa Rank: L
Newcastle United Rank: D
Everton Rank: W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Leeds United Rank: L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 13 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
35.41%
Draw
26.81%
Away Chelsea
37.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.62
55.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Power Score
58.62
55.17
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Chelsea

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.12
29.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.56
25.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aston Villa -0.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Chelsea +0.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
Chelsea
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aston Villa
vs
Chelsea
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aston Villa Chelsea
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aston Villa Chelsea
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Aston Villa
Chelsea
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
12 matches
Chelsea CHE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
4
Goals
13
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
13
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
1.05
xG
3.03
3.03
xGA
1.05

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:19:51+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:07 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
Villa Park
Capacity :
42640
Attendance :
42084
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jarred Gillett
Steve Meredith
Samuel Barrott
Neil Davies

Statistics

Possession
AVL
44%
CHE
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
3 Big Chances Created 5
6 Shots 14
36 Dangerous attacks 37
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

16 Throwins 20
6 Successful Headers 5
1 Assists 4
8 Dribble Attempts 11
2 Successful Dribbles 6
84 Ball Safe 95
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
7 Goal Attempts 11
3 Goal Kicks 6
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Injuries 3

Attacking

61 Attacks 83
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

371 Successful Passes 515
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
431 Passes 565
86 Successful Passes Percentage 91
18 Successful Long Passes 13
32 Long Passes 28
7 Key Passes 13

Defensive

7 Interceptions 9
4 Saves 3
11 Tackles 15

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 19
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 9

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Liam Delap → João Pedro
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Andrey Santos → Cole Palmer
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Tosin Adarabioyo → Wesley Fofana
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Marc Cucurella → Enzo Fernández
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Roméo Lavia → Malo Gusto
6th Substitution
Event
Tammy Abraham → Ollie Watkins
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Ollie Watkins
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
64'
Event
João Pedro
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Ross Barkley → Douglas Luiz
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Jadon Sancho → Emiliano Buendía
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Alysson → Leon Bailey
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Morgan Rogers
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
58'
58'
Event
Enzo Fernández
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Cole Palmer
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
54'
Event
João Pedro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Lamare Bogarde → Matty Cash
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Event
João Pedro
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Ollie Watkins
Goal disallowed
42'
35'
Event
João Pedro
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Matty Cash
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Douglas Luiz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 4.
90
Update Update
Trevoh Chalobah from Chelsea committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ian Maatsen from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Jadon Sancho of Aston Villa has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Liam Delap from Chelsea committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Tammy Abraham of Aston Villa heads the ball and strikes the crossbar from the center of the penalty area, with Ross Barkley providing the assist.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Andrey Santos replaces Cole Palmer.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Andrey Santos comes on to replace Cole Palmer.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jadon Sancho.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Liam Delap comes on to replace João Pedro.
82
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Alysson Edward from Aston Villa took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went off target.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Trevoh Chalobah allowed the ball to go out.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Marc Cucurella comes on to replace Enzo Fernández.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Tosin Adarabioyo comes on to replace Wesley Fofana due to an injury.
75
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Roméo Lavia comes on to replace Malo Gusto.
73
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Wesley Fofana from Chelsea.
73
Update Update
Lamare Bogarde from Aston Villa committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Alejandro Garnacho of Chelsea has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Tammy Abraham is coming on to replace Ollie Watkins.
71
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. João Pedro from Chelsea attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
69
Update Update
Offside call against Chelsea. Alejandro Garnacho has been flagged for being offside.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Amadou Onana committed a foul on an Aston Villa player.
66
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 4. João Pedro scores for Chelsea with a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Jadon Sancho comes on to replace Emiliano Buendía.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Alysson Edward replaces Leon Bailey.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Ross Barkley comes on to replace Douglas Luiz.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after a defensive play by Malo Gusto.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Morgan Rogers committed a foul against Aston Villa.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Enzo Fernández of Chelsea has been shown a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Malo Gusto from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 3. Cole Palmer from Chelsea scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the net after a quick counterattack.
54
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Ian Maatsen from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
João Pedro of Chelsea has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
54
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Amadou Onana from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
53
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa committed a foul.
49
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it sails over the goal.
48
Update Update
Malo Gusto commits a foul for Chelsea.
48
Update Update
Ian Maatsen of Aston Villa earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 2. João Pedro scores for Chelsea with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Enzo Fernández, who delivered a perfectly timed through ball.
45
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 2.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea committed a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jorrel Hato of Chelsea attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
45
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Amadou Onana from Aston Villa.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Tyrone Mings allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
Leon Bailey from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Lamare Bogarde comes on to replace Matty Cash, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 2.
44
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea earned a free kick in an offensive position.
42
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed - Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea.
41
Update Update
GOAL DISALLOWED AFTER VAR REVIEW: Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa finds the back of the net, but the goal is canceled following a VAR check.
41
Update Update
Aston Villa has been called for offside. Ollie Watkins is positioned beyond the last defender.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Ezri Konsa allowed the ball to go out.
39
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Trevon Chalobah from Chelsea committed a foul.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
35
Update Update
Match temporarily halted due to an injury to Matty Cash from Aston Villa.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 1. João Pedro scores for Chelsea with a right-footed shot from close range, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Malo Gusto.
34
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Filip Jörgensen from Chelsea makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Ian Maatsen.
32
Update Update
Matty Cash from Aston Villa committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Alejandro Garnacho of Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matty Cash from Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Filip Jörgensen allowed the ball to go out.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Filip Jörgensen allowed the ball to go out.
30
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Filip Jörgensen from Chelsea makes a great save, denying the effort aimed at the top center of the goal. The setup for the shot came from Emiliano Buendía, who delivered a precise through ball.
30
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Chelsea after Emiliano Martínez allowed the ball to go out.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Reece James from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets intercepted. The assist came from Alejandro Garnacho, who delivered a cross.
29
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Enzo Fernández.
25
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
24
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Chelsea's goalkeeper, Filip Jörgensen, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal, assisted by Emiliano Martínez.
24
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Enzo Fernández from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the heart of the penalty area. However, Emiliano Martínez, the Aston Villa goalkeeper, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Alejandro Garnacho.
24
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Wesley Fofana from Chelsea.
22
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Wesley Fofana from Chelsea.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Ezri Konsa allowed the ball to go out.
18
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Wesley Fofana from Chelsea.
17
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa.
17
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Emiliano Martínez.
15
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push is underway. Cole Palmer from Chelsea takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Emiliano Martínez from Aston Villa makes a great save, stopping the ball in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Alejandro Garnacho.
11
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
11
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
10
Update Update
Matty Cash from Aston Villa committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Aston Villa is caught offside. Emiliano Buendía is positioned ahead of the last defender.
8
Update Update
Jorrel Hato from Chelsea committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a play that resulted in Ian Maatsen giving it away.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Douglas Luiz allowed the ball to go out.
6
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. João Pedro from Chelsea heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
5
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
5
Update Update
Amadou Onana from Aston Villa committed a foul.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Chelsea. Douglas Luiz fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, sending the ball straight into the center of the net. The assist comes from Leon Bailey.
1
Update Update
Offside call against Chelsea. Malo Gusto has been caught offside.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Tyrone Mings allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Chelsea exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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