Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Emirates Stadium Mon, 18 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Arsenal ARS
Versus
Burnley BUR
KICKOFF : Mon, 18 May - 7:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Arsenal host Burnley in Premier League (Regular Season) at Emirates Stadium. Domestically, Arsenal sit 1th in the table while Burnley are 19th. Power ranking favours Arsenal by 33.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arsenal's power score of 98.41 provides a 33.7-point advantage over Burnley's 64.75.
  • Form: Arsenal's form score stands at 27.61, towering over Burnley's 3.06.
  • Squad: Arsenal's squad leads the league at 1st place while Burnley's sits at 19th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Arsenal's superior power suggests strong transition dominance over Burnley.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable as xG is not enabled, using low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both teams.
  • Market: Arsenal 86.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 9.6% (Δ+0%) | Burnley 4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Burnley M. James Jackson
M. James Jackson
2.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.44
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 84 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Newcastle United Rank: 88 W
Manchester City Rank: 99 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 L
Everton Rank: 88 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Leeds United Rank: 86 L
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Fulham Rank: 86 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 4 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
86.42%
Draw
9.56%
Away Burnley
4.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
98.41
64.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Burnley
Power Score
98.41
64.75
League Position
1
19
Global Rank
3
81

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Burnley

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
23 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
17
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
17
Goals
44
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
44
+32
Goal Difference
-32

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:09:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
1 D. Raya Martin
C. Mosquera
3 C. Mosquera
W. Saliba
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
R. Calafiori
33 R. Calafiori
D. Rice
41 D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
7 B. Saka
E. Eze
10 E. Eze
L. Trossard
19 L. Trossard
V. Gyökeres
14 V. Gyökeres
Pitch
M. Weiß
13 M. Weiß
L. Pires Silva
23 L. Pires Silva
M. Esteve
5 M. Esteve
A. Tuanzebe
6 A. Tuanzebe
K. Walker
2 K. Walker
C. Ugochukwu
8 C. Ugochukwu
F. Morris Luís
16 F. Morris Luís
J. Anthony
11 J. Anthony
L. Foster
9 L. Foster
L. Tchaouna
17 L. Tchaouna
Z. Flemming
19 Z. Flemming

General Information

Date & Time :
May 18, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Emirates Stadium
Capacity :
60704
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Paul Tierney
Robert Jones

Expected Lineup

Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
6.79
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Centre Forward
6.81
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Right Back
6.93
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Left Back
7.21
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka Right Wing
7.21
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Attacking Midfield
7.43
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Left Wing
6.97
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Defensive Midfield
7.32
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly Defensive Midfield
6.56
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera Right Back
6.79
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori Left Back
6.88
Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

13
Max Weiß
Max Weiß Goalkeeper
6.85
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Centre Forward
6.84
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Right Back
6.54
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Left Back
6.66
6
Axel Tuanzebe
Axel Tuanzebe Right Back
6.53
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu Defensive Midfield
6.64
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster Attacking Midfield
6.59
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Left Wing
6.84
16
Florentino
Florentino Defensive Midfield
6.67
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Right Wing
6.6
23
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires Left Back
6.68

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Arsenal holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Arsenal a 33.7-point edge. External projection is Arsenal 86.4%, draw 9.6%, and Burnley 4%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Arsenal vs Burnley preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