Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Emirates Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Arsenal ARS
1 Winner 0
Newcastle United NEW
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Eberechi Eze - 9'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Arsenal clinched a 1-0 victory against Newcastle United at home, mirroring the halftime scoreline of 1-0. Despite controlling just 45% possession, Arsenal's resolute defense and sharp finishing secured the points against a possession-heavy Newcastle side holding 55%. The Gunners, deemed the stronger team pre-match, delivered a performance with minimal structural deviation of 3.9%, aligning closely with expectations. No red cards disrupted play, and the second half saw no major tactical adjustments from either side. Arsenal's efficiency stayed in line, thwarting Newcastle's attempts to equalize. This gritty win underscores Arsenal's ability to grind out results even when not dominating the ball, preserving their strong form in the league. The outcome reinforced their status as favorites without dramatic shifts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal's 1-0 win featured minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events like adjustments or reds altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Barrott

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Wood

1st Assistant

W. Smith

2nd Assistant

S. Martin

4th Official

Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
Everton Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: W
Chelsea Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
Crystal Palace Rank: L
Sunderland Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
Everton Rank: L
35
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
35 - 9 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Newcastle United
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arsenal
+3.7%
Draw
-3.59%
Newcastle United
-0.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.7
21.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Newcastle United
Power Score
31.7
21.45
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Newcastle United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Newcastle United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.22
27.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.73
30.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arsenal +0.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Newcastle United -0.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Newcastle United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Newcastle United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arsenal Newcastle United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arsenal Newcastle United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Newcastle United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arsenal
vs
Newcastle United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arsenal Newcastle United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arsenal 0.21
Newcastle United 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arsenal Newcastle United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arsenal 0.00
Newcastle United 0.02
Arsenal
Newcastle United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARS had peak pressure around 11'.
  • ARS started the game with stronger pressure.
ARS Pressure NEW Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARS reached the top pressure at 11' (93.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
53 matches
Newcastle United NEW Away
Match Record
35
Wins
9
9
Draws
9
9
Losses
35
Goals
92
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
92
+58
Goal Difference
-58

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:06:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
B. White
England
4 B. White
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
P. Hincapié Reyna
Ecuador
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
M. Ødegaard
Norway
8 M. Ødegaard
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Substitution
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
England
41 D. Rice
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
29 K. Havertz
E. Eze
Substitution
England
10 E. Eze
Pitch
N. Pope
England
1 N. Pope
D. Burn
England
33 D. Burn
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
L. Miley
England
67 L. Miley
S. Tonali
Italy
8 S. Tonali
J. Ramsey
England
41 J. Ramsey
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Substitution
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
J. Willock
Substitution
England
28 J. Willock
J. Murphy
Substitution
England
23 J. Murphy
W. Osula
Substitution
Denmark
18 W. Osula

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Emirates Stadium
Capacity :
60704
Attendance :
60204
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Samuel Barrott
Tim Wood
Wade Smith
Steve Martin

Statistics

Possession
ARS
46%
NEW
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
52 Dangerous attacks 45
45 Possession 55
7 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 2
6 Goal Kicks 8
11 Throwins 11
5 Goal Attempts 8
14 Dribble Attempts 9
68 Ball Safe 82
7 Successful Headers 16
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 4
2 Injuries 1
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
95 Attacks 92

Possession

12 Successful Long Passes 20
320 Successful Passes 410
397 Passes 480
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
44 Long Passes 48
81 Successful Passes Percentage 85
11 Key Passes 10

Defensive

38 Duels Won 46
10 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 3
15 Tackles 16

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 5
13 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

