Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Emirates Stadium Mon, 18 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Arsenal ARS
1 Winner 0
Burnley BUR
Full Time Mon, 18 May 7:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Kai Havertz - 37'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Arsenal hosted Burnley in a league fixture that concluded with a 1-0 home win. The halftime score was 1-0 after Arsenal opened the scoring in the first half. Arsenal controlled 61 percent of possession while Burnley held 39 percent. No red cards were shown to players from either team during the contest. The stronger side Arsenal claimed the three points as the final result. Data indicated a moderate deviation level associated with Arsenal. Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall patterns and market alignment held true. Expected goals figures were unavailable from the recorded statistics.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal recorded a moderate structural deviation from typical patterns.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with established benchmarks throughout.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be assessed due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was confirmed as true based on available indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undetermined owing to null recorded values.
  • Event impact: The single goal proved decisive in securing the 1-0 outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with zero dismissals on record.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Tierney

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Jones

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.87
Yellow cards / match 3.38
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Burnley M. James Jackson
M. James Jackson
2.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.44
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 84 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Newcastle United Rank: 88 W
Manchester City Rank: 99 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 L
Everton Rank: 86 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Leeds United Rank: 86 L
Manchester City Rank: 99 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 L
Fulham Rank: 86 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
85.68%
Draw
10.09%
Away Burnley
4.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arsenal
-11.75%
Draw
+7.71%
Burnley
+4.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
98.38
64.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Burnley
Power Score
98.38
64.51
League Position
1
19
Global Rank
3
84

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Burnley

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burnley
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.64
16.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.03
26.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arsenal +1.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Burnley -1.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Burnley
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burnley
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arsenal Burnley
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arsenal Burnley
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Burnley
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arsenal
vs
Burnley
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arsenal Burnley
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arsenal 0.20
Burnley 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arsenal Burnley
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arsenal 0.00
Burnley 0.02
Arsenal
Burnley
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARS had peak pressure around 39'.
  • ARS started the game with stronger pressure.
ARS Pressure BUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARS reached the top pressure at 39' (66.95).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
23 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
17
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
17
Goals
44
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
44
+32
Goal Difference
-32

Data last updated: 2026-05-19T00:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
C. Mosquera
Spain
3 C. Mosquera
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
R. Calafiori
Substitution
Italy
33 R. Calafiori
M. Ødegaard
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Ødegaard
D. Rice
England
41 D. Rice
E. Eze
Substitution
England
10 E. Eze
B. Saka
England
7 B. Saka
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
29 K. Havertz
L. Trossard
Substitution
Belgium
19 L. Trossard
Pitch
M. Weiß
Germany
13 M. Weiß
L. Pires Silva
Brazil
23 L. Pires Silva
M. Esteve
Substitution
France
5 M. Esteve
A. Tuanzebe
England
6 A. Tuanzebe
K. Walker
England
2 K. Walker
C. Ugochukwu
Substitution
France
8 C. Ugochukwu
F. Morris Luís
Substitution
Portugal
16 F. Morris Luís
J. Anthony
England
11 J. Anthony
H. Mejbri
Substitution
Tunisia
28 H. Mejbri
L. Tchaouna
Substitution
France
17 L. Tchaouna
Z. Flemming
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming

General Information

Date & Time :
May 18, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Emirates Stadium
Capacity :
60704
Attendance :
60274
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Paul Tierney
Robert Jones

Statistics

Possession
ARS
58%
BUR
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 4
65 Dangerous attacks 25
61 Possession 39
3 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

65 Ball Safe 70
11 Successful Headers 10
11 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Goal Kicks 18
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
22 Throwins 10
9 Goal Attempts 4
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 61

Possession

44 Long Passes 59
510 Passes 325
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
440 Successful Passes 254
86 Successful Passes Percentage 78
11 Key Passes 4
19 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

17 Tackles 21
47 Duels Won 42
2 Interceptions 8
0 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 10
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera Defender
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori Defender
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié
Defender72'
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Midfielder
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi
Midfielder90+3'
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Midfielder
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Defender73'
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka Attacker
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Attacker
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli
Attacker90+3'
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Attacker
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres
Attacker73'
Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

13
Max Weiß
Max Weiß Goalkeeper
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Defender
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys
Defender82'
6
Axel Tuanzebe
Axel Tuanzebe Defender
23
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires Defender
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu Midfielder
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent
Midfielder71'
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
16
Florentino
Florentino Midfielder
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse
Midfielder78'
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Midfielder
7
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Attacker82'
28
Hannibal
Hannibal Midfielder
25
Zeki Amdouni
Zeki Amdouni
Attacker70'
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Lucas Pires
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Martinelli → Leandro Trossard
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Martín Zubimendi → Martin Ødegaard
10th Substitution
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Zian Flemming
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
Event
Jacob Bruun Larsen → Loum Tchaouna
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Bashir Humphreys → Maxime Estève
7th Substitution
78'
Event
James Ward-Prowse → Florentino
6th Substitution
Event
Viktor Gyökeres → Kai Havertz
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Myles Lewis-Skelly → Eberechi Eze
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Piero Hincapié → Riccardo Calafiori
3rd Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Josh Laurent → Lesley Ugochukwu
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Zeki Amdouni → Hannibal
1st Substitution
Event
Kai Havertz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kai Havertz
Header / 1st Goal
37'
28'
Event
Hannibal
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zian Flemming receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Martin Zubimendi Ibanez comes on for Martin Odegaard.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Pires Silva receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silva replaces Leandro Trossard.
88
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys is on, and Maxime Esteve is off.
82
Update Update
Jacob Bruun Larsen is on, and Loum Tchaouna is off.
78
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse is on, and Florentino Ibrain Morris Luis is off.
73
Update Update
Myles Lewis Skelly comes on for Eberechi Eze.
73
Update Update
Viktor Gyokeres comes on for Kai Havertz.
72
Update Update
Piero Hincapie comes on for Riccardo Calafiori.
71
Substitution Substitution
Josh Laurent is substituted for Chimuanya Ugochukwu.
70
Update Update
Zeki Amdouni is on, and Hannibal Mejbri is off.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kai Havertz receives a yellow card.
60
Attempt Attempt
Bukayo Saka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Hannibal Mejbri attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze's header is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
51
Attempt Attempt
Jaidon Anthony takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bukayo Saka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Martin Odegaard takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Update Update
Kai Havertz scores with a header.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kai Havertz scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Bukayo Saka.
31
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Eberechi Eze takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hannibal Mejbri receives a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Hannibal Mejbri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
14
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Bukayo Saka's left-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Dos Santos Magalhaes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Loum Tchaouna takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Florentino Ibrain Morris Luis takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Arsenal 1-0 Burnley. Structural assessment: Arsenal exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.