13 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
6.76
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
6.89
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
6.91
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
6.86
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
7.21
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Midfielder
6.97
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
7.02
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Defender81'
6.51
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.36
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Attacker
7.43
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli
Attacker53'
6.59
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Attacker
6.79
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka
Attacker81'
7.21
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Attacker
6.68
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres
Attacker34'
6.77
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Pope
Nick Pope Goalkeeper
6.83
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.89
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.98
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn Defender
6.63
67
Lewis Miley
Lewis Miley Defender
6.99
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
6.94
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy Midfielder
6.77
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes
Midfielder66'
6.7
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock Midfielder
6.62
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga
Attacker86'
6.62
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.33
27
Nick Woltemade
Nick Woltemade
Attacker75'
6.71
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Midfielder
6.64
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
6.68
9
Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa
Attacker66'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Declan Rice
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
86'
86'
Event
Anthony Elanga → Joe Willock
8th Substitution
Event
Bukayo Saka → Noni Madueke
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Myles Lewis-Skelly → Martín Zubimendi
7th Substitution
81'
75'
Event
Nick Woltemade → Bruno Guimarães
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Nick Pope
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Martinelli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
66'
Event
Harvey Barnes → Jacob Murphy
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Yoane Wissa → William Osula
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Dan Burn
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Martinelli → Eberechi Eze
2nd Substitution
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Viktor Gyökeres → Kai Havertz
1st Substitution
34'
Event
Eberechi Eze
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Anthony Elanga from Newcastle United wins a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Bukayo Saka of Arsenal.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Dan Burn of Newcastle United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Tonali's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jacob Ramsey provided the assist.
90
Corner Corner
Newcastle United win a corner after Myles Lewis-Skelly concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul by Piero Hincapié of Arsenal.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Arsenal winning 1-0 against Newcastle United.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal.
90
Update Update
Nick Woltemade of Newcastle United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Yoane Wissa of Newcastle United.
89
Update Update
Piero Hincapié wins a free kick for Arsenal in the defensive half.
87
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Nick Pope concedes.
87
Corner Corner
Martin Ødegaard's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Nick Pope. The attempt was assisted by Bukayo Saka.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Declan Rice from Arsenal receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Declan Rice for Arsenal.
86
Update Update
Dan Burn from Newcastle United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Anthony Elanga comes on for Joe Willock.
84
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyökeres has his right-footed shot from the right side of the box blocked. Martin Ødegaard provided the assist.
84
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Sven Botman concedes.
83
Attempt Attempt
Dan Burn's header from the center of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by David Raya. The attempt was assisted by Harvey Barnes with a cross.
82
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Nick Pope in the top center of the goal.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Myles Lewis-Skelly comes on for Martín Zubimendi.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Bukayo Saka comes on for Noni Madueke.
81
Attempt Attempt
Bukayo Saka's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
81
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Dan Burn concedes.
80
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Yoane Wissa of Newcastle United, who took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Nick Woltemade comes on for Bruno Guimarães.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nick Pope of Newcastle United receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Nick Pope of Newcastle United.
74
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal wins a free kick on the right wing.
73
Attempt Attempt
Martín Zubimendi's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal.
71
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal receives a yellow card for a foul.
70
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
68
Update Update
Foul by Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal.
68
Update Update
Bruno Guimarães from Newcastle United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
67
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal is caught offside.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Harvey Barnes comes on for Jacob Murphy.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Yoane Wissa comes on for William Osula.
65
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Tonali's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
64
Update Update
Jacob Murphy of Newcastle United commits a handball.
62
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Dan Burn concedes.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Piero Hincapié of Arsenal.
61
Update Update
Jacob Murphy from Newcastle United wins a free kick on the right wing.
60
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Sven Botman of Newcastle United.
58
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Martin Ødegaard provided the assist.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Dan Burn of Newcastle United.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dan Burn of Newcastle United receives a yellow card for a foul.
57
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres wins a free kick for Arsenal on the right wing.
55
Update Update
Arsenal is called offside as Piero Hincapié is caught in an offside position.
54
Update Update
Ben White from Arsenal wins a free kick on the right wing.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Dan Burn of Newcastle United.
54
Update Update
Dan Burn from Newcastle United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli comes on for Eberechi Eze due to an injury.
51
Update Update
Dan Burn of Newcastle United is caught offside.
51
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Eberechi Eze of Arsenal.
49
Update Update
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the right. The attempt was assisted by Piero Hincapié.
47
Update Update
William Osula of Newcastle United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Martín Zubimendi for Arsenal.
45
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães wins a free kick for Arsenal in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by William Osula of Newcastle United.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Arsenal leading Newcastle United 1-0.
45
Update Update
Foul by Viktor Gyökeres for Arsenal.
45
Update Update
Sven Botman wins a free kick for Newcastle United in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Arsenal 1, Newcastle United 0.
42
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Tonali's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Bruno Guimarães provided the assist.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba of Arsenal.
41
Update Update
Bruno Guimarães wins a free kick for Newcastle United in the attacking half.
38
Attempt Attempt
Dan Burn from Newcastle United misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Miley of Newcastle United.
36
Update Update
Piero Hincapié wins a free kick for Arsenal in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Bruno Guimarães wins a free kick for Newcastle United in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Foul by Declan Rice for Arsenal.
34
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Viktor Gyökeres comes on for Kai Havertz due to an injury.
32
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Kai Havertz from Arsenal.
31
Attempt Attempt
Joe Willock from Newcastle United misses the attempt, sending a right-footed shot from outside the box high and wide to the right. William Osula provided the assist.
30
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Tonali's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Tonali's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by David Raya.
29
Corner Corner
Newcastle United win a corner after William Saliba concedes.
28
Update Update
Eberechi Eze wins a free kick for Arsenal in the attacking half.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Bruno Guimarães of Newcastle United.
24
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jacob Ramsey from Newcastle United takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it goes to the right after a set piece situation.
23
Update Update
William Osula from Newcastle United wins a free kick on the left wing.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba of Arsenal.
23
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Noni Madueke from Arsenal has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the center of the goal by Nick Pope from Newcastle United. The assist was provided by Martín Zubimendi.
18
Attempt Attempt
Joe Willock's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by David Raya. The attempt was assisted by Jacob Ramsey.
16
Update Update
Sandro Tonali commits a handball for Newcastle United.
16
Update Update
Dan Burn's header from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by William Osula's cross.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by William Osula of Newcastle United.
14
Update Update
David Raya of Arsenal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arsenal lead 1-0 against Newcastle United. Eberechi Eze scores for Arsenal with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the top left corner, assisted by Kai Havertz after a corner.
9
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Malick Thiaw concedes.
8
Corner Corner
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal attempts a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses to the right. Martin Ødegaard provided the assist after a corner.
7
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Malick Thiaw concedes.
6
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Sandro Tonali concedes.
4
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimarães from Newcastle United misses with a right-footed shot from outside the box.

CONCLUSION

Arsenal's 1-0 triumph over Newcastle United highlighted their tactical discipline, holding firm despite lower possession. The minimal 3.9% deviation and market alignment affirm a predictable outcome for the home stronger side. Without xG data or disruptions, the match unfolded as a controlled affair, with Arsenal's halftime lead proving insurmountable. This result bolsters their campaign, showcasing resilience in tight contests. Newcastle's possession edge yielded nothing, exposing finishing woes. Overall, Arsenal's victory was a statement of consistency and defensive prowess.

Arsenal vs Newcastle United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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